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The New York Yankees (57-39) and Baltimore Orioles (57-37) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series Saturday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is set for 4:05 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Yankees vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Orioles lead 5-3
RHP Gerrit Cole held the potent Baltimore Orioles lineup to 1 run over 6 innings in a 4-1 victory Friday. CF Aaron Judge parked his MLB leading 33rd home run and walked 4 times. This victory put the Yankees within 1 game of the Orioles for the lead in the AL East. New York is 32-20 on the road and 51-45 ATS on the season.
The Orioles remain atop the AL East despite falling Friday night to the Yankees. The only run Baltimore could manage was an RBI triple from 3B Ramon Urias. We did get a benches-clearing situation in the bottom of the 9th after Orioles LF Heston Kjerstad was hit around the ear flap of his helmet by RHP Clay Holmes‘ pitch. The Orioles are 29-21 at home on the season and 51-43 against the spread (ATS).
Yankees at Orioles projected starters
RHP Luis Gil vs. RHP Grayson Rodriguez
Gil (9-5, 3.27 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 96 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 9 K in 3-0 victory against the Boston Red Sox Sunday
- 2024 road splits: 4-2, 3.25 ERA (44 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 8 games
- Career vs. Orioles: 2-1, 4.61 ERA (13 2/3 IP, 7 ER), 14 H, 4 BB, 12 K in 3 starts
Rodriguez (11-3, 3.52 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 94 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 6-3 defeat at Oakland A’s Sunday
- 2024 home splits: 5-1, 2.27 ERA (43 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 7 starts
- Career vs. Yankees: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (12 IP, 0 ER), 8 H, 5 BB, 7 K in 2 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Yankees at Orioles odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Yankees +114 (bet $100 to win $114) | Orioles -134 (bet $134 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-192) | Orioles -1.5 (+158)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -122)
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Yankees at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 4, Yankees 3
Moneyline
BET ORIOLES (-134).
As much as I don’t like paying that kind of juice, I’m not willing to take the risk on the run line.
The Orioles have one of their horses on the mound, and while Rodriguez got beat in his last start, the expectation is that he’ll rebound against the arch-rival Yankees. He has not allowed an earned run against New York in his young career. Baltimore needs a confidence builder having lost 5 of their last 6 games. the majors, and they’re a strong play here. New York is 12-9 over its last 21 on the road and have won its last 2 starts with Cole on the mound.
After a brilliant start to the 2024 season, Gil has lost his last 4 starts. He seems to be regressing to the mean a bit, 17 ER over his last 16 1/3 innings pitched.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
As much as I like the Orioles to get this win, I’ll stick with the safer moneyline bet on this one.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 9 (-112).
The Orioles have gone Under in 3 straight games and have scored 2 or fewer runs in 4 straight.
The Yankees are 1-3-1 O/U in their last 4 games, scoring 4 or fewer in 4 straight and allowing 4 or fewer in 4 of their last 6.
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