Nearly six weeks and more than a third of the way through NFL 2020, the contenders are starting to separate themselves from the pretenders.
In our fantasy football realm, the same process is underway with the wheat starting to distinguish itself from the chaff. As usual, this season’s crop of rookies is well-represented in both bins, and that’s our focus in this week’s edition of TTT.
We starting by ranking the top eight fantasy rookies so far and judging their rest-of-season staying power at their current level of production on a 1-10 scale, going from least to most likely. Then we’re doing the same with our top five rookie fantasy disappointments, and rating their respective chances to improve upon their current level of production on the same 1-10 scale.
It’s all to help fantasy general managers make better lineup and roster decisions with the typically volatile first-year players as the stakes grow increasingly larger in the rapidly approaching second half of the fantasy season.
Arguably, the case can be made that a rookie or two (see Edwards-Helaire, Clyde) simultaneously belongs on both of our lists here, but to avoid any spoiler alerts, you’ll just have to read all the way through to find out if any do, in fact, achieve that dual distinction.
One quick note on our fantasy rookie ranks: More weight is given to the more valuable fantasy positions where scarcity helps elevate a running back over a similarly performing wide receiver, for instance. A rookie’s average draft position is factored in, as well, with later-round standouts given precedence over a similarly performing high draft pick.
And you’ll soon notice that no tight ends appear on either list, simply because there have been no fantasy rookies of note so far this season.
All that established, we dive right into our top eight 2020 fantasy rookies to date, with rankings and statistics through play Sunday in Week 6 …
Best fantasy rookies (so far)
8. QB Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Current position rank (total standard-scoring fantasy points): 16 (125.5 in 6 games)
Positional ADP: 19
Most impressive achievement: The No. 1 overall pick has delivered consistent production, putting up at least 20.1 fantasy points in five of his six starts and throwing for at least 300 yards in four of six outings.
Staying power: 7. There are worries about Cincy’s offensive line — only the Eagles’ Carson Wentz at 25 times has been sacked more than Burrow’s 24 takedowns — but he’s surrounded by a strong cast of weapons and also has displayed some underrated rushing ability with 87 yards and two touchdowns on the ground to date.
7) RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs
Current position rank (fantasy points): 19 (74.2 in 6 games)
Positional ADP: 7
Most impressive achievement: The expected workload has been there with CEH averaging 21.3 touches and 113.7 yards from scrimmage per game, but the lack of touchdowns has been a downer as he’s accounted for only one of K.C.’s five rushing scores.
Staying power: 4. At least Edwards-Helaire owners could cling to the fact that he’s garnered 79 percent of the running back touches over the team’s first six games. But that number almost certainly will go down, starting in Week 7, with the Chiefs signing veteran RB Le’Veon Bell, who figures to command a hefty share of targets and goal-line work. And if Bell is more like Steelers Bell than Jets Bell, CEH could find himself relegated to a No. 2 role.
6) RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Current position rank (fantasy points): 14 (70.9 in 6 games)
Positional ADP: 18
Most impressive achievement: The no-frills Taylor has had at least 14 touches and 62 total yards in each contest and has been efficient as a receiver, catching 16-of-17 targets for 162 yards.
Staying power: 9. It’s a bit concerning that Taylor has only seen 12 rushing attempts in each of the last two contests and has scored once since Week 3, but he’s the lead back on a run-heavy team that doesn’t need aging QB Philip Rivers dropping back too many times.
5) QB Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Current position rank (fantasy points): 22 (107.2 in 4 games)
Positional ADP: 31
Most impressive achievement: Since stepping in on short notice for the injured Tyrod Taylor in Week 2, Herbert has hit the ground throwing, compiling at least 22 fantasy points in each of his first four starts and totaling 10 TDs with only three interceptions. His average of 26.8 fantasy points per game ranks seventh at the position — impressive for a rookie and even more impressive in a season of record offensive numbers across the league.
Staying power: 8. Herbert is surrounded by a strong supporting cast — especially when RB Austin Ekeler returns — but he’s even produced while targeting unknowns such as WRs Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson and has the makings of a surprise QB1 finisher.
4) WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Current position rank (fantasy points): 4 (71.7 in 6 games)
Positional ADP: 48
Most impressive achievement: After a concerning slow start with only six total targets and 7.0 fantasy points combined in his first two games, Jefferson has been nothing less than fantasy’s No. 1 wideout since Week 3, reeling in 23-of-30 targets for 467 yards, three TDs and 66.7 fantasy points.
Staying power: 6. Jefferson has definitely started on a boom-or-bust track, but he and fellow top-five fantasy WR Adam Thielen have combined to command 44.9 percent (75 of 167) of the Vikings’ passing game targets so far. Minnesota always prefers to lean on the ground game, but a brutal defense is likely going to force Kirk Cousins to air it out more than the Vikes would like.
3) WR CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
Current position rank (fantasy points): 17 (56.6 in 5 games)
Positional ADP: 37
Most impressive achievement: Lamb has not only rapidly fit in with one of the league’s best offenses and passing attacks, he’s leading the way with 433 receiving yards and 56.6 fantasy points — tops among the team’s talented pass-catchers. And it’s his consistency that gives him the slight edge over Jefferson here as Lamb has had at least 10.9 fantasy points in every outing.
Staying power: 6. There’s some real and justifiable concern with starting QB Dak Prescott going down for the season in Week 5, but veteran Andy Dalton is among the league’s more capable backups. There’s also the narrative that the Cowboys will turn to the run more now with Dalton under center after ranking as the league’s second pass-heaviest offense (66.2 percent) through Week 5, but Dallas’ abominable defense (league-high 36 points surrendered per game entering Monday night) doesn’t figure to play along.
