Ordinarily, I avoid taking the low-return picks when you’re taking one player against the field, but the race for the 2020 American League Cy Young Award got interesting in a hurry with preseason injuries.
As a result, the options for picking the Cy Young winner have slimmed down with three weeks to go until the season’s first pitch.
As of 5 p.m. ET Sunday, March 8, BetMGM has 12 other pitchers with odds of less than +3000:
- Gerrit Cole (+265)
- Justin Verlander (+600)
- Chris Sale (+650)
- Mike Clevinger (+1000)
- Blake Snell; Charlie Morton (+1100)
- Shane Bieber (+1600)
- Tyler Glasnow; Carlos Carrasco (+2000)
- Lucas Giolito; Zach Grienke; Corey Kluber (+2500)
American League Cy Young: Breaking down the field
The field is going to shift like a pendulum with spring training injuries to Sale and Snell. Both are expected to miss significant time, which will likely take them out of the running.
And Sunday afternoon, the Astros pulled Verlander after two innings of a scheduled four-inning start due to triceps soreness. There is no word on whether Verlander could miss any time, but it’s yet another injury to keep an eye on.
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One thing that is crystal clear is that BetMGM has a lot of faith in the Tampa Bay starting rotation. Three of the top eight plays are Rays (Snell, Morton and Glasnow). I don’t share that opinion because they’re reaching on expectation for both Snell (injured) and Glasnow (unproven). The club is formidable, but that prevents the Rays from relying on one or two guys and occasionally pushing them up in the rotation when scheduled off days or rainouts bring an ace’s start time back up.
Clevinger and Bieber are another tandem that are intriguing, but the Indians may not provide the consistent run support needed to post the numbers that make a player stand out in the Cy Young race.
Verlander remains a dominant pitcher and is coming off a 21-win, 300-strikeout year and was a whopping 7.8 games above replacement. But, at age 37, the wall for starting pitchers with his mileage numbers is getting closer (as evidenced by Sunday’s news).
But, if you’re betting on this race, you have to go with Cole, despite the small return on investment. He was a good in Pittsburgh but became elite when he went to Houston before the 2018 season. In two seasons with the Astros, Cole made 65 starts and posted a record of 35-10 with 602 strikeouts in 412 2/3 innings, a 0.962 WHIP and a 2.68 ERA. He now goes to the Yankees where he can expect a lot of run support every start and get the wins to match or surpass what he did with the Astros. New York has eyes on the Yankees 24/7 and he has the chance to be the big man in the Big Apple.
THE BET: Take Cole and don’t look back. If you’re looking for a long shot to drop a few bucks on, consider Minnesota’s Jose Berrios (+4000). He is the staff ace of a team capable of winning 100 games again this year. When he is on his game, he can be dominant. Consistency is all that’s missing and he will be playing from ahead. Don’t break the bank on him, but, at +4000, you don’t have to.
Want to get some action on MLB futures betting? Do you have what it takes to pick this season’s winners before the season even starts? Place legal sports bets online at BetMGM.
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