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The Wyoming Cowboys (5-1, 2-0 Mountain West) and Air Force Falcons (5-0, 3-0) clash Saturday in Colorado Springs. Kickoff from Falcon Stadium is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Cowboys vs. Falcons odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Wyoming defeated Fresno State, then ranked No. 24 by the US LBM Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports, as a 6-point underdog last Saturday. A middle-of-the-pack Cowboys rush defense held FSU to just 38 yards, as UW won its 3rd straight game since losing 31-10 to current No. 11 Texas on Sept. 16.
The Falcons figure to test that UW run defense. Air Force runs the ball 60.8 times per game (most in the nation), and it leads FBS tackle football in rushing yards per game (329.8). The Falcons have 4 ball carriers who have registered over 250 yards.
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Wyoming at Air Force odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 10:30 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Wyoming +340 (bet $100 to win $3400) | Air Force -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Wyoming +11.5 (-110) | Air Force -11.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 41.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Wyoming at Air Force picks and predictions
Prediction
Air Force 28, Wyoming 14
Moneyline
Too much juice.
AVOID.
Against the spread
Air Force is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games. Wyoming is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games on the road.
Wyoming took last year’s meeting 17-14 but you can expect Air Force to get a measure of retribution on this contest at home. Both teams like to run the ball a lot. The Cowboys are adequate in succeeding on the ground; Air Force is prolific.
The Falcons are exceptional when it comes to staying on schedule. Their 5.4 yards per carry helps, and so do some well-timed, change-of-pace pass plays (82.0 YPG). Air Force piles up chain-moving drives with a 4-down philosophy, and when it reaches the red zone, it converts. USAFA’s 85% touchdown rate in the red zone ranks 2nd in the nation.
Air Force is quite good at defending on 1st downs and limiting big plays. UW’s 35.2% 3rd-down conversion rate ranks 11th in the MWC.
Look for some stalled Wyoming drives and an early Air Force lead. The Cowboys’ pass game and Falcons’ aerial defense is not a good match-up for the visitors, and that lead growing past a couple of scores is likely enough.
BACK THE FALCONS -11.5 (-110).
Over/Under
The projected game flow makes the Over stand out, but the slow pace of each team needs to be respected. Forty-one is a big key number in totals betting. An Over 40.5 would make for some partial-unit interest. But PASS on the current offering.
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