After nearly a month for anticipation to build, we’re only a few days away from the College Football Playoff semifinals, and the No. 1 vs. No. 4 matchup offers narratives galore.
In the first corner, Michigan has been the talk of the nation all season after a sign-stealing scandal. Former assistant Connor Stalions resigned amid an NCAA investigation into the Wolverines illegally obtaining other teams’ signals and plays, and head coach Jim Harbaugh was suspended from the sidelines for the final three games of the regular season. The team has rallied around the attention and investigation, but even beyond this season, there are questions to answer for Michigan. This is the third consecutive year the Wolverines have entered the playoff as Big Ten champions and one of the top two seeds, and they got obliterated by Georgia 34-11 two years ago before losing to TCU last year despite being 7.5-point favorites. Can Harbaugh get over the playoff hump?
Alabama has had something to prove all year after a Week 2 home loss to Texas. The Crimson Tide followed that game with a 17-3 victory over South Florida, and proclamations of Nick Saban’s decline rang from every talk show in the country. Alabama responded by ending the season on a 10-game win streak, culminating in an upset win over Georgia in the SEC Championship for Saban’s ninth conference title in the past 15 years. Even then, however, more controversy emerged when the Tide got the final playoff spot over an undefeated Florida State team that won the ACC.
With all the talk about narratives swirling around, it can be easy to lose sight of who is actually going to play. Let’s take a look at Alabama and Michigan on paper and see who should have the advantage on New Year’s Day.
| Jalen Milroe (Alabama) | J.J. McCarthy (Michigan) | |
| Attempts | 261 | 287 |
| Completions | 171 | 213 |
| Completion % | 65.5% | 74.2% |
| Pass Yards | 2,718 | 2,630 |
| Yards/Att. | 10.4 | 9.2 |
| Pass TDs | 23 | 19 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 4 |
| Rushing Yards | 468 | 146 |
| Rush TDs | 12 | 3 |
Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy has the arm talent and physical ability to make an NFL scout raise an eyebrow, but Milroe’s got him beat at his own game. The Michigan quarterback is 64th in the nation in passing yards per game and threw eight passes in a win over Penn State, but his fans have pointed to his efficiency in his small sample size. Milroe has more passing yards and touchdowns on fewer attempts and averages more yards per attempt despite a lower completion percentage. Part of the discrepancy in stats is the Wolverines rarely ask McCarthy to push the ball downfield, but I’d argue it’s a positive that Alabama trusts Milroe enough to let him throw go balls early and often. The Crimson Tide quarterback is one of the biggest dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation, and he’s shown the pocket precision to match over the past two months. McCarthy is not bad, but there aren’t five college quarterbacks better than Milroe right now.
Advantage: Alabama
| Alabama RBs | Michigan RBs | |
| Attempts | 361 | 408 |
| Rush Yards | 1,671 | 1,736 |
| Avg, | 4.63 | 4.25 |
| Rush TDs | 15 | 29 |
| Receptions | 27 | 47 |
| Rec. Yards | 255 | 350 |
| Rec. TDs | 2 | 0 |
| Jace McClellan (Alabama) | Blake Corum (Michigan) | |
| Attempts | 166 | 218 |
| Rush Yards | 803 | 1,028 |
| Avg. | 4.84 | 4.72 |
| Rush TDs | 6 | 24 |
| Receptions | 13 | 14 |
| Rec. Yards | 126 | 82 |
| Rec. TDs | 0 | 0 |
Alabama’s running backs might have the slight edge on per-carry efficiency but don’t discount the advantage of true bruisers. The Wolverines have beat the Nittany Lions without throwing a pass in the entire second half because Blake Corum is so good at churning out first-down conversions from two or three yards away. Michigan surrendered only 44 tackles for loss this season, the fourth-fewest in the country. If the Wolverines can consistently keep themselves within four yards of the first-down marker, the Crimson Tide defense will need the game of its life to keep them out of the red zone.