2) RB James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
Current position rank (fantasy points): 8 (80.9 points in 6 games)
Positional ADP: 53
Most impressive achievement: Undrafted out of FCS Illinois State, Robinson has seized hold of the Jaguars’ starting RB gig and hasn’t let go. He has accounted for 85 of the Jags’ 91 RB rushing attempts and 362 of the team’s 379 RB rushing yards while catching 23 of 26 targets for 207 yards. Only two other players (Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry) through Sunday had more yards from scrimmage than Robinson’s 569.
Staying power: 8. Even though the Jags own the league’s lowest rushing-play percentage (32.3), when they do run, it’s with Robinson and he’s well on the way to becoming this season’s out-of-nowhere RB1 surprise.
1) WR Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers
Current position rank (fantasy points): 5 (71.6 in 5 games)
Positional ADP: 78
Most impressive achievement: Pittsburgh’s latest wideout sensation has quickly emerged as the best fantasy weapon on a stacked Steelers offense, thanks largely to his six TDs (two rushing), tied for second among league wide receivers. He leads the Steelers in receiving yards (335) with 141 more than JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has six more receptions.
Staying power: 5. Claypool is tied for only fourth on the team in targets (24) and that’s with fellow wideout Diontae Johnson (26 targets) missing nearly two full games with a back issue. Claypool also has been involved as a ball-carrier with six rushes for 21 yards and two TDs, but his overall video game numbers — 14.0 yards per target and six TDs on only 23 touches — are simply unsustainable and don’t be surprised if he falls back toward the WR pack in the Steel City.
Most disappointing fantasy rookies (to date)
5) WR Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles
Current position rank (total standard-scoring fantasy points): 118 (9.6 in 2 games)
Positional ADP: 53
Statistical shortfall: With pass-catchers Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson and Dallas Goedert battling injuries, the door was wide open for the speedy first-round selection to step in and make an immediate impact, but he’s fallen prey to the same Philly injury curse (torn thumb ligament) and has been limited to 100 early-season snaps, resulting in five catches for 96 yards. That’s deprived the Eagles and many of his fantasy owners of a much-needed weapon.
Chances to improve: 9. Reagor is due back after Philly’s Week 9 bye, and even if he’s slow to heal, misses that mark by a couple weeks and winds up playing only half a season with average WR4 production, it will be better than next to nothing.
4) RB Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills
Current position rank (fantasy points): 62 (13.4 in 3 games)
Positional ADP: 40
Statistical shortfall: We have another injured-addled pro debut so far here, as Moss entered Buffalo’s Week 6 Monday night game with only 20 touches on 67 snaps in two games due to a toe issue. He exited with 25 touches. Moss also had a track record of missed time and health issues in college at Utah, and so far, it’s looking like more of the same at the next level.
Chances to improve: 9. Buffalo lead Devin Singletary has been struggling, totaling only 46.5 fantasy points in the Bills’ first six games, so Moss has a legit shot at taking over Buffalo lead-back duties if he can stay on the field.
3) WR Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
Current position rank (fantasy points): 52 (32.6 in 5 games)
Positional ADP: 39
Statistical shortfall: The opportunity has been there for the taking in a Denver offense missing three of its top passing-game targets (TE Noah Fant and WRs Courtland Sutton and K.J. Hamler) for most of the season, but the first-round pick has failed to take full advantage, catching 17 of a team-most 33 targets for 266 yards and one TD so far. Dropped passes have been a problem in Jeudy’s inefficient 51.5 catch percentage.
Chances to improve: 8. Sutton is gone for the season and QB Drew Lock has only played two full games so far. The Broncos also have gone up against some tough secondaries (Steelers, Bucs and Patriots) so look for Jeudy’s efficiency and production to start trending in the right direction, even though his fantasy ceiling looks to be WR3 production.
2) RB J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
Current position rank (fantasy points): 40 (34.8 points in 6 games)
Positional ADP: 30
Statistical shortfall: If we had known this summer that the rushing numbers (attempts and yards) would be down for both QB Lamar Jackson and lead RB Mark Ingram this season and the Ravens would still be a top-two NFL rushing squad, Dobbins would’ve been a much hotter fantasy commodity. Instead, Dobbins is averaging only six touches and 38 total yards per contest, and following 14.2 fantasy points with two TDs in Week 1, he hasn’t cleared 6.1 points or found the end zone in five games since.
Chances to improve: 7. Dobbins is averaging 1.7 more yards per rush and 1.6 more yards per touch than either Ingram or fellow RB Gus Edwards and has caught 11 passes to a combined three for the other two backs, easily making him the team’s most efficient RB so far. That should earn the rookie more touches and snaps down the stretch, especially if Ingram’s Week 6 ankle injury proves to be anything serious.
1) RB Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
Current position rank (fantasy points): 75 (11.7 in 4 games)
Positional ADP: 25
Statistical shortfall: The second-round pick did miss Weeks 2 and 3 with a rib injury, but has seen only 27 touches in the Rams’ other four contests — including none Sunday night in Week 6 — for a total of 117 scoreless total yards. Fellow backs Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown, meanwhile, are averaging 13.2 and 11.2 touches per contest, making Akers the third wheel in the L.A. backfield.
Chances to improve: 5. Akers certainly has potential for bigger and better things in an above-average offense, but the other two backs appear to offer more explosion (Henderson) and sound veteran consistency (Brown), and the rookie really might need an injury to one of those two to approach any kind of usable touches.
