Due to Wisconsin’s rivalry contest against Minnesota being canceled due to COVID-19 cases in the Minnesota program, the Badgers are now unable to fulfill the six-game requirement to qualify for the Big Ten Championship.
Even if there was no game requirement to qualify for the conference championship, making it anyway would be a longshot with Northwestern sitting at 5-1 and holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Badgers.
Related: An update on our bold predictions for the Badgers’ 2020 football season
Despite the state of the season, there remains a path for the Badgers to defy all odds and make it to the College Football Playoff. Specifically, ESPN’s updated FPI gives the team a 3.7 percent chance of making the playoff. A lot has to go perfectly, but there is a path.
Stay with me here.
Due to a COVID-19 outbreak within their program, Ohio State‘s contest against Illinois last weekend was canceled, making it the second game the Buckeyes have missed this season. If Ryan Day’s team is unable to play either of their next two games the team would fall into the Badgers’ situation and will no longer be eligible for the Big Ten Championship.
Related: One of the Badgers’ starting cornerbacks has declared for the 2021 NFL Draft
The Buckeyes then would likely finish second in the Big Ten East (technically) and face Wisconsin during the Big Ten’s conference-wide December 19 postseason week, that if the Badgers win each of their two remaining games.
So even though it won’t be in the Big Ten Championship, Wisconsin would get a shot at redemption from last season’s losses and have a chance at a resume-defining victory.
Still working hypothetically: If Wisconsin is able to win that game after finishing the regular season 2-0, they would sit with a 5-1 record with a win against a top-5 team in Ohio State, a win against a top-10 team in Indiana and their only loss coming to a top-15 Northwestern team. 5-1 wasn’t the desired record for the team entering this year, but it would be an impressive resume given the circumstances.
So, how would that resume get them into the playoff?
The current playoff rankings have Alabama at No. 1, Notre Dame at No. 2, Clemson at No. 3, Ohio State at No. 4, Texas A&M at No. 5 and Florida at No. 6.
If Alabama and Notre Dame run the table they will both be undefeated and get in at No. 1 and No. 2 respectively. That would also give both Clemson and Florida two losses since they are likely to face off against the aforementioned teams in their conference’s title games.
So they would be out of the equation, leaving Texas A&M, Cincinnati and Ohio State as roadblocks for a Badger playoff appearance.
Note: Oklahoma is currently ranked ahead of the Badgers in the playoff rankings and controls its own destiny to reach the Big 12 title game. However, the Sooners have two losses and a 5-1 Wisconsin team with wins against Ohio State and Indiana may jump Oklahoma in the rankings down the road.
Again, this scenario is a longshot to come true, but that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be outlined and thought about.
Here is a list of everything that would need to happen in order for Texas A&M, Cincinnati and Ohio State to fall behind the potential 5-1 Badgers with Alabama and Notre Dame also winning out:
- Texas A&M loses to either Auburn or Tennessee, giving them two losses and taking them out of the picture
- Cincinnati loses to Tulsa this weekend and finishes as a 1-loss team without any Top 25 wins
- The committee sees Wisconsin’s head-to-head win against Ohio State as enough to put them as the best 1-loss team
- The Pac 12 champion finishes with two losses
- Northwestern loses to Indiana in the Big Ten Championship game or to Minnesota or Illinois to close out the regular season, therefore giving them two losses
If all of this comes true, this would be the final-season rankings
- Undefeated Alabama (SEC champion)
- Undefeated Notre Dame (ACC champion)
- A debate between the following resumes for the final two spots:
- 5-1 Wisconsin with wins against Ohio State and Indiana and only loss coming to Northwestern
- 5-1 Ohio State who lost to Wisconsin during Big Ten’s championship weekend
- 8-2 Oklahoma (Big 12 champion)
- 9-2 Florida (with their only losses coming against Texas A&M and Alabama)
- 7-1 Cincinnati (with no Top 25 wins)
- 7-2 Indiana (Big Ten Champion, but with losses to Wisconsin and Ohio State)
- The Pac 12 Champion (it’s too early to tell how many losses they’ll have)
- Several other 2-loss teams that did not win their conference championships
The committee could still see those resumes and chose conference champion Oklahoma, 9-2 Florida or the winner of the Pac 12. But if the Badgers get to face Ohio State due to the Buckeyes not qualifying for the conference championship, the door would be open for a playoff birth for the Wisconsin Badgers.
This is purely speculation and clearly has a low chance of coming true, but after the Northwestern loss and Minnesota cancelation, it looked like the playoff was impossible for Paul Chryst’s team. That now is not completely the case.