Tag: Yankees Dodgers odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

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The New York Yankees and LA Dodgers meet in Game 2 of the best-of-7 World Series Saturday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Dodgers lead 1-0

L.A. won a wild one in Game 1 Friday 6-3 as -113 home favorites with the Over (8.5) hitting thanks to 1B Freddie Freeman’s walk-off grand slam in the 10th inning.

The Yankees did everything they could to steal Game 1 on the road, but they didn’t have the pitching to keep the Dodgers’ mighty bats muzzled long enough. DH Giancarlo Stanton hit a 2-run homer 412 feet into the night to give the Yanks a 2-1 lead in the 6th inning. They’d relinquish it and ultimately fold in extras.

Freeman is being heralded alongside Kirk Gibson, who hit a game-winning homer in the 1988 World Series while battling 2 hamstring injuries. Freeman, hobbled by a sprained ankle, hit the first pitch he saw in the 10th inning into the same vicinity as Gibson’s for the first walk-off grand slam in World Series history.

Yankees at Dodgers projected starters

LHP Carlos Rodon vs. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Rodon went 16-9 with a 3.96 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 175 innings over 32 regular-season starts. He’s 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 0.6 BB/9 and 13.8 K/9 in 14 1/3 postseason innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 5-2 win in 10 innings at Cleveland Guardians in Game 5 of ALCS Oct. 19
• 3 starts vs. LA in 2022: 1-1, 3.71 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 18 K in 17 IP

Yamamoto went 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 90 innings over 18 regular-season starts. He’s 1-0 with a 5.11 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 12 1/3 postseason innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 10-2 win at New York Mets in Game 4 of NLCS Oct. 17
• 1 career start vs. Yankees: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 2-1 win in 11 innings June 7 at Yankee Stadium

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Yankees at Dodgers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 1:16 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Yankees +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Dodgers -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-185) | Dodgers -1.5 (+150)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Yankees at Dodgers picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 3, Dodgers 2

Moneyline

BET YANKEES (+120).

Yankees OF Aaron Judge has to get it going, and there are no excuses. He’s hitting between possibly the best hitter in baseball in OF Juan Soto and the ALCS MVP in Stanton. Judge is hitting .167 with 2 homers and 6 RBIs over 36 postseason ABs.

What tilts the pendulum for me, though, is Rodon. Dodgers OF Mookie Betts is just 1-for-19 (.053) against him lifetime. Freeman is just 1-for-7 (.143), OF Teoscar Hernandez is 1-for-9 (.111), and DH Shohei Ohtani and INF Max Muncy are just 1-for-7 combined (.143)

Rodon was great in his last 2 postseason starts with 15 K’s over 10 2/3 innings. The YANKEES (+120) respond.

Run line/Against the spread

Yamamoto made 1 great start at Yankee Stadium this season, and he allowed just 2 hits over 7 shutout frames. Who got him, you ask? Judge hit a double. Again, he has to surface in this game.

Take AARON JUDGE OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI (-135).

Over/Under

The wind was blowing out pretty fairly in Game 1, and it took a heroic moment for that Over to hit. Believe me, I was among the Over bettors sweating it out. The wind is blowing out at a milder, 6-mph pace Saturday. The bats were quiet early, possibly settling in to the big stage.

Keeping in mind, I bet the Over in Game 1, I think that cash was a fluke. Both pitchers have good history against each team, and they’ve performed well in the playoffs.

Take the UNDER 8.5 (+100).

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The New York Yankees and LA Dodgers meet in Game 1 of the best-of-7 World Series Friday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Dodgers won 2-1

These teams met in a 3-game series at Yankee Stadium June 7-9. The Dodgers won June 7 as a moderate favorite (-160) by a 2-1 score. On June 8, the Dodgers routed the Yankees 11-3 as a slight ‘dog (-102) as the Over (8.5) hit, and New York salvaged the series finale with a 6-4 victory as an underdog (+120) as the Over (7) again connected.

