Tag: weekly

Expert Predictions: Are the Gators up to the Samford challenge?

A look at how the Gators Wire staff sees things going down in the Swamp against Samford this Saturday.

It has been a tough go in Gainesville this past month for the Florida football team, having dropped three-straight games — and four of its last five — including a disappointing effort against the South Carolina Gamecocks last week that dropped the team to under .500 for the first time in head coach Dan Mullen‘s tenure.

The program has not been unresponsive to its ills, parting ways with much-maligned defensive coordinator Todd Grantham and offensive line coach John Hevesy, both the focus of much frustration among the Gator Nation. The changes come too late to salvage this season but at least represent some level of accountability on the coaches for the product on the field.

This Saturday, the Gators host the FCS Samford Bulldogs in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. In most other years, this matchup would represent an opportunity for the team to score an easy win, but as we learned last weekend, there is no such thing for this Florida squad.

The Gators Wire staff provided its projections for this weekend’s game. Here is a look at how our experts think things will go down.

10 fascinating facts ahead of Florida football’s meeting with the Samford Bulldogs

Pat Dooley gives his breakdown of 10 things to know ahead of the Samford game.

Tickets are not hard to come by for Florida’s first game in the Swamp in over a month.

That’s what happens when you’re 4-5 and have already clinched a losing SEC record.

Florida will face Samford at noon on Saturday in front of what likely will be a restless crowd if anything goes wrong. With Florida’s performances over the last three games, Gator fans are looking at a game that was expected to be a sure win and are wondering if this team has any gas left in the tank.

Two coaches fired. Head coach answering tough questions. Recruiting slipping.

Florida could use a feel-good day. But with this team, nothing is guaranteed.

Let’s talk some Samford football (and quit calling it Stanford or Sanford):

How has Florida fared in FCS matchups over the last decade?

Aside from the infamous Georgia Southern loss, the Gators historically play very well in FCS matchups.

Florida was absolutely boat raced on Saturday by one of the weaker teams in the SEC as South Carolina beat the Gators 40-17 at Williams-Brice Stadium to earn its first win in the series since Dan Mullen became the head coach.

That game set the team back to 4-5, and while this team had its sites set on the College Football Playoff after coming up just two points short of then-No. 1 Alabama in September, a bowl game is now far from a guarantee, as UF has to win two of its final three games against Samford, Missouri and Florida State.

This week’s contest presents the best chance to earn one of those wins as the Bulldogs, members of the Football Championship Subdivision Southern Conference, sit at just 4-5 on the season. But they have had some impressive moments against ranked FCS teams, falling 46-45 to No. 18 VMI and dropping a 55-48 game to No. 15 East Tennessee State in overtime.

Much like the Group of Five, not all FCS teams are created equal, and the Bulldogs are not among the toughest teams in the lowest level of Division I football. But no games are a given, as Florida fans should know very well. With that in mind, here’s a rundown of how this team has fared in FCS contests over the last decade.

Florida plummets in CBS Sports College Football Rankings after fifth loss

Florida has no shot of being a top 25 team this year, but are the Gators even in the top 50% of college football teams?

An ugly loss to South Carolina on Saturday dropped Florida down 27 spots to No. 64 in the latest CBS Sports college football rankings.

Florida hasn’t been ranked in the Coaches Poll or AP Poll in over a month, and the Gators were nowhere to be seen on the season’s first College Football Playoff ranking. With Florida being unranked, CBS Sports’ rankings help give an idea of which direction the program is going in the bigger picture. Unsurprisingly, a 27-spot drop wins the award for the biggest move of the week in either direction.

The Gators are now the tenth highest-ranked team in the SEC, according to CBS Sports. Only South Carolina (No. 68), Missouri (No. 87) and Vanderbilt (No. 119) are below Florida. The rest of the conference is considered a good deal better than the Gators with LSU being 16 spots higher at No. 48 and Mississippi State at No. 40.

Kentucky fell 14 spots and behind Tennessee at No. 35 after losing at home to the Volunteers. Arkansas is one spot outside the top 25, and the rest of the SEC is ranked.

Florida St., the Gators’ final opponent of the season, is currently ranked at No. 85. The Seminoles face No. 42 Miami this weekend.

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Did you know Florida football has played Samford twice? Well, kinda.

Some interesting history ahead of the Samford game that Pat Dooley dug up.

Florida has never played Samford before Saturday’s game in the Swamp. Well, they did play against the school when it was named Howard College. So, we do have a little history to explore this week as we take a look back:

SEC Power Rankings: Gators reach new low after falling to South Carolina

Florida lands near the bottom of the pack after losing to South Carolina in embarrassing fashion.

A handful of upsets made Week 10 one of the most eventful in the Southeastern Conference so far this season.

Florida suffered the most shocking defeat of the weekend at the hands of South Carolina, triggering mid-season firings. Mississippi State lost to Arkansas just after getting ranked, and Kentucky dropped its third straight game after starting the year 6-0.