Advantage: Michigan
| Jermaine Burton (Alabama) | Roman Wilson (Michigan) | |
| Receptions | 35 | 41 |
| Rec. Yards | 777 | 662 |
| Avg. | 22.2 | 16.1 |
| TDs | 8 | 11 |
We talked earlier about how the Wolverines don’t unleash their passing attack often, but that’s not the only reason they don’t measure up to the Crimson Tide. Burton is one of the best deep threats in college football with nine receptions of 40 or more yards. That’s more than 25% of his receptions for those doing quick math at home. His speed forces opposing defenses to respect him, giving sophomore Isaiah Bond (the Iron Bowl hero) space to work the rest of the field. The combination is simple but quite nauseating for defensive coordinators, especially with how willing Milroe is to let the ball fly.
Advantage: Alabama
| Alabama | Michigan | |
| Sacks Allowed | 43.0 (123rd) | 18.0 (32nd) |
| Yards/Rush | 4.33 (66th) | 4.27 (71st) |
Most of the perception of Alabama’s offensive line has been negative this season, and when you see they are within the bottom 10 in the FBS in sacks allowed, it makes sense. However, hear me out. Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe ended the season with an average time to throw of 3.5 seconds. The next-highest Power 5 quarterback with at least 300 dropbacks finished at 3.16 seconds. The Crimson Tide earned a PFF pass-blocking grade of 68.0 or higher in eight of their final ten games, and Alabama ended the season as the site’s third-best run-blocking team across the entire nation. The Crimson Tide line is the biggest factor in this game, but if they can maintain the form they’ve had since the beginning of November, I think they have the slightest of edges.
Advantage: Alabama
| Alabama | Michigan | |
| Sacks | 38.0 (11th) | 32.0 (34th) |
| Tackles for Loss | 82.0 (33rd) | 72.0 (55th) |
| Yards/Carry Allowed | 3.70 (33rd) | 2.93 (6th) |
This is the battle we have circled. The Alabama defense excels at splash plays led by the athletic Dallas Turner. If Michigan drops back to pass more than 25 times on Monday, expect McCarthy to need to scramble away from Turner multiple times. The Wolverines were arguably the best defense in the country this season, however, and the defensive line played so small role in that. They didn’t break into the backfield quite as often as the Crimson Tide, but they allowed one team to run for more than 120 yards. Alabama is the most formidable offense on the Michigan schedule so far, and the Crimson Tide proved their mettle against Georgia, but we’ll give the slight edge to that down-to-down consistency.
Advantage: Michigan
| Alabama | Michigan | |
| Yards/Attempt Allowed | 6.4 (17th) | 5.8 (6th) |
| Comp. % Allowed | 59.1% (43rd) | 54.5% (7th) |
| Pass TDs Allowed | 14 (16th) | 7 (1st) |
| Interceptions | 12 (35th) | 16 (8th) |
This is the Wolverines’ path to victory. Alabama has a fine secondary, a very good one even, but the Crimson Tide struggled to lock down Texas, the best receiving core they’ve faced to date. Michigan is not only the best pass defense in the country, but they’ve played Marvin Harrison Jr. and contained him to 118 yards (you have to grade that on a curve, he has six 120-yard games this year). Defensive back Mike Sainristil has become a nightmarish wrecking ball for opponents, with 30 tackles and five interceptions. The Michigan defense is terrifying, and it is anchored by its pass defense.
Advantage: Michigan
We’ve broken down the six major offensive and defensive positions groups, and we’ve got a 3-3 tie. That should excite everyone who wants a great game, but we’re here to answer which team should feel better about their chances. In a toss-up, always trust the advantage at quarterback and head coach. Milroe has emerged as one of the best in the nation since conference play began, and Nick Saban has a 9-4 playoff record. The Crimson Tide haven’t lost a semifinal game since Ohio State and Ezekiel Elliott ran over them in 2014, and on paper, they shouldn’t start now.
Overall Advantage: Alabama