The 6-4 Auburn Tigers have won three games in a row heading into their season-day game against the 8-3 New Mexico State Aggies.
Auburn is coming off its best win of the season, dismantling Arkansas 48-10 in a game that was never close.
New Mexico State meanwhile has been great this season but may be without quarterback Diego Pavia on Saturday.
Pavia’s questionable tag and Auburn’s recent success have the Tigers as 23.5-point favorites according to BetMGM.
Does the tale of the tape tell us this game could be closer than everyone expects?
As always, we’ll start with the most important players on the field, the quarterbacks.
Auburn quarterback [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] has become an extremely valuable member of [autotag]Hugh Freeze[/autotag]’s offense after a sub-par start to the season.
The junior has thrown for 8 touchdowns during Auburn’s three game win streak, throwing 2 interceptions and scoring another touchdown on the ground.
The Michigan State transfer finally has the keys to the offense, and he is peaking at the right time ahead of the Iron Bowl in Jordan-Hare and an eventual bowl game.
New Mexico State quarterback [autotag]Diego Pavia[/autotag] is one of the best small conference signal-callers in the nation.
Pavia has thrown for 2,257 yards this season. He is also the team’s leading rusher with 703 rushing yards.
The Aggies quarterback has scored 24 total touchdowns this year, making the gap between him and [autotag]Payton Thorne[/autotag] closer than some might believe.
His status is uncertain for this game however, and his health problems as well as inexperience against good competition give Thorne the edge.
Auburn gets the edge on the offensive line and skill positions as well. Running back [autotag]Jarquez Hunter[/autotag] is far and away the best player on the offensive side of the ball.
Hunter’s 853 scrimmage yards and 7 touchdowns lead all skill players in this game.
As for the big guys up front, the Tigers also have the clear edge, mostly due to the sheer size difference of the two units. The Aggies’ offensive line averages 307 pounds. Auburn’s big men average over 10 pounds more, at 317.4.
Auburn has the edge in every offensive category, although [autotag]Diego Pavia[/autotag] is a great player that Auburn will need to keep in check in he plays.
On the defensive side of the ball, the gap is more massive than my confusion the first time I walked into the Haley Center.
[autotag]Jalen McLeod[/autotag], [autotag]Eugene Asante[/autotag], and [autotag]Jaylin Simpson[/autotag] lead an Auburn unit that ranks second in the SEC in defensive efficiency.
The Tigers give up just 21.3 points per game to opponents, which is 31st in the country.
New Mexico State’s defense has actually been better this season in OPPG, as the Aggies have given up just 20.3 points per game this year. Those number have come in a very below-average Conference USA however.
The Aggies allowed Liberty to score 33 points on them earlier in the season, showing they have struggled against above-average competition.
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