The Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs meet in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals on Thursday. The Maple Leafs lead the series 3-1. Puck drop from Scotiabank Arena is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Lightning vs. Maple Leafs odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
The Lightning suffered back-to-back overtime losses on home ice in Game 3 (4-3, Saturday) and Game 4 (5-4, Monday) as the Maple Leafs have pushed Tampa Bay to the brink.
Tampa Bay held a 4-1 lead in Game 4 heading into the 3rd period, but Toronto got 2 goals from C Auston Matthews, including a power play marker, and D Morgan Rielly tied the game 4-4, helping to force overtime. C Alex Kerfoot was the hero in the extra session, taking advantage of a tripping call on Lightning D Mikhail Sergachev.
The Maple Leafs are looking to win their first playoff series since 2004. The last time they led a series 3-1 was in 2021 when they fell on home ice in Game 5 in overtime against the Montreal Canadiens en route to dropping the series.
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Lightning at Maple Leafs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:20 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Lightning +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Maple Leafs -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Lightning +1.5 (-210) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Lightning at Maple Leafs projected goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy (34-22-4, 2.65 GAA, .915 SV%, 4 SO – regular season) vs. Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO – regular season)
Vasilevskiy couldn’t hold a 4-1 lead in Game 4, allowing Matthews to get him twice, Rielly to tie it up, and Kerfoot to beat him in overtime. Vassy is just 1-3-0 with a 4.33 GAA and .856 SV% through the first 4 games, which is easily his worst playoff performance since 2019.
Samsonov turned aside 27 of the 31 shots he faced in Game 4. While he has 3 wins in 4 starts, he has a subpar 3.72 GAA and .876 SV% in this series. G Matt Murray (concussion) has resumed practicing, and if Samsonov continues to be rather mediocre, it wouldn’t be shocking to see Murray at some point soon.
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Lightning at Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Prediction
Lightning 4, Maple Leafs 3
Moneyline
The LIGHTNING (+130) are worth a look, as you need to pick against the Maple Leafs until they prove they can win an elimination game. Toronto has lost its last 9 elimination games when it has had a chance to advance.
Carolina and Boston had chances to close out a series in the past couple of days on home ice, only to suffer disappointment. I think Tampa Bay is going to join the club and force this series back to Central Florida.
Puck line/Against the spread
The Lightning +1.5 (-210) will cost you over 2 times your potential return, and that’s just too much risk for not enough reward. Just play the Lightning straight up.
PASS.
Over/Under
The OVER 6.5 (-115) is the play again in Game 5.
We have had 9 or more goals in 3 of the first 4 games in this series, with the Over cashing in each matchup. The Over has cashed in 5 straight meetings between these clubs dating back to the final regular-season meeting on April 11.
There has been an average of 8.8 goals per game in this series, and we should see another high-scoring affair in Hogtown.
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