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The Yale Bulldogs (23-9) and San Diego State Aztecs (25-10) tangle in an East Region 2nd-round game in Spokane on Sunday. The 13/5 match-up at Spokane Veterans Memorial Arena is slated to tip off at 9:40 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Yale vs. San Diego State odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Yale, which barely snuck past Brown in the Ivy League Tournament final last Sunday, upset 4-seed Auburn 78-76 as a 14-point underdog on Friday. Now 6-1 over its last 7 games, Yale is a slow-tempo, solidly-efficient team at both ends of the floor and one that does not turn the ball over.
Fifth-seed San Diego State, ranked No. 25 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, failed to cover a 6 1/2-point spread but defeated No. 11 UAB 69-65 in its Friday 1st-rounder. The Aztecs prevailed despite shooting 27.8% from distance (5 of 18) for a 4th time in their last 5 games.
Yale vs. San Diego State odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:42 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Yale +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | San Diego State -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Yale +5.5 (-110) | San Diego State -5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 129.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Yale vs. San Diego State picks and predictions
Prediction
San Diego State 68, Yale 64
Moneyline
Any profit is locked up in the middle. Would take Yale +220, so the Bulldogs are a lean. But better relative value can be found against the number.
PASS.
Against the spread
San Diego State is 4-8 ATS in non-conference games. The Aztecs are 2-4 ATS in neutral-site games.
The Bulldogs’ defensive rebounding is key. Yale was solid enough against Auburn Friday and is well-ranked, statistically, in that category. SDSU has edges at the rim and in free-throw frequency. The Aztecs are usually quite capable on the offensive glass, and for a team that doesn’t do much from 3-point-land, those 2nd-chance points will determine how successful SDSU is.
Yale is No. 79 on KenPom. SDSU has recently played No. 70 UNLV twice and No. 106 UAB; the Aztecs went 0-3 ATS in those contests.
BACK THE BULLDOGS +5.5 (-110).
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Over/Under
The Over is 5-2 across 7 SDSU tournament games.
Both teams have filed slow pace figures this season (KenPom rates Yale’s tempo as 327th). But a game inside 2 possessions would likely spiral the points the last 5 minutes. That projected closeness of the game, coupled with the Aztecs’ ability to draw fouls, makes the OVER 128.5 (-110) a solid zag play against the current.
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