The Tampa Bay Rays (53-37) meet the Atlanta Braves (44-45) Friday to start a three-game series at Truist Park. Game 1’s first pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rays vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 0-0.
RHP Michael Wacha is Tampa Bay’s projected starter. Wacha is 2-2 with a 4.87 ERA (57 1/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.33 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 over 10 starts and five relief appearances.
- Last outing: Win, 8-1 with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB and 6 K July 7 vs. the Cleveland Indians.
- vs. Braves on the current roster: 87 at-bats with .368/.417/.494 slash line, 12/8 K/BB, 3 HR and 11 RBIs.
RHP Charlie Morton is on the mound for the Braves. Morton is 8-3 with a 3.64 ERA (99 IP, 40 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 across 18 starts.
- Last outing: Win, 5-0, with 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 7 K at the Miami Marlins last Friday.
- 2021 home splits: 5-1 with a 4.21 ERA (57 2/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.18 WHIP and 3.9 K/BB rate over 11 starts.
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Rays at Braves odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:35 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Rays +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Braves -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Rays +1.5 (-175) | Braves -1.5 (+145)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
Prediction
Braves 5, Rays 2
Money line (ML)
TAKE the BRAVES (-155) FIRST 5 INNINGS for 1 unit since they have the far better starter on the hill, and we can avoid Atlanta’s bullpen from choking away the game.
Morton has quickly established himself as Atlanta’s ace in his first season with the ball club, and he leads the rotation in FIP, wins and strikeouts per nine innings.
Also, Morton was on Tampa Bay’s AL Pennant winning staff last season and went 3-1 for the Rays in the playoffs with a 2.70 ERA (20 IP, 6 ER), five walks and 23 strikeouts over four starts.
Not only does Morton have the motivation to get his Braves onto a winning track to get back into playoff contention, but I expect Morton to be a little more dialed in facing his former team that could win 100 games this year.
Furthermore, the Braves acquired OF Joc Pederson from the Chicago Cubs via trade Thursday because the NL East is still wide open, and even though All-Star Ronald Acuna Jr. suffered a season-ending knee injury, Atlanta still thinks it can win the division.
On the other side, Wacha is at the bottom of Tampa Bay’s rotation with the worst ERA, FIP, WHIP and home runs per nine-inning rate out of the five starters.
However, since Atlanta’s bullpen is far worse than Tampa’s (the Braves relievers are 11-20 and are a bottom-10 unit in xFIP and K-BB%), let’s stick with the BRAVES (-135) FIRST 5 INNINGS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS because the Braves have a terrible 27.5% cover rate as a home favorite this season (11-29 ATS) while the Rays have a stellar 79.2% cover rate as a road underdog (19-5 ATS).
Moreover, I don’t trust Atlanta’s bullpen to lock down a win and given those cover rates listed above, the Braves -1.5 (+155) isn’t a fat enough payout.
Over/Under (O/U)
Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (+100) for a quarter unit if at all because I much prefer Atlanta’s First 5 Innings money line more than the total, but Rays-Braves opened with a 9-run total before being steamed down so “sharp” money is on the Under.
And while Wacha is certainly the weaker pitcher in this matchup, Atlanta’s lineup is missing Acuna Jr. and OF Marcell Ozuna so it should be easier for Wacha to navigate.
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