Tag: Week 18 daily fantasy sports

Week 18 is here. That feels so weird to say. Some season-long records will be set, assumedly with an asterisk, but even as we segue out of the regular season, know that the Dominator will roll on through the playoffs.

When putting together the picks this week we attempt to take into account the players who may or may not play a whole game based on what they have to play for.

DFS: The Saturday Slate

Patrick Mahomes has a tough matchup against the Denver Broncos on Saturday. As always, he is the highest-ceiling QB on the slate, just know that the ceiling isn’t that high here. You will feel great if he finishes with 325-3, but don’t count on that.

Drew Lock will get at least one more start for Denver. His performances so far this year do not instill a ton of confidence. Pairing that with a mostly elite KC pass defense (yes, they were burned last week by an elite passing offense), I will easily rank him at QB4 on the slate. If all of his weapons can come off the COVID list this week, he may have some garbage-time appeal, but that is about it.

Darrel Williams will be a safe RB2 on this slate with Clyde Edwards-Helaire out. Derrick Gore will only have minimal value as a change of pace. That said, you can use him out as a bargain play in Showdown contests.

It is safe to say that either Melvin Gordon or Javonte Williams by themselves would be the RB1 on the slate. Unfortunately, they continue to evenly split the workload. Even in the timeshare, I like them as the RB3-RB4 range here. The strategy is to make multiple lineups each featuring one of the Dallas RBs and one of the Denver RBs.

Tyreek Hill is going to have a tough matchup here. That said, there aren’t many reliable options at WR with a good matchup on this slate. I’ll probably end up choosing to use either Hill or Travis Kelce, but not both. Byron Pringle may be the solution to getting additional exposure to KC’s offense here. He has been the primary WR2 for the Chiefs in recent weeks and definitely could be a WR3 here. Mecole Hardman has been less utilized of late, but he has enough potential explosion to his game that he could be considered as a punt WR3. Josh Gordon just isn’t being used enough to consider as anything other than a Showdown dart throw.

Denver should get back their entire WR room that was absent last week due to COVID. Jerry Jeudy is the top option in this offense. He is the fourth-best WR on the board, but I’d rank him at no higher than WR5. That is because I like Tim Patrick better based on the matchup and price. Courtland Sutton led the WRs last week as the last man standing; here, he will revert to the sixth-option in this offense. That makes him no better than a desperation punt WR3. Kendall Hinton is once again off the radar.

Travis Kelce is the best TE on a loaded slate at the position. Despite the talent level, I actually have him ranked at TE2 here. That said, with four great players to choose from, this is the slate to run double-TE, triple-TE, or even the ridiculous quadruple-TE strategy. Just know that you really need one of either Kelce or Tyreek Hill on every roster.

Seldom will Noah Fant be the TE4 on a small slate. I still love the play and could see tag-teaming him with at least one other TE as Drew Lock obviously loves throwing to him. Albert Okwuegbunam is in play on Showdown contests, but I just don’t see a role for him in main tourneys.

The KC defense should be the top choice this week. That means that if you want to be contrarian, I’d play one of the D’s in the other game. Denver has a very good defense, but I am not channeling them against Mahomes.

Dak Prescott looks like the obvious safe play at QB if you don’t use Mahomes. He survived and thrived earlier this season, despite the absence of Michael Gallup. I feel he will once again do that here. Philly actually doesn’t have a rotten secondary, despite what might be perceived based on the eye test. Still, I like Dak to throw for close to 300 yards and a pair of scores.

I’ll admit to being wrong about Jalen Hurts this year. I really did not think he’d last as the starter all year long. His legs have carried him where his arm cannot. Here he gets the nominal QB3 slot. Although, his value will be better than what you’d normally perceive from a QB3.

Philly is easier to run on than pass against. This is why I am going to go ahead and label Ezekiel Elliott the RB1 here. None of the RBs on this slate are sure things, so you might as well play the most talented of them. Tony Pollard is either the RB4 or RB5 here. He will see enough value to be a punt RB2 or FLEX play (though presume my FLEX will be a tight end).

We don’t know who will be able to play at RB for Philly this week. Miles Sanders is out. Both Boston Scott and Jordan Howard are on the COVID list, and their chances at clearing protocol by Saturday are slim. At this point, it looks like Kenneth Gainwell will be the starter this week. The matchup is awful, but based on volume alone he could be an RB2 option. Whoever starts will be no better than RB5 here. I at least have some faith in Scott if he can play … the others are all shots in the dark.

