The NFC South Division hosts the defending Super Bowl champion with several other hopefuls looking to make a move. Below, we analyze the odds to win the NFC South and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
The NFC South is composed of the Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The defending-champ Buccaneers are the heavy favorites to repeat as NFC South champs, and the books aren’t expecting QB Tom Brady and his teammates to have much difficulty in accomplishing the feat. They didn’t lose much from the championship roster, while other teams were in more transition.
The Falcons are a little worse after trading All-Pro WR Julio Jones to the Tennessee Titans, but the cupboard is certainly not bare with the likes of WR Calvin Ridley and rookie TE Kyle Pitts in tow.
The Saints said goodbye to long-time superstar QB Drew Brees – so it’s a transition season in the Big Easy. However, they still have RB Alvin Kamara, and that’s a tremendous option for whomever emerges as the starting quarterback between Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill.
Last, but not least, the Panthers added former No. 3 overall pick QB Sam Darnold. The 24-year-old still has plenty left in the tank and a solid cadre of receivers in Robby Anderson and DJ Moore – as well as RB Christian McCaffrey.
Odds to win NFC South
Odds via Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday, Aug. 25 at 7:45 a.m. ET.
- Buccaneers: -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
- Saints: +380 (bet $100 to win $380)
- Falcons: +900 (bet $100 to win $900)
- Panthers: +1200 (bet $100 to win $1,200)
The Buccaneers are the only team without plus-money odds.
The Falcons, Panthers and Saints each return more money than your original bet should they win a division crown. The Panthers have the highest long-shot odds in the NFC South with +1200 odds representing an implied win probability of 7.69%.
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NFC South picks and predictions
The BUCCANEERS (-280) are the heavy favorites, and that’s all well and good if you like to play it ultra safe. Tampa Bay will cost you nearly three times your potential return, and that’s an awful lot of money to tie up into a futures bet for not that much return. Still, it’s hard to envision many scenarios where the Bucs don’t repeat as champs, unless injuries decimate the roster.
I just don’t really trust the Saints (+380) to wrap up any notable sum of money. Winston has had his chance in Tampa to start, and he just doesn’t read defenses well. And if head coach Sean Payton were to go the other way, and use Hill under center, he is more of a gadget player, and not someone I would feel comfortable seeing run the offense on a week-to-week basis.
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The FALCONS (+900) still have some nice weapons on offense, they added former Panthers RB Mike Davis to be the every-down guy, and WRs Russell Gage and Olamide Zaccheaus proved they could be reliable secondary and tertiary options when healthy. I wouldn’t risk a huge sum of bread on Atlanta, but they’re worth a small-unit bet for a chance to multiply your wager by nine.
I also wouldn’t risk a boatload on the PANTHERS (+1200), but at the same time, if Darnold can live up to expectations in a new place, Carolina is a steal at this price. Darnold already has a rapport with Anderson from their days in New York, and Moore is a second legit downfield option. Toss in a healthy CMC, and this Carolina offense could roll. Defense is the biggest concern here.
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