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The Tampa Bay Lightning (25-16-3) and the Toronto Maple Leafs (29-16-2) meet Monday at Scotiabank Arena. Puck drop is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (NHL Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Lightning vs. Maple Leafs odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
Season series: Maple Leafs lead 2-0
The Maple Leafs won 5-3 in the most recent meeting Nov. 30 in Tampa, as a moderate favorite (-134) as the Over (6) cashed. Toronto also won 5-2 at home in the first meeting as a favorite (-132) on Oct. 21 as the Over (6.5) again hit.
Tampa Bay posted back-to-back wins at Amalie Arena against the Anaheim Ducks and Detroit Red Wings, and it has posted a 5-1-1 mark in the past 7 games since Jan. 7. The Over is on a 3-0-1 run in the previous 4 outings, too.
Toronto fell behind 3-0 in Montreal on Saturday, but it rattled off 7 unanswered goals for a 7-3 victory as the Over (6) came in. The Leafs have won 2 in a row, halting a 3-game skid, while cashing the Over in each of the victories.
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Lightning at Maple Leafs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:01 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Lightning -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Maple Leafs -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Lightning +1.5 (-275) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+220)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Lightning at Maple Leafs projected goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy (20-13-2, 2.35 GAA, .916 SV%, 2 SO) vs. Joseph Woll (16-8-0, 2.68 GAA, .907 SV%, 1 SO)
Vasilevskiy turned aside 39 of the 40 shots he faced Saturday in a 5-1 win over Detroit. He improved to 4-3-1 with a 2.24 GAA and .922 SV% in 8 starts in January.
However, while he has had a lot of success lately, he is 0-2-0 with an 8.13 GAA and .810 SV% in 2 starts against the Leafs this season. He allowed 4 goals on 28 shots in a 5-3 loss Nov. 30 in Tampa, and he was pulled midway through a 5-2 loss in Toronto Oct. 21, allowing 4 goals on just 14 shots.
Woll allowed 3 goals on 35 shots in that comeback win in Montreal Saturday. He has won back-to-back wins, and he has a 5-2-0 record in 7 January starts despite a subpar 3.15 GAA and .896 SV%.
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Lightning at Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Prediction
Maple Leafs 4, Lightning 3
Moneyline
The MAPLE LEAFS (-110) are a solid play in this home matchup against its Atlantic Division rivals, the Lightning (-110).
While Toronto has won 2 in a row, and 7 of the past 10 games, Tampa Bay is playing good hockey lately, too.
However, the difference here is that the first 2 games have gone in favor of the Maple Leafs, and they’ve treated Vasilevskiy poorly in 2 matchups this season.
Puck line/Against the spread
The Lightning +1.5 (-275) will cost you nearly 3 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward.
Even if you wanted some insurance here, and you were to toss Tampa Bay into a multi-leg NHL or cross-sport parlay, including the Lightning kills all the value of your ticket.
AVOID.
Over/Under
OVER 6 (-120) might be the best play here.
The Over has cashed in the past 2 games for the Leafs, as Toronto has re-discovered its scoring touch with 11 goals. It has also allowed at least 3 goals in 5 consecutive games, or 3.8 goals per game.
For the Lightning, they’ve cashed high on the total at a 4-0-1 clip in the past 5 games, while cashing the Over in both meetings with the Leafs so far this season.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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