The Tampa Bay Lightning visit the Toronto Maple Leafs Thursday for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals. Puck drop from Scotiabank Arena is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Lightning vs. Maple Leafs odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
The Lightning opened last season’s playoffs with a 5-0 stinker in Game 1 in Toronto. Tampa Bay wasn’t about to let that happen again.
Light-scoring Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, who hadn’t scored a goal in the final 20 regular-season games, opened the scoring. Anthony Cirelli then took advantage of a dumb Leafs turnover, beating a helpless Ilya Samsonov, and you could hear a pin drop at Scotiabank Arena after just 7:18.
A T.J. Brodie holding penalty late in the period gave the Lightning a chance on the power play, and Nikita Kucherov took advantage, scoring with 3.6 seconds left to stun Toronto, as the Lightning jumped out to a 3-0 lead in the opening game Tuesday night.
The Leafs posted a pair of power-play goals from Ryan O’Reilly and Williams Nylander, and suddenly it was just 3-2. Toronto had life, the building was alive, and all appeared to be headed in the right direction. Then, a slash on David Kampf led to a Brayden Point PPG.
Still, at 4-2, it wasn’t lights out, but an ugly hit and match penalty on Michael Bunting sucked all the air out of Toronto’s sails. Corey Perry snuck one in on the pipe, which Toronto challenged. It was upheld, and a penalty assessed for an incorrect challenge. Down 2 men, Point struck again on the power play, and it was good night, Toronto.
The teams exchanged goals in the 3rd, ending in a football score, with the Buccaneers 7, Argonauts 3. I mean, Lightning 7, Leafs 3.
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Lightning at Maple Leafs Game 2 odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 8:54 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Lightning +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Maple Leafs -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Lightning +1.5 (-190) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Lightning at Maple Leafs Game 2 projected goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy (34-22-4, 2.65 GAA, .915 SV%, 4 SO – regular season) vs. Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO – regular season)
Vasilevskiy allowed 3 goals on 31 shots, with 2 of the markers with the game still in question coming on the man advantage. He allowed a late, meaningless goal to Calle Jarnkrok on a nice hockey play, but it wasn’t a big deal. Vasilevskiy looks locked in for the postseason.
Samsonov slipped to 1-7-0 all-time in the postseason with his Game 1 loss, and it’s one of the reasons the Capitals didn’t commit to him long-term, making him available to the Leafs as a UFA last summer. He had a dynamite regular season, but the ugly playoff streak continued.
It wasn’t all Sammy’s fault, however, as the Leafs put him in some untenable situations early, going shorthanded so many times. Really, he made 1, maybe 2, bad reads, so the loss shouldn’t be placed solely at his feet. Joseph Woll made his playoff debut to start the 3rd period, giving Samsonov a mental break.
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Lightning at Maple Leafs Game 2 picks and predictions
Prediction
Maple Leafs 5, Lightning 3
Moneyline
The MAPLE LEAFS (-160) are a risky play in what is a must-win situation before the series shifts to Tampa for Games 3 and 4. If you thought the Leafs had pressure on them heading into Game 1, it will be that times 100 in this contest.
The Lightning (+135) took advantage of some undisciplined play by the Leafs in Game 1, and I expect that coach Sheldon Keefe and his staff will address that rather loudly before Thursday’s game. Look for the Leafs to fire out of the chute and play much better in Game 2, although it’s super hard to back a team which was boat-raced by 4 in their own barn 48 hours ago.
Puck line/Against the spread
The MAPLE LEAFS -1.5 (+155) are also worth a look on the puck line.
After a 2-1 OT loss in Boston April 6, the Leafs bounced back with a 7-1 win over the Montreal Canadiens. Yes, it’s much different, as the Habs missed the playoffs, but the past 6 times Toronto lost to close out the regular season, it responded with a win. In 5 of those games, Toronto covered the puck line, too.
Over/Under
The Lightning managed to take care of the OVER 6 (-120) in Game 1 on their own. I expect Samsonov not to be placed in so many bad situations, and for the Leafs to be a little more urgent on the offensive end. We should see a more balanced game, with the home side coming out on top this time.
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