Boxing Junkie staffers are trying to have some fun while the sport is on hiatus because of the coronavirus pandemic.
One of the questions fans love to ask even amid a busy schedule is, “Who would win if …?” With that in mind, we decided to create our own “Who Wins?” feature, in which we pit a single fighter against each of five potential opponents and indicate who we believe would win the fights.
We started Sunday with our No. 1 boxer pound-for-pound, Vasiliy Lomachenko, who faced Teofimo Lopez, Devin Haney, Gervonta Davis, Miguel Berchelt and Ryan Garcia in our mthyical fights. Yesterday No. 2-rated Terence Crawford was pitted against Errol Spence, Manny Pacquiao, Shawn Porter, Keith Thurman and Danny Garcia.
Today? It’s No. 3 Canelo Alvarez’s turn.
The Mexican star seems to have made a decision to fight at 168 pounds. Thus, we’re pairing him with four super middleweights and arch rival Gennadiy Golovkin, who has fought above 160 pounds.
As in the case of Lomachenko and Crawford, our staffers – Michael Rosenthal, Norm Frauenheim and Sean Nam – give their picks in each of Alvarez’s five fights. We then tally Alvarez’s record in those fights and present our standings.
We want to acknowledge that the choice of possible opponents is subjective. We’re looking for the best possible but also realistic foes for our featured boxers. One caveat: We won’t consider promotional and managerial rivalries that often stand in the way of the best matchups. And we’re operating under the assumption that none of our featured boxers will fight with ring rust as result of their forced coronavirus-related layoff.
The plan is to work our way down our pound-for-pound list each day. That means our featured fighter tomorrow will be No. 4 Naoya Inoue.
So here goes: Alvarez vs. his five potential opponents.
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ALVAREZ (53-1-2, 36 KOs) VS. GOLOVKIN (40-1-1, 35 KOs)
Rosenthal: Golovkin isn’t as far gone as some seem to believe. He looked so-so in his last fight, a harder-than-expected unanimous-decision victory over Sergiy Derevyanchenko that raised the question: Is the soon-to-be-38-year-old fading? The guess here is that he lacked inspiration, which he would have in abundance for third fight with Alvarez. Part III would look like Parts I and II – give and take from beginning to end – but Alvarez, who is peaking now, is better at this stage of the game. He wins a clear decision this time.
Frauenheim: The second encore will be more of what we saw in the first encore. Golovkin is a couple fights past his prime. His durability is not the same. Lack of body punching in the first two is a sign GGG won’t step inside. Canelo, unanimous decision.
Nam: The win and draw Alvarez has against Golovkin will forever have asterisks attached to them. But if these two ever fight again – there is talk that it could happen this fall – Alvarez will be the decided favorite and it has all to do with the fact that he’s in his prime and Golovkin is not. Since their last meeting, Alvarez has outclassed Daniel Jacobs and stopped light heavyweight Sergey Kovalev. Golovkin meanwhile went life and death against Sergiy Derevyanchenko in a fight he barely edged on the scorecards. Alvarez by convincing unanimous decision.
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ALVAREZ VS. SAUNDERS (29-0, 14 KOs)
Rosenthal: Saunders is no pushover. He’s a well-schooled, experienced boxer who has never tasted defeat as a professional. The southpaw, like Triple-G, gave a mediocre performance in his most-recent fight – an 11th-round KO of Marcelo Coceres – and it also might’ve had something to do with motivation. At his best, he’s skilled enough to make Alvarez work hard. And that work would pay off. Alvarez would touch Saunders more and more as the fight progresses and ultimately win by late stoppage.
Frauenheim: Remember Canelo-Erislandy Lara? Canelo won, but Lara made him look bad by staying away, always outside and always circling. Saunders will do the same. It’s his only chance. But Canelo is better at cutting off the ring than he was against Lara. Canelo, unanimous decision.
Nam: This is a stinker of a fight. Saunders, the prototypical southpaw cutie, will work behind a busy jab and try to hold whenever Alvarez gets close. It’ll be ugly, but eventually Alvarez’s precise counters to the body will slow Saunders down and gain the approval of the judges. Alvarez by unanimous decision.
