Tag: who do i start fantasy football

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 8

Tracking my predictions: 4-2-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Last week, Arizona Cardinals wideout Larry Fitzgerald was the pick. He finished with 14.2 points of the projected 16.9, good for 84 percent of the forecast, narrowly sliding into the window for a prediction win — and doing it all without the touchdown I had expected. He posted a season-best eight catches on as many targets and racked up 62 yards, which also marked a season-high figure. It wasn’t sexy, but PPR gamers cashed out a quality return on a minimal flex investment.

Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa vs. Los Angeles Rams

This one either will be a genius call or completely blow up in my face. I’ll preface it all with the warning that it could go sideways at breakneck speed, so realize the risk and decide if it’s best for your state of affairs.

What I like about Tua’s situation: Head coach Brian Flores is a measured man by any objective approach. His demeanor and the way he carries himself screams silent confidence. So when Ryan Fitzpatrick was benched in the midst of what was a hot streak and quality play by most standards, instead of being shocked at the decision to start Tagovailoa, I quickly pivoted my focus. Flores sees Tua every day and understands his maturation better than anyone on the outside of the organization. He understands how far along the rookie is with digesting the playbook, and Flo knows whether his young quarterback has command of the system as a whole.

This is overarching — Tua must have the respect of this teammates and trust from the rest of the coaching staff in order for his head coach to feel comfortable in this choice. I’ll give Flores the benefit of the doubt in recognizing all of that and making a decision that is best for his team.

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Positives from a fantasy perspective: Tagovailoa played quite well for one of the best programs college football has ever known and did so vs. the top competition in the country. He’s a bright guy and, perhaps better yet, is in an offense from Chan Gailey — one of the top mentors and play-callers adept at molding his offense around the players’ talents at his disposal.

There won’t be a serious change to the system from Fitz to Tua. The 37-year-old quarterback is still spry enough that some of the same mobility plays we’ll see from Tagovailoa have been employed. There’s another plus for the rookie … he’s quite capable of buying time and also making plays down the field with his legs. In most fantasy scoring systems, two rushing TDs from my quarterback are equal to three passing touchdowns. The point being, it doesn’t have to be dazzling to be effective. Miami’s backfield is hardly scary, and Tua could see several designed running calls in the red zone.

Other factors of consequence: We’re seeing DeVante Parker continue where he left off after his 2019 breakout season, and now WR Preston Williams is finally starting to live up to the preseason hype. He has scored in consecutive games and presents a tremendous target in the red zone. Additionally, inexperienced quarterbacks tend to rely on tight ends as a safety outlet, and there aren’t too many better among the younger lot at this position than the still-growing Mike Gesicki. He’s a vertical weapon like few others at the position, and he can take a dump-off pass 20 yards in a hurry.

The scarier side of things: Los Angeles has been pretty tough vs. quarterbacks and improved overall on defense under Brandon Staley. It boasts the best defensive player in the league in Aaron Donald, and cornerback Jalen Ramsey rates near the top of his position. Several young defenders are emerging alongside these anchors.

A closer look reveals much of LA’s statistical success vs. quarterbacks has been driven by facing several inferior quarterbacks and/or by reaping the benefits of situational advantages. Examples: Facing Carson Wentz with a battered offensive line and few weapons, Daniel Jones, Kyle Allen/Alex Smith, and Nick Foles. We’ve seen adequate and even stellar performances from Dak Prescott (20.3 fantasy points), Josh Allen (38.4), and Jimmy Garoppolo (26.2) in 2020. Three different quarterbacks have scored on the ground vs. this defense, which is encouraging, and just two weeks ago, Jimmy G. chucked three touchdown passes.

Finally, an understated advantage is there’s little game film of Tua at the pro level. Miami didn’t make a rash decision, even if it felt that way. They utilized a bye week nearly halfway into the season to make the change at a time in which the team was winning and building confidence. In many ways, it’s a smoother transition than if Fitzpatrick were to have been injured and Tua became the starter in that manner.

