The Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs meet for Game 1 of their 1st-round Eastern Conference playoff series Monday at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Below, we look at the Lightning vs. Maple Leafs odds and lines, and make our expert NHL picks, predictions and bets.
The Lightning, winners of the past two Stanley Cups, ended up splitting the regular-season series with the Maple Leafs. Both teams won twice in four meetings, with the road team picking up a pair of victories.
The Maple Leafs haven’t won a playoff series since 2004, so there will be a lot more pressure on them than the defending champs. Toronto has picked up victories in 38 of its last 53 games at home.
Lightning at Maple Leafs odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:13 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Lightning +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Maple Leafs -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Lightning +1.5 (-250) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+180)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
Lightning at Maple Leafs projected goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy (39-18-5, 2.49 GAA, .916 SV%, 2 SO – regular season) vs. Jack Campbell (31-9-6, 2.64 GAA, .914 SV%, 5 SO – regular season)
Vasilevskiy had another tremendous regular season, but he was beatable on the road. He was 19-10-1 with a 2.77 GAA and .912 SV% and no shutouts no the road. He was 2-1-1 vs. Toronto in the regular season, posting a 2.97 GAA and .919 SV%.
Campbell was “M’m! M’m! Good!” in the final month of the season, as “Soup” went 7-0-2 with a 2.59 GAA and .915 SV% across 8 starts and 1 relief appearance in April. That includes a 32-save performance in a 6-2 win at Tampa April 4.
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Lightning at Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Prediction
Lightning 4, Maple Leafs 3
Money line
The LIGHTNING (+105) being underdogs in this series opener, and in the series odds, is ludicrous.
The Maple Leafs may have had a great regular season and are a team that boasts 60-goal scorer C Auston Matthews, but this is a team that has had terrible luck in the postseason. Toronto has failed to win a Stanley Cup since 1967 and failed to even make it to the second round since 2004. Until it shows it has changed its postseason fortunes, fade the Leafs hard.
Against the spread
The Lightning +1.5 (-250) are too costly if you’re looking for some insurance and don’t trust the two-time defending champs straight up.
AVOID.
Over/Under
OVER 6.5 (-108) is worth a small-unit play.
The Over has dominated for Tampa lately, going 8-1 in its last 9 games overall and 4-1 in its last 5 outings on the road. The Over is also 7-3 in the previous 10 contests where the Lightning were underdogs.
It’s all about the Over for the Leafs, too. The Over is 32-14-6 in their last 52 games as a favorite and 38-15-7 in their last 60 overall. Toronto does it with high scoring and not with defense.
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