This matchup is so ridiculously good that it would be a shame not to take advantage of it.
Every week, at least one player becomes my fascination of whether he’s worthy of a fantasy football start as a streamer. The decision can be a mental wrestling match, but for the purpose of brevity, only one player can be chosen as the fantasy football gamble of the week.
The best fantasy football gamble for Week 4
Tracking my predictions: 0-3-0
Win: Player produces ≥ 75% of projected fantasy points
Loss: Player produces >75% of projected fantasy points
Tie: Player is ejected, leaves with an injury, or lands on COVID-19 list after publishing
2021 record: 8-9-1
2020 record: 5-10-1
Here we go again … Tennessee Titans TE Austin Hooper vs. Las Vegas Raiders was last week’s choice, and it was a total flop. He played the fewest snaps of his season and finished with 19 yards on two catches while positional mate Geoff Swaim racked up 10.9 PPR points. Hooper ended up listed on Wednesday’s injury report with a neck issue, but it’s unclear if it made an impact on his role — such a thing would qualify as a “tie” under the aforementioned rules.
The San Diego Stater hasn’t been terrible through three starts, but Penny’s torrid pace late in 2021 seems like a distant memory at this point. Defenses aren’t afraid of quarterback Geno Smith, especially when it comes to unleashing a deep ball, which was a constant fear when facing Russell Wilson’s Seahawks.
Penny has rushed 32 times for 141 yards at a respectable clip of 4.4 yards per tote. The veteran’s talent never has been in doubt — staying on the field has been his main problem. Going forward, there’s more pressing concern that can be found in the way of rusher Kenneth Walker III. The rookie is gaining steam as he better learns the offense and also finds his way back into form following offseason hernia surgery. He popped up on Thursday’s report with a shoulder injury but was a full participant. While I prefer Walker over the course of the season, all we need here is one week of Penny leading the backfield in carries. He’s not much of a receiver, though it may not even matter with this matchup.
Detroit has given up the most fantasy points to running backs in both predominant scoring formats through three contests. Most of the success has come via touchdowns. No team has given up more in terms of the raw number (6) and also efficiency — one per every 10.5 attempts. Yardage-wise, this is the 12th-best opponent to face on the ground and No. 11 for aerial gains. Overall, this matchup is 44.2 percent better than the league average.
No single performance was greater than 18.5 points (Miles Sanders in Week 1). What stands out the most is seven of the nine backs who touched the ball even once against Detroit each scored at least 11.2 PPR points. That’s hard to reconcile. The Lions aren’t particularly good vs. the pass, either. Against most other quarterbacks I’d be inclined to say that’s a worrisome factor, but it is just not how the Smith-led Seahawks prefer to attack. There’s always the chance Detroit manages to hang some points early on and force Seattle into a pass-happy script, as we saw the ‘Hawks have to do vs. Atlanta in Week 3, though I’m not terribly confident in the Lions with D’Andre Swift (shoulder, ankle) unlikely to play and WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) being iffy.
Penny should be able to do enough damage with around 15 utilizations to warrant an RB2 or flex play, depending on one’s league size.
My projection: 13 carries, 68 yards, 1 TD, 2 receptions, 11 yards (15.9 PPR)