My projection: 236 passing yards, 52 rushing yards, 1 passing TD, 1 INT, 1 rushing TD (26 fantasy points)

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 7

Tracking my predictions: 3-2-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

I continue my trend of being right every other week and exceeding the mark when correct, while being glaringly wrong when I miss. Detroit Lions running back D’Andre Swift was the choice last week, which played out slightly different than imagined. I had projected a more balanced approach, but he took over on the ground, which was discussed as a possibility.

Arizona Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald vs. Seattle Seahawks

The future Hall of Famer is off to the worst start of his career and on pace for what will be by far a personal worst in production. Entering Week 7, Fitz is on a trajectory for 94.4 PPR points, averaging 5.9 per game. His previous career-low average was 10.9 in 2012, and he has not even found the end zone in six games.

Fitzgerald experiencing a drop-off in targets shouldn’t have surprised anyone after the Cards traded for DeAndre Hopkins. Wide receiver Christian Kirk is on the upswing, and Arizona drafted Andy Isabella in Round 2 a year ago. At 37 heading into the season, Fitz clearly was on the downside of his illustrious career. However, if anyone expected it to be this bad … I call BS. He hasn’t seen fewer than 109 targets in a full year, which came last season, but he’s on pace for only 76. For perspective, Allen Robinson leads the NFL right now with 66 in six games. The Cardinals’ Air Raid offense was supposed to light up scoreboards week in and week out, and while Arizona hasn’t struggled to put up points most weeks, Kyler Murray has thrown it only 205 times, which is just 10th in the league. Teddy Bridgewater has more attempts for cryin’ out loud.

All of that hoopla aside, no one should care what Fitz has done to date but instead be focused on what he can do against the worst defense of his position. Much like with Swift’s inclusion last week, this isn’t some out-there notion that a player will perform well vs. a poor defense. It is, though, all about expectations, and anyone who gambles or golfs knows managing expectations drives every savvy decision.

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In five contests, Seattle has given up the most PPR points per game in 2020 by a margin of 12.1 more than the next closest team, but how have receivers racked up the points should be examined. Minnesota is the second-place team, having allowed five more touchdowns than Seattle’s seven. I’m no math wizard, but that immediately tells me the ‘Hawks must be conceding a boatload of catches and/or yardage.

Yes, to both, is the correct answer.

Receivers have averaged an insane 21.6 catches for a crazier 294.4 yards vs. Seattle in only five outings. Both are easily tops in the league, and the next closest figures are 16.4 catches (Tennessee) and 217.5 yards (Atlanta). Ridiculous. But the rate of one touchdown every 15.4 receptions is tied for the 11th-lowest frequency. What that suggests is a receiver doesn’t have to find the end zone to produce relevant fantasy results, especially in PPR.

Is that result of insane volume against Seattle? Not really. Three other teams have given up seven touchdowns in five games, and only one of them has permitted more than 12.8 catches a game. That says Fitz doesn’t need to be reliant on volume to matter, because he won’t be targeted enough for that to be the outcome anyway.

I loathe relying on past statistics vs. a team, because so much tends to change year over year — heck, week after week — that it’s mostly irrelevant. Occasionally patterns develop, and some players tend to do well vs. opponents the see frequently, such as between these divisional rivals. Fitzgerald has at least four catches in his last three games vs. Seattle, and he found the end zone in two of those contests. Interpret that as you will.

There are several other things worth touching on, like Seattle having extra time to focus on how to stop Hopkins, or Arizona likely struggling to run the ball effectively after Kenyan Drake has shown life in the last two weeks, but it boils down to Arizona will have to throw the ball to keep up with Russell Wilson, and three of the four times Murray has put it up more than 35 times this year have resulted in the top three target counts for Fitz.

My projection: 7 targets, 5 receptions, 59 yards, 1 TD (16.9 PPR points)

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 6

Tracking my predictions: 2-2-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Welp, so far my predictions have been either really good or downright awful. The two that were right were so much better than what I had predicted, those guys likely won games for owners. On the other hand, the pair that were wrong were laughably bad. This is why they’re gambles, though. Some will miss their mark by a wide margin, and the best one can do is learn from it and move forward. So, that’s what we’ll do heading into Week 6…

Detroit Lions  RB D’Andre Swift at Jacksonville Jaguars

This week, I really wanted to include Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabriel Davis as my pick, but his value completely depends on the health of John Brown (calf), and this being a Monday night game made me shy away. There’s too much volatility for recommending a player whose path to playing time is determined well after gamers are required to set their lineups. In the event Brown sits again, get Davis into lineups … I won’t track him as part of my overall recommendations.

