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The Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers meet in Game 1 of the 2023 World Series Friday in Arlington. First pitch at Globe Life Field is at 8:03 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Diamondbacks vs. Rangers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Diamondbacks won 3-1
Arizona went 84-78 in the regular season, finishing 2nd in the NL West and making the postseason as a wild card. The Diamondbacks have advanced with wins over the Milwaukee Brewers, Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies. They are 6-2 in 8 road games in the playoffs.
The Rangers went 90-72 in the regular season, finishing 2nd in the AL West and also qualifying for the postseason as a wild card. Texas has advanced with wins over the Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles and Houston Astros. The AL champs have played just 4 playoff games at home, where they are 1-3.
Diamondbacks at Rangers projected starters
RHP Zac Gallen vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi
Gallen made 34 starts in the regular season, going 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 210 innings.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 2 BB, 1 K in Saturday’s 6-1 loss vs. Phillies
- 2023 road stats (regular season): 5-6, 4.42 ERA in 108 IP across 18 starts
- Career vs. Rangers: 3.57 ERA in 17 2/3 IP
- Postseason: 5.24 ERA in 22 1/3 IP (all this October)
- Has yielded 5 HR and 9 R over 11 IP in his last 2 starts
Eovaldi made 25 starts in the regular season, going 12-5 with a 3.63 ERA. He had a 1.14 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 over 144 innings.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H (2 HR), 1 BB, 9 K in 9-2 win vs. Astros Sunday
- 2023 home stats (regular season): 6-3, 3.70 ERA in 65 2/3 IP across 12 starts
- Career vs. Diamondbacks: 2.78 ERA in 32 1/3 IP (2011-16)
- Postseason: 2.87 ERA in 69 IP (2018-23); has pitched at least 6 innings in each of 4 starts this October
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Diamondbacks at Rangers odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated Thursday at 6:42 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Diamondbacks +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Rangers -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Diamondbacks +1.5 (-145) | Rangers -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Diamondbacks at Rangers picks and predictions
Prediction
Rangers 5, Diamondbacks 4
Moneyline
Arizona excels with speed; the D-backs ranked 2nd in the MLB regular season with 166 stolen bases. But Texas is a very good defensive team (as is Arizona) and does a credible job against the run.
In the regular season, Arizona averaged 4.60 runs per game while allowing 4.70, so they have figured for a while now as being too far out over their skis. The Rangers averaged 5.44 RPG while yielding 4.42; so they should have probably won 95-plus games.
In the postseason, Texas has averaged 5.92 RPG against 3.75. The Rangers just figure as a more solid run-scoring proposition. And in this game, Texas sees a right-handed starter. Against righties, the Rangers clocked a .788 OPS in the regular season (4th MLB); in the postseason they have banged out an .825 OPS against right-handers.
And the right-hander the Rangers will see in Game 1 may be up against some fatigue issues. Gallen threw 121 /13 innings in 2021 and then upped that to 184 in 2022. His combined regular and postseason innings heading into this game: 232 1/3 IP.
Eovaldi is more of a workhorse and his playoff record is excellent. In 4 postseason games this October, he has yielded 2 runs or less 3 times (allowed 3 runs the other game).
BACK THE RANGERS (-165).
Run line/Against the spread
Rested bullpens play against a Rangers RL play a bit. And this price leaves a little to be desired. PASS.
Over/Under
Arizona hurlers this October have a robust (and maybe suspect) 80.5% left-on-base rate. Mix in 2 bullpens and much of this series figures to have some Over lean. But the playoff usage patterns — the off days, the best pitching being utilized — work against that lean.
PASS in this game. Look to maybe have some partial-unit Over plays as the series develops..
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