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The Tampa Bay Lightning (1-1-0) and the Ottawa Senators (1-1-0) meet Sunday at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (NHL Network). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Lightning vs. Senators odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.
The Lightning opened with a 5-3 win at home Tuesday against the Nashville Predators, but it was on the short end of a 6-4 road loss against the Detroit Red Wings on Saturday. Now, it faces the quick turnaround and a border crossing.
The Senators lost 5-3 on the road against the Carolina Hurricanes Wednesday, before bouncing back for a 5-2 home win against the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday afternoon. The Over is 2-0 for Ottawa so far, with the Senators seeing an average of 7.5 goals per game so far.
Tampa Bay has dropped 9 straight games when playing on no rest, last winning Dec. 29 against the New York Rangers. The Over is 3-1-1 in the past 5 games when working on no rest.
For Ottawa, it went 6-6 in 12 games last season when playing on no rest, while going 7-5 on the puck line. The Under is 8-3 in the past 11 when playing on no rest, too.
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Lightning at Senators odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:39 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Lightning -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Senators -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Lightning +1.5 (-250) | Senators -1.5 (+195)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -125 | U: +105)
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Lightning at Senators projected goalies
Matt Tomkins (making NHL debut) vs. Joonas Korpisalo (0-1-0, 5.05 GAA, .881 SV%)
After Jonas Johansson started in Detroit on Saturday, stopping 36 of the 41 shots he faced in a loss, it will be Tomkins getting the starting nod for the visitors on Sunday. It will also be his NHL debut. The former Ohio State Buckeyes backstop went 20-12-0 with a 2.53 GAA and .911 SV% with 2 SO in 32 games for Farjestads BK Karlstad in the Swedish Hockey League.
Johansson and Tomkins are the goaltender duo, at least until Thanksgiving in late November, as Andrei Vasilevskiy recovers from back surgery.
Korpisalo made his team debut in Carolina in the regular-season opener Wednesday, and he was peppered for 42 shots, allowing 5 goals in the setback.
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Lightning at Senators picks and predictions
Prediction
Senators 5, Lightning 3
Moneyline
The SENATORS (-115) are a solid value at home, especially against the rookie goalie making his debut. Coach D.J. Smith used Anton Forsberg in Saturday’s game, saving Korpisalo for the more difficult opponent. It should pay off with a victory.
The Lightning (-105) have dropped each of the past 9 games when playing on no rest, and confidence isn’t high that Tomkins will be able to help them snap that skid in his NHL debut.
Puck line/Against the spread
The SENATORS -1.5 (+195) are worth playing very lightly on the puck line for a chance to nearly double up.
Ottawa went a respectable 7-5 on the puck line last season in 12 games when playing on no rest. On the flip side, the Lightning +1.5 (-250) have not only lost 9 in a row in the 2nd end of a back-to-back set, they’re 0-9 on the puck line in those games, too.
Over/Under
OVER 6.5 (-125) is worth a look in Sunday’s game, a back-to-back for both teams.
The Over has cashed in both games for the Senators so far, averaging 4.0 goals per game, while allowing 3.5 GPG. The Lightning has also hit the Over in both outings to date, both scoring and allowing 4.5 GPG. And if that doesn’t make you feel warm and fuzzy inside, the Over has cashed in 4 straight meetings between these teams, while going 7-2 in the previous 9 in the series.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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