Swift ranks as an RB2 consideration for me this week, because the Jaguars have an all-around shaky defense of his position. The Lions come back from their bye week, and one has to presume they spent extra time going over the game plan, but it’s the Lions, so, yeah, let’s not bank on that being the case.

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What one should expect is more Swift. He has a month under his belt as an NFL rookie without a formal offseason, and we’ve seen enough good mixed in with the bad to give him some credit. The Lions more or less have moved on from Kerryon Johnson at this point, and the only way Adrian Peterson is a threat is if the ball is inside of the 5-yard line. Swift also has value in the red zone, though, and his versatility as a receiving option is crucial.

The Jaguars have permitted running backs an average of 6.2 receptions (10th most) for 43.8 yards (14th) in five weeks. Two of those catches have scored, which translates to being the eighth-highest rate. While Swift is less likely to see work around the stripe as a runner, it’s not out of the question, especially if the offense is ready to begin a transition to him as the featured weapon in the backfield. I cannot say with confidence that will happen, but I’ve been encouraged by his ability to produce with limited work, which suggests Swift will be fine even if this isn’t the week he sees significantly more touches.

Additionally, it’s the first matchup he has faced that has been favorable. Swift has posted at least 11.3 PPR points in three of his four games in spite of having faced tough opponents, so the gamble here really is how much more will he produce. Jacksonville has yielded 104.2 rushing yards a game (11th) and four rushing TDs in five outings. Just two weeks ago, Joe Mixon enjoyed a breakout game based on versatility, and we saw the same with Nyheim Hines in Week 1.

My projection: 9 attempts, 48 yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 44 yards, 1 TD (21.2 PPR points)

Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start or bench The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.

The best fantasy football gamble for Week 5

Tracking my predictions: 2-1-1
Win: Player produces ≥ 80% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >80% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected or leaves with an injury

Last week, Green Bay Packers tight end Robert Tonyan was the pick and proved to be a fantasy football jackpot! My projection was a shade over 14 points, but he more than doubled it, scoring a cool three touchdowns on the night. I couldn’t wait to play Tonyan, and he was in three of my lineups — all of which were wins, and he was the X-factor in two of those games.

Indianapolis Colts WR Zach Pascal at Cleveland Browns

While I am not quite as high on this week’s recommendation, Pascal and the Colts travel to Cleveland where to face a Browns defense that has given up serious points to the position. Pascal has seen at least four targets in each of the past three games, including eight looks last week. He has shown the ability to get downfield and even scored in Week 2 as a part-time player.

Indianapolis needs someone to step up in the passing game. Quarterback Philip Rivers and star receiver T.Y. Hilton have not been on the same page … they haven’t even been in the same library. Indianapolis may struggle to run the ball as effectively as the coaches would like to see in this one, and more passing is predicted. The Browns have scored at least 34 points in three straight games, and Indy could be without its best defender in stud linebacker Darius Leonard this week. While the Colts have been impressive on defense, the level of competition hasn’t been. Cleveland could force Indianapolis into a pass-heavy script.

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Wide receivers have done damage in multiple ways vs. the Browns this season, and it hasn’t been just the typical star players. In fact, quite the opposite. Of the eight touchdown receptions to receivers against this defense, Baltimore’s Willie Snead, Cincinnati Bengals WR Mike Thomas, and Washington wideout Dontrelle Inman account for half of them. Eight different receivers in four games have posted double-digit PPR points vs. the Browns.

Added attention paid to Hilton, regardless of his struggles, as well as the fear of rookie running back Jonathan Taylor, suggests Pascal could stand out vs. isolated coverage. He will benefit from play-action passing, as well, if the running game finds traction. In a week with byes, injuries, and a possible COVID-19 game interruption (BUF-TEN), there’s amplified reason to chance it with Pascal.

My projection: 5 catches, 74 yards, 1 TD (18.4 PPR points)