Yankees Astros picks prediction spread over/under betting line

The New York Yankees (64-28) and Houston Astros (59-32) are playing a doubleheader on Thursday, with Game 2 starting at 6:40 p.m. ET from Minute Maid Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Astros lead 3-2. They won the most recent meeting, 2-1 at home on June 30.

The Yankees boast the best record in baseball, and though they took 2 of 3 from the Red Sox before the All-Star break, they ended the first half 3-5 in their last 8 games. They lead the majors in runs (497) and slugging percentage (.445).

The Astros alternated wins and losses in their final 6 games of the first half, going 3-3 in their last 6. But they were red hot previously, breaking off a stretch of 8 straight wins amid a 12-2 span.

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Yankees at Astros projected starters

RHP Domingo German vs. RHP Luis Garcia

German makes his 1st start of the season. In 2021, he went 4-5 with a 4.58 ERA and 98 strikeouts in 98 1/3 innings.

German has pitched 5 times against the Astros, making 2 starts. He is 0-1 with a 4.82 ERA in 18 2/3 innings against Houston.

Garcia (7-5, 3.65 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.06 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 88 2/3 IP.

Earned win in June 30 start vs. Yankees with 5 1/3 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 2 BB and 6 K.
The Astros have won 5 straight games started by Garcia, a stretch in which he’s allowed 3 or fewer runs 4 times. He’s also pitched at least 5 innings in each of his last 5 starts.

Yankees at Astros odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:04 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Yankees +102 (bet $100 to win $102) | Astros -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees +1.5 (-200) | Astros -1.5 (+160)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Yankees at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Astros 4

Money line

The Astros have the advantage with this pitching matchup, considering German is making his season debut. However, German was sharp while rehabbing at the AAA level, pitching 10 scoreless innings and allowing just 4 hits with 5 strikeouts.

With their bullpen and powerful lineup, I still like the YANKEES (+102) to win outright against the Astros.

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Run line/Against the spread

Since I’m taking the Yanks on the moneyline, I’d rather not take them to cover the spread at -200. It’s not worth the juiced line, and I think they’ll beat the Astros straight-up.

PASS.

Over/Under

The Yankees completely shut down the Red Sox in the final 2 games of their series, allowing 3 total runs and outscoring them 27-3. Their bats have been on fire, scoring at least 4 runs in each of their last 5 games and a total of 44 in that span.

The Astros haven’t been scoring at as high of a clip, but now that they’re well-rested out of the All-Star break, I think this game goes OVER 8.5 (-120) the total line.

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The New York Yankees (56-20) and Houston Astros (47-27) meet for a Thursday 6:10 p.m. ET game at Minute Maid Park. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yankees vs. Astros odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Tied 2-2.

The Yankees and Astros played 4 games at Yankee Stadium last week. The top 2 clubs in the American League split that set, although Houston coughed up a couple of leads in the losses.

Astros pitching has caught fire of late. Despite a slew of recent games against both New York teams — with both owning top-10 OPS figures — Houston is 10-3 in its last 13 games with a 2.61 ERA, 0.99 WHIP over that stretch.

Yankees at Astros projected starters

RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Luis Garcia

Severino (4-2, 3.38 ERA) has registered a 1.07 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 through 72 IP in 13 starts.

A 2.0 home-runs-per-9 rate has led to a 4.61 ERA on the road (versus a 2.62 mark at home).
Facing Houston for a second straight start. Allowed 3 R, 5 H, 2 BB and 7 K in 6 IP in Sunday’s 4-2 loss at Yankee Stadium.

Garcia (5-5, 3.68 ERA) has logged a 1.07 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 71 IP over 13 starts.

His last start was June 22. Had his regular start Tuesday pushed back, though not due to injury.
Owns a 5.18 ERA, 1.9 HR/9 at home.

Yankees at Astros odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 2:16 p.m. ET.

Money line: Yankees -125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Astros +102 (bet $102 to win $100)
Run line (RL): Yankees -1.5 (+133) | Astros +1.5 (-165)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

Yankees at Astros picks and predictions

Prediction

Astros 5, Yankees 4

Money line

While New York is 23-5 in its last 28 games, they have played just 9 of those away from home. Over those 9 games, Yankee pitching has scuffled (4.96). Severino has struggled in general across all his road efforts.

With the one-off nature of this contest (due to schedule irregularities with the late start to the season), New York has the odd in-and-out, same-day schedule before heading to Cincinnati.

Figure Houston as more of an even-money proposition. TAKE THE ASTROS (+102).

Run line/Against the spread

Too. Much. Juice. Leverage is drowned out; PASS.

Over/Under

Both clubs own sets of Statcast quality-of-contact numbers that indicate better days ahead with the bats.

Both sides sport bullpen numbers tamped down by some favorable rates around the margins. Houston’s relief corps owns a .266 batting average on balls in play; New York’s has registered an even better (luckier) .257 BABIP.

TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-125).

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