ALVAREZ VS. SMITH (27-0, 19 KOs)
Rosenthal: Smith, too, is coming off sub-par showing — a controversial decision over John Ryder — in his last fight. At his best, Smith is similar to Saunders in terms of his boxing education but he’s taller (6-foot-3) and punches harder, which could make him a legitimate threat to Alvarez. The problem for him will be that he isn’t mobile, which doesn’t bode well in this fight. Alvarez figures to get inside Smith’s long jab, do more and more damage as the fight progresses and win a clear decision.
Frauenheim: Tale of the tape adds up to tactical problems for Canelo. At 6-3, Smith is seven inches taller than Canelo, listed at 5-8. Smith has an a 7½-advantage in reach. Smith is bigger than Sergey Kovalev, who is listed at 6-0. No matter, Canelo stopped Kovalev. He does the same to Smith, scoring a late-round TKO.
Nam: For a time, Smith was touted as perhaps the most talented super middleweight in the world, though that was a flimsy claim given his most important win was against a slightly over-the-hill George Groves. Then in his last bout, Smith looked dreadful against middling British contender John Ryder, who was arguably robbed on the scorecards. Was it just a bad day at the office? Or indicative of some more fundamental deficiencies? Hard to say. What’s clear, though, is that Smith’s long torso makes for easy target practice for Alvarez. Smith doesn’t make it past the 11th round.
ALVAREZ VS. BENAVIDEZ (22-0, 19 KOs)
Rosenthal: Benavidez is bigger and stronger than Alvarez but he doesn’t have the skill set or experience to handle the man he has described as his dream opponent. The 23-year-old titleholder from Phoenix would be game, of course, but Alvarez would pick him apart, wear him down and eventually stop him.
Frauenheim: A good fight a couple of years from now. The maturing Benavidez has a big upper body. It won’t withstand Canelo’s body punches now. But it might in a few years. Benavidez loves to fight. At 23 years-old, that would get him in trouble. At 25, it’s a different story. Canelo, late-round TKO.
Nam: The most challenging fight for Alvarez. Benavidez brings size, power, and speed, and plenty of intangibles. If Benavidez can take a punch – he’s been knocked down by Ronald Gavril – he may have a shot at upsetting the biggest North American star in the sport. That’s a best-case scenario, though. What’s more likely is that Alvarez’s slippery defense and offensive precision will deliver him yet another win. Alvarez by unanimous decision.
ALVAREZ VS. PLANT (20-0, 12 KOs)
Rosenthal: The slick Plant comes closest among this bunch to matching Alvarez’s speed and athleticism, which could make him difficult for Alvarez to figure out. The problem for Plant could be that he doesn’t have the punching power to keep Alvarez honest, meaning he probably would have to outbox him to win. That’s hard to imagine for a fighter who is still developing. Alvarez by late knockout.
Frauenheim: Might be Canelo’s toughest fight. Plant is hard to hit. He’s known for edgy, in-your-face trash talking. But that’s for new conferences. At opening bell, Plant moves well, in and out, throwing feints and setting traps. But can he elude Canelo’s body-punches? Not for 12 rounds. Canelo wins narrow decision.
Nam: Plant is something of an enigma even after beating Jose Uzcategui to become a super middleweight titleholder. Uzcategui was a middling and overrated fighter, who actually gave Plant fits late in the fight. Since then he has gone up against back-to-back no-hopers in Mike Lee and Vincent Feigenbutz. Plant has some of the smoothest skills in the game, but that cute stuff will only go so far against Alvarez, who will land the more telling punches en route to a unanimous decision win.
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THE FINAL TALLY
Canelo Alvarez: 15-0 (6 KOs)
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THE STANDINGS
Canelo Alvarez: 15-0 (6 KOs)
Vassiliy Lomachenko: 14-0-1 (4 KOs)
Terence Crawford: 14-1 (3 KOs)
Read more:
Who wins? Vassiliy Lomachenko vs. five potential opponents
Who wins? Terence Crawford vs. five potential opponents
