Statistics in 2020 will look vastly different than they do in a typical year, all because the 2020 MLB season has been shortened to only 60 games. Below, we look at the BetMGM odds and make our MLB futures picks and best bets to lead MLB in home runs in 2020.
We won’t have anyone hitting 50 home runs or driving in 100 runs this season, but we could have someone hit .400, or close to it. In the home run department, it’ll be a mad dash to the power crown.
2020 MLB home runs leader best bets: Favorites
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, July 17 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Texas Rangers OF Joey Gallo (+900)
Gallo is tied with Chicago White Sox rookie OF Luis Robert to lead the majors in home runs, but Robert comes with much more uncertainty than the Rangers slugger. Gallo was an All-Star in 2019 after a strong first half of the season. He finished with 22 home runs and a career-high .253 batting average in 70 games.
If he can hit 20-something home runs again in a 60-game season, he’ll be right there among the leaders. He’ll benefit from the universal designated hitter rule, too, allowing him to play more often against National League teams.
New York Mets 1B Pete Alonso (+1000)
Alonso is my pick to lead the majors in home runs, which would mark the second season in a row he’d do so. He plays in a hitter-friendly park and showed incredible durability last season by playing 161 games. He’s a budding star in baseball and it’s hard to imagine him regressing much at all in Year 2. He does need to cut down on the strikeouts, though, after going down 183 times as a rookie.
2020 MLB home runs leader best bets: Contenders
New York Yankees OF Giancarlo Stanton (+1400)
How quickly we forget Stanton’s raw power after two somewhat disappointing seasons with the Yankees. He’s led the league in home runs twice (2014 and 2017) with the Miami Marlins, slugging 59 long balls three years ago. If healthy, he should be pumping homers over the short porches at Yankee Stadium often and given his streakiness, he could go on a tear and win the home run crown with one hot stretch this season.
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Colorado Rockies 3B Nolan Arenado (+2500)
The Rockies wound up keeping Arenado in Colorado after trade rumors swirled this offseason, which benefits the third baseman. He’s finished in the top eight of MVP voting in each of the last five years and led the league in homers three times, playing at least 155 games in each of those seasons. His combination of durability, power and playing at Coors Field makes him a no-brainer at +2500.
Oakland Athletics 1B Matt Olson (+2500)
Olson hit 24 home runs in 59 games as a rookie in 2017 and has improved his totals in that category in each of the two seasons since. He clubbed 36 home runs in only 127 games last season, while still hitting .267. If he can continue to improve as a hitter like he has in the last couple of years, he’ll be right there at the top of the league in home runs.
2020 MLB home runs leader best bets: Long shots
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Chicago White Sox OF Eloy Jimenez (+6600)
My lone long-shot pick is Jimenez, an exciting young player who lived up to the hype as a rookie in 2019. He hit 31 home runs and batted .267 in 122 games last season, finishing fourth in American League Rookie of the Year voting. At +6600, he comes with incredible upside, still with a good chance to finish at the top of the majors in home runs. He’ll need to hit long balls at a much higher rate than he did last season, but he has the potential to do it.
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