The secondary is primary for Wisconsin if it wants to beat Minnesota

A look at the Wisconsin Badgers’ secondary heading into the final stretch of the regular season.

There is a difference between playing poorly and playing “not well enough.” This reality is a good framework to use when assessing the Wisconsin Badgers’ secondary the past few weeks.

Solid and competent through two and a half or three quarters, the Wisconsin secondary has let down its guard in the fourth quarters of recent games against Illinois in October and then this past Saturday against Iowa. The similarities between the two games are very obvious, and they inform how the Badgers need to improve before the clash against the Minnesota Golden Gophers later this month. Beating Minnesota will enable this season to be remembered with a sense of satisfaction. If the Badgers are to build themselves to a point where they can withstand all of P.J. Fleck’s arrows and spears, the secondary — which hasn’t been bad — needs to be a lot better.

If a team or position unit does its job for two and a half or three quarters, it doesn’t deserve extremely low grades, but if that unit has enough lapses in the final 15 to 20 minutes of a game, no one will care how good the first two and a half quarters were. Such was the reality for Wisconsin after the Illinois game. That scenario very nearly unfolded again versus Iowa, but Chris Orr’s tackle on the 2-point conversion spared the Badgers an overtime period and a possible crisis.

Wisconsin led Illinois 20-7 deep into the third quarter. Illinois scored 17 points in the final 16 minutes to win. Wisconsin led Iowa 21-6 after three quarters. Iowa scored 16 points in the final 15 minutes to very nearly forge a tie. The Badgers’ secondary is like LeBron James in his disastrous 2011 NBA Finals series against the Dallas Mavericks: He wasn’t worth a dollar because he always came a quarter short.

LeBron couldn’t solve the fourth quarter in that series, as a member of the Miami Heat. The Mavs raised their game, and LeBron froze instead of becoming sharper in the cauldron of pressure. Something akin to that has happened with the Wisconsin secondary against Illinois and now Iowa. The Badgers gave hardly anything away and put an opposing offense on lockdown for nearly 45 minutes, and then lost the plot in the final 15.

Iowa’s Tyrone Tracy got free on an intermediate/deep-intermediate pass and outraced the Wisconsin defense the rest of the way for a 75-yard touchdown which changed the tone and trajectory of Saturday’s fourth quarter in Camp Randall Stadium. Illinois produced pass plays of 48 and 29 yards against Wisconsin to fuel its comeback. The Illini also got a 43-yard touchdown run in their late rally.

The big pass plays which have struck Wisconsin’s secondary have not been long bombs, either. These are not cases of quarterbacks throwing 50-yard heaves and the receivers outleap Badger cornerbacks. These are intermediate or deep-intermediate throws which involve a long run after the catch is made. Angles, reactions, positioning, and responsibility all enter into these shortcomings. They keep recurring, and they have to be nipped in the bud.

Wisconsin has a 75-cent defense right now. Finding that fourth and final quarter of quality is primary for the Badgers and their secondary.

Jack Coan needs to start hitting his spots

An assessment of Wisconsin Badgers quarterback Jack Coan after Saturday’s win over the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Jack Coan wasn’t bad for the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday against the Iowa Hawkeyes. For the most part, the football went where it needed to go. Coan made enough of the throws he had to make to assist the running game and Jonathan Taylor. Wisconsin needed every one of the 24 points it scored to fend off Iowa and move to 7-2 on the season, keeping alive hopes for a New Year’s Six bowl bid.

Coan was solid. He did what he had to do. That certainly rates as progress after an Ohio State game which quickly went sideways and never got back on track. If Coan can make steady progress in and through the month of November, Wisconsin can beat Minnesota on Nov. 30, the game which looms as the defining moment of this season for the Badgers.

When considering Wisconsin’s checklist against Minnesota — a team which currently stands above the Badgers in the Big Ten pecking order due to their win over Penn State — one thing which has to happen is that Coan has to become a far more accurate quarterback. Explaining this point requires a look back at the Iowa game.

If you go through this contest, you will note that even when Wisconsin hit an intermediate or deep pass, the receiver gained enough separation from an Iowa defender that Coan didn’t have to be letter-perfect with his throw. Whether we are talking about zip, touch, angle, or placement, Coan was not at the height of his powers. He did get the ball there, but that was more a reflection of his receivers’ ability to separate from defenders.

Against Minnesota’s team speed (on a general level) and its secondary (on a more particular level), Coan will likely not have the same large windows to throw to. Margins are likely to be smaller. The Golden Gophers’ closing speed was a problem for Penn State and quarterback Sean Clifford, who was unable to gun the ball into coverage. His throws were often lobbed toward his receivers, and Minnesota was able to pick off multiple passes as a result.

Coan has to look at film of Clifford versus Minnesota (not this week, but certainly during game week in late November) and understand just how important it is that he not float passes into traffic. That is one part of the equation Coan needs to figure out in the coming weeks.

The other part of the puzzle for Coan — if Wisconsin wants to have the best possible chance of beating Minnesota — is that he has to be more precise with his throws. Think of Josh Hader this past season. His regression from 2018 cost the Milwaukee Brewers a division title and the National League Wild Card Game against the eventual World Series champion Washington Nationals. Hader simply didn’t hit his spots often enough. So it was for Coan against Iowa, even though he still made enough important completions to deliver the win.

Go back to the Iowa game and notice all the times Coan completed a short or intermediate pass into the flat or outside the numbers. On several of those occasions, a receiver had to reach up or to the side to gather the ball. This process of extending for the ball — instead of having the ball thrown to the place where the receiver could easily catch the ball in stride — slowed down the receiver’s momentum. A receiver could not make a catch and then quickly turn upfield to either avoid the Iowa defender entirely, or at least make an upward cut to gain five or six more yards after the catch.

Against Minnesota, Jack Coan will need to hit receivers in stride, so that the plays which gained seven yards against Iowa will gain 13 against the Gophers, and plays which gained 20 yards can become 30-yarders. The 30-yarders can turn into 60-yard home runs.

Jack Coan’s imperfect placement wasn’t punished by Iowa. An effective running game and a strong offensive line enabled Wisconsin’s passing game to be more effective, since Iowa was so focused on stopping Jonathan Taylor. Against Minnesota, though, Jack Coan will need to be more precise. It would hit the spot if the Badgers can make the Gophers miserable. Hitting the spot will happen, however, only if Jack Coan hits the spot himself.