The Yankees won in 4 games in the ALDS against the Kansas City Royals, although 2 of the games were decided by a single run, and the other 2 games were decided by 2 runs. The Under cashed in 3 of those 4 games.

In the ALCS, New York topped Cleveland in 5 games, although each of the 5 games were decided by 3 or fewer runs. The Over went 3-1-1 in the ALCS.

For the Dodgers, they were able to shake off the San Diego Padres in the NLDS, erasing a 2-1 series deficit. The Over went 3-1-1 in those games.

In the NLCS, LA topped the other New York team, the Mets, with 2 shutout victories, while winning in 6 games. LA managed 8 or more runs in 4 of those games, including 10 runs in both Games 4 and 6. The Over cashed in all 6 of the outings.

Yankees at Dodgers projected starters

RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Jack Flaherty

Cole (8-5, 3.41 ERA) made 17 regular-season starts. He had a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 95 innings.

• Last start: No-decision, 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 4 K in 6-3 home victory vs. Guardians in Game 2 of ALCS Oct. 15
• 2024 road splits (regular season): 5-3, 2.49 ERA (47 IP, 13 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 12 BB, 51 K, .198 opponents’ batting average (OBA) in 8 starts
• Career vs. Dodgers (regular season): 4-2, 5.01 ERA (46 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.35 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 8 starts
• Didn’t face LA in 2024 regular season
• 2024 postseason: 1-0, 3.31 ERA (16 1/3 IP), 1.53 WHIP, 12 K in 3 starts
• Career postseason: 11-6, 2.98 ERA (120 2/3 IP), 1.03 WHIP, 146 K in 20 starts

Flaherty (13-7, 3.17 ERA) made 28 regular-season starts. He had a 1.07 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 162 innings with the Tigers and Dodgers.

• Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 8 ER, 8 H (1 HR), 4 BB, 0 K in 12-6 loss at Mets in Game 5 of NLCS Oct. 18
• 2024 home splits (regular season): 5-4, 3.44 ERA (73 1/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 16 BB, 86 K, .238 OBA in 12 starts
• Career vs. Yankees (regular season): Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 1 start, an 11-4 home win July 1, 2023, with St. Louis Cardinals
• Didn’t face Yankees in 2024 regular season
• 2024 postseason: 1-2, 7.04 ERA (15 1/3 IP), 1.43 WHIP, 8 K in 3 starts
• Career postseason: 2-5, 4.91 ERA (40 1/3 IP), 1.39 WHIP, 39 K in 7 starts (8 appearances)

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Yankees at Dodgers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Thursday at 9:35 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Yankees +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Dodgers -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-200) | Dodgers -1.5 (+165)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Yankees at Dodgers picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Dodgers 4

Moneyline

The YANKEES (+105) are worth a look in the series opener on the road as they look to seize home-field advantage.

The pitching scales are tipped in favor of New York, as Cole is much more consistent than Flaherty. The latter has a dismal 7.04 ERA in 3 starts during the postseason so far.

The Dodgers (-125) won 2 of 3 games at Yankee Stadium back in June, but Cole didn’t appear in that series.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’re on the conservative side, backing Yankees +1.5 (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return. That’s a little too expensive, although if you were to fold it into a multi-leg parlay it is perfectly acceptable then.

However, as a standalone wager, backing New York on the run line is too much risk and not enough reward.

AVOID, and look to the moneyline instead.

Over/Under

OVER 8.5 (-110) is a solid play in Game 1, but go with a half-unit play at most.

There is some risk with the consistent Cole on the bump for the Yankees. However, the Dodgers cashed the Over in all 6 games with the Mets in the NLCS, while the total has gone high at a 9-1-1 clip in the postseason so far.

For the Yankees, the Over went 3-1-1 in the series with Cleveland, while splitting 4-4-1 in the 2024 postseason.

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