The Tampa Bay Lightning (46-30-6) visit the Toronto Maple Leafs (50-21-11) on Tuesday for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals. Puck drop from Scotiabank Arena is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Lightning vs. Maple Leafs odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
The Lightning and Maple Leafs renew playoff acquaintances for the 2nd consecutive season. Tampa Bay edged Toronto 4-3 in the opening round last year, including a 2-1 win at Scotiabank Arena in Game 7.
Tampa Bay struggled down the stretch in the regular season, winning just once in the final 5 games and posting a 4-8-0 record in its last 12 outings. That includes a 4-3 loss on home ice against the Maple Leafs in the most recent meeting last Tuesday.
The Lightning won 4-3 in OT in the first meeting on Dec. 3 at Amalie Arena. The Leafs won the final 2 regular-season meetings, including a 4-1 win on Dec. 20 in the only meeting in Ontario.
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Lightning at Maple Leafs Game 1 odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:05 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Lightning +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Maple Leafs -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Lightning +1.5 (-200) | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: +100 | U: -120)
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Lightning at Maple Leafs Game 1 projected goalies
Andrei Vasilevskiy (34-22-4, 2.65 GAA, .915 SV%, 4 SO) vs. Ilya Samsonov (27-10-5, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%, 4 SO)
Vasilevskiy has won 2 Stanley Cups, and he isn’t going to go quietly into the night. At the same time, there are questions about the 28-year-old, as he allowed 10 goals on 61 shots in the final 2 regular-season games, including a 4-3 loss against the Maple Leafs in Tampa last Tuesday.
Samsonov closed the season on fire, going 3-1-1 with a 1.25 GAA and .959 SV% in his final 5 regular-season outings, including a 31-save shutout in Ottawa on April 1. He did not face the Lightning in 3 regular-season meetings.
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Lightning at Maple Leafs Game 1 picks and predictions
Prediction
Maple Leafs 4, Lightning 2
Moneyline
The MAPLE LEAFS (-155) are a nice play as moderate favorites on home ice.
The Leafs haven’t won a playoff series since 2004, while the Lightning have hoisted the Stanley Cup twice in the past 3 seasons and played for another title last year. However, Tampa Bay has looked quite beatable this season, not playing its usual dominating style. Is this the year Toronto finally gets over the hump for its championship-starved fans?
Well, this is just 1 game, but a loss in the series opener would be a crusher. Look for Toronto to get it done at home.
Puck line/Against the spread
The MAPLE LEAFS -1.5 (+165) are worth a roll of the dice on the puck line, but it might take an empty-net goal to get this bet over the hump. Toronto won and covered the only home meeting this season against Tampa Bay by a 4-1 score, cashing as a -134 favorite.
The Lightning are also 1-6 in the past 7 on the road, and 4-11 in the past 15 against winning teams. The Leafs should fire out of the chute quickly and hang on for the win and cover, drawing first blood in the series.
Over/Under
I expect the Over/Under 6 to come right down on the number. If there was a lean, it would be to the Over, which has cashed in 7 of the past 9 in the series.
The Over is also 5-1 in the past 6 in the Conference Quarterfinals round for the Lightning, while also going 5-1 in the past 6 Conference Quarterfinals games for the Leafs, too.
Still, I’d take a PASS, and just focus on the moneyline and puck line.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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