Texas A&M was technically ranked one spot behind Auburn in the AP Poll before dominating this weekend in a matchup between the two, but that’s not much of an upset. Georgia once again cruised to a victory, this time over Missouri, and Alabama struggled to a win over LSU.

The lone non-conference matchup this week was Ole Miss hosting Liberty. A lot of teams moved this week in our power rankings, so here’s a look at all 14 SEC teams going into Week 11.

Florida tumbles but still ranks surprisingly high in the SP+ rankings

Analytics systems continue to like the Gators even after Saturday night’s embarrassing loss.

Florida’s 40-17 loss to South Carolina raised a lot of questions about the state of the program. Losing to Alabama and Georgia? That was to be expected. While losses to Kentucky and LSU were less justifiable, both came in one-score fashion on the road.

But there’s no excuse for what happened Saturday night. Against one of the weaker teams in the entire Power Five, the Gators were outright dominated on Saturday night.

With that loss, the team falls to just 4-5 on the season, and a bowl game may be tough to reach. But somehow, the analytics still like this team. ESPN’s Football Power Index had the team in the top 10 prior to the loss, and it still ranks 20th.

In the SP+ rankings from ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the Gators still rank in the top 15 after the loss, sitting at No. 14 to be specific.

Florida’s offense still ranks in the top 10 at No. 9, and its defense, which has been oft-maligned and has struggled significantly at times this season, ranks 33rd, higher than you might expect. Interestingly, what’s dragging the Gators down the most are their special teams, which SP+ ranks as just the No. 115 unit in the nation.

If nothing else, this shows that Florida could (and probably should) have a much better record right now. The fact that it doesn’t is more a negative reflection on the current staff than anything else.

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Good, Bad and Ugly: What’s left to say about Florida football after Saturday’s loss?

While many had doubts about Florida, nobody saw Saturday night’s shellacking of the Gators coming.

The Gator Nation is reeling after a devastating road loss for the football team against the South Carolina Gamecocks on Saturday, putting the program’s postseason plans in peril as the end of the regular-season schedule nears. What was supposed to be a relatively easy win for Florida turned out to be an embarrassing rout at the hands of a team that barely beat Vanderbilt, getting blown out by a score of 40-17.

The flame under head coach Dan Mullen‘s hot seat grew exponentially after the lackluster showing by his team, which has become too common of a trend over the 2021 campaign. With the carnage now in the rearview mirror, the Gators Wire staff presents its post mortem of the carcass that remains after the brutal defeat.

Florida finally takes a dive in ESPN’s Football Power Index

Florida’s loss to South Carolina was finally enough to drop it out of the top 10.

ESPN’s Football Power Index has been inexplicably high on the Gators all season. Even as the team dropped games to Kentucky, LSU and Georgia, it remained in the FPI top 10.

But everything fell apart on Saturday night. The Gators had no answer for SEC bottom-feeder South Carolina, who absolutely dominated it en route to a 40-17 win at home. The loss leaves the program facing some hard questions about its future, and finally, Florida has dropped in the FPI from No. 8 to No. 20.

Still, this is significantly higher than the Gators probably deserve based on the way they’ve played. They rank above two 8-1 teams in Oregon and Michigan State, and UF, alongside Texas (which ranks one spot above it) are the only two teams with a losing record in the top 25.

ESPN still gives Florida a roughly 65% chance of winning out, but that percentage has dropped quite a bit after the showing on Saturday night, and the team should be significantly less confident in games at Missouri and vs. Florida State at home.

The Gators appear to be full-on spiraling, and this probably won’t be their last drop in the rankings.

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Here’s the SP+ prediction for Florida football vs. South Carolina

SP+ thinks the Gators will win comfortably despite not covering.

The Gators are back in action against South Carolina desperately looking to get back in the win column after a 34-7 loss to Georgia set it back to .500 on the season. Florida is just 2-7 in its last nine Power Five games, and luckily for UF, it draws a winnable matchup this week against the South Carolina Gamecocks.

But that game comes on the road, and it could prove to be a bit challenging for a UF team that doesn’t have much to play for at this point.

ESPN’s SP+ analytics system, which is actually fairly high on the Gators and has them ranked in the top 10, projects that they will win on Saturday by a two-score margin, but it doesn’t expect them to cover an 18-point spread against the Gamecocks.

Instead, it predicts a 35-20 win for UF, which Florida fans would likely take at this point. South Carolina can’t do much offensively, but its run game has found some success, and considering how little the Gators were able to adjust to the run against LSU, that could be a fruitful avenue.

The Gamecocks are actually solid defensively, and with it looking less and less likely that quarterback Anthony Richardson will suit up on Saturday after suffering a concussion, we could see some of the offensive struggles we saw before he took over against the Tigers.

UF will be heavily favored in its four remaining games, and an 8-4 finish is still very much in reach. But that starts with winning in Columbia at night on Saturday.

Here are the full SP+ predictions for the week.

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