CeeDee Lamb will see a healthy dose of Darius Slay. This isn’t the death knell that it once was, but it doesn’t inspire confidence, either. By default, he will remain the WR3 here, but I wouldn’t make him my WR1. Amari Cooper is the safer play. He will be my WR2 behind Hill. That said, the best play among the Cowboys is Cedrick Wilson. His price dictates that he has to be your WR3. Noah Brown is slated to return from the IR for this game. He might have some value with Gallup out, but I’d leave him for Showdown contests. The same goes for Malik Turner.

DeVonta Smith is a highly talented WR. This week he will face off with Trevon Diggs. This is both a blessing and a curse. Hurts may be afraid to throw his way, because Diggs might pick him off. Of course, Diggs has also been burned more often than chocolate chip cookies in the employee break room microwave. He can be considered a WR3 option, but not a great one. Jalen Reagor had a great opportunity last week and failed to capitalize. I cannot trust him here, despite the fact that he actually led the Eagles in their earlier meeting with Dallas. I’d rather take a roll of the dice on Quez Watkins or Greg Ward. Although, truthfully, I’d rather avoid this WR room completely.

The pass-catcher from Philly that you want is Dallas Goedert. He has been a beast since Zach Ertz was traded. Most weeks, he would be the TE1 here. Unfortunately, he is only the TE3 here. Have I mentioned double-TE yet?

Speaking of double-TE, have I mentioned triple-TE? Dalton Schultz may be only the third-most talented TE on this slate, but he has the easiest matchup of any of them. This is why he is my TE1 here. Philly has been maligned by the position all season, and I see no reason to expect them to be any better here. Throw in the absence of Michael Gallup and that should equate to more targets for Schultz. The only thing that may ding Dalton here is if Blake Jarwin returns from the IR. If they both play, each may score. If it is just Schultz, expect a floor of 7-70-1.

With everyone using KC’s defense, consider either of these two teams as a pivot. They may give up a few points, but both are capable of special teams scoring, and both have guys who can pull off a Pick 6. The presence of Trevon Diggs gives Dallas a slight bump in my opinion.

The Main Slate: My recommended DFS lineups

At DK: $6.7k for Matthew Stafford. $6k for Devin Singletary. $5.7k for D’Onta Foreman. $9.7k for Cooper Kupp. $6.3k for Brandin Cooks. $4.1k for Antoine Wesley. $3.1k for Cameron Brate. $6k for Eli Mitchell. $2.4k for the Detroit Lions defense.

At FD: $6.3k for Case Keenum. $10.2k for Jonathan Taylor. $6.9k for Foreman. $10k for Kupp. $6k for Jarvis Landry. $5.4k for Wesley. $5.2k for Pat Freiermuth. $6.7k for Singletary at FLEX. $3.2k for the Detroit defense.

At Fanball (SuperFlex – includes Sun Night): Keenum, Stafford at SF, Taylor, and Austin Ekeler, Chase Edmonds (If he plays, otherwise use Singletary) at FLEX, Kupp, Christian Kirk, Hayden Hurst (If Kyle Pitts doesn’t play, otherwise Kristian Wilkerson), and Brate at TE.

Quarterback

Weekly strategy – All of the positions have players not playing the whole game. We hope to have updates prior to Friday, since backups pressed into starting roles potentially could produce solid volume numbers. Josh Allen should play the full game, so he, Kyler Murray, and Matthew Stafford would be the safest high-dollar plays. Tayson Hill and Carson Wentz are the top pivots as both are also assumed to play the whole game. Ben Roethlisberger has a good matchup as does Jared Goff. Either would be a decent punt option (although keep an eye on Goff’s injury status). Davis Mills could also be a punt option. Brandon Allen and Case Keenum have already been named replacement starters, and it is speculated Jordan Love may start for Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers says he is not resting, so keep an eye on it. Of that threesome, only Keenum will be in play for me. I actually really like him.

Fantasy Four-pack

Josh Allen, Bills vs. NYJ
($8,100 DK, $8,800 FD)
Devin Singletary has begun to run more for the Bills recently. He is the one concern I have with Allen this week. Fortunately, Allen can still produce enough yards on the ground and through the air versus a subpar Jets defense to make him a strong play here. Plus, with the division title and a possible home playoff game at stake, Buffalo will be going all out here.

Kyler Murray, Cardinals vs. SEA
($7,400 DK, $8,400 FD)
Murray may actually be a safer floor play than Allen (especially if James Conner remains out with his heel injury). Seattle hasn’t faced many quality QBs this season. They still are among the worst in the league against the pass. Their lack of success includes allowing Colt McCoy to throw for 328-2 in Week 11. They also just allowed Tim Boyle to look like an All-Pro. I love the stack this week with either Zach Ertz or Antoine Wesley.

Matthew Stafford, Rams vs. SF
($6,700 DK, $7,400 FD)
We know that Cooper Kupp has season-long records in his sights. This means the Rams will do everything in their power to get him to those marks. San Francisco is softer against the pass than the run, so Stafford should be good for two or three passing scores and nearly 300 yards.

Taysom Hill, Saints @ ATL
($6,200 DK, $7,700 FD)
A game in Atlanta ensures that weather will not be a factor. We also know that the Saints need to win to have any shot at making the playoffs. Atlanta has allowed the fourth-most passing TDs and the third-most QB rushing yards (plus 4 QB rushing scores). Hill never can be counted on for huge passing numbers, but he is always in play for a TD or two on the ground.

DFS Sleepers

Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers @ BAL
($5,400 DK, $6,700 FD)
Big Ben looked washed on Monday, but this matchup is considerably easier on paper. Plus, Pittsburgh is still mathematically alive for the postseason, and Roethlisberger is playing for the chance to extend his career. Either way, the Steelers are going all out and then some here. It helps that Baltimore is abysmal against the pass, allowing the most aerial yards and the second-most passing TDs on the year. I particularly like the stack with either Pat Freiermuth or Diontae Johnson (if he clears the COVID protocol). If Diontae remains out, consider James Washington or Ray-Ray McCloud.

Case Keenum, Browns vs. CIN
($4,800 DK, $6,300 FD)
Considering Baker Mayfield played half of the season with a major shoulder injury, Keenum may prove to be a better fantasy play than Baker would’ve been here. Cincy has allowed the sixth-most passing yards this year and may be resting some of their defensive starters here. Cincinnati has been particularly rotten against opposing TEs, so I love the stack of Keenum with one of the Cleveland tight ends.

Running Back

Weekly strategy – Jonathan Taylor will be given as much work as he can handle here in a win-and-in scenario for Indy. Both Alvin Kamara and Nick Chubb could be suitable pivots for a few dollars of savings. If Damien Harris plays he is a solid option, but part of me wants him to sit out so I can use Rhamondre Stevenson at a bargain-basement price. Devin Singletary is unreliable, but he has a cake matchup. Chase Edmonds (if he plays) and D’Onta Foreman also both have easy matchups, but both could see their touches gouged by veterans returning from injuries. Watch the statuses of James Conner and Derrick Henry leading up to these respective games. If either or both are out, then Foreman and Edmonds make great discount plays. Jaret Patterson could have some value if Antonio Gibson remains out. Jamaal Williams is in the same boat if D’Andre Swift remains a decoy. Still, if I am going to punt the obvious choices are Samaje Perine and Michael Carter.

Fantasy Four-pack

Jonathan Taylor, Colts@ JAX
($9,300 DK, $10,200 FD)
It is win-and-in for Indy, so expect Taylor to get the rock as many times as his body can stand. Jacksonville is better against the pass than the run, but they aren’t great versus either. With everything on the line, Taylor could have a 200-2 type of game, and his floor is astronomical.

Alvin Kamara, Saints @ ATL
($8,300 DK, $9,000 FD)
Taysom Hill is always a threat to vulture scores from Kamara. That said, Kamara remains the best rusher and the most reliable pass-catcher on this offense. New Orleans needs this win to have a shot at the postseason, so it would make sense for them to feature Kamara this week. Atlanta is equally bad against RBs on the ground and through the air, so opportunities should be abundant.

Nick Chubb, Browns vs. CIN
($7,900 DK, $8,200 FD)
Chubb’s Week 17 usage was limited due to a rib issue. This week, we hope he is capable of being the featured back that we have come to expect from him. As I mentioned above, Cincy will likely rest some defensive starters. This should make an already positive matchup even sweeter.

AJ Dillon, Packers @ DET
($6,200 DK, $7,300 FD)
Aaron Jones may sit this one out, which would leave Dillon as the lead back – at least until the team ices him as well. Detroit has allowed the second-most total TDs to opposing RBs. This includes allowing four scores to Jones back in Week 2. The only thing that will hold back Dillon here is when he is pulled from this game. Hopefully, he scores twice before then.

DFS Sleepers

Devin Singletary, Bills vs. NYJ
($6,000 DK, $6,700 FD)
Singletary has scored four times in the last three weeks as Buffalo has finally committed to him as a featured RB. Now, can we really trust him? Not so much that I won’t use him exclusively (especially consider pivoting to Rhamondre Stevenson if Damien Harris is out). Still, no team has allowed more total RB scores than the Jets. So, if Singletary is the real deal, he should be a real steal here.

Samaje Perine, Bengals @ CLE ($5,300 DK, $6,500 FD)
Joe Mixon has already been ruled out for this contest. This means we should get Samaje as the lead back against a Cleveland defense that just got throttled by Najee Harris. Brandon Allen is not going to win this game on his own, expect the backup QB to dump the ball off a lot to both Perine and the TEs.

Wide Receiver

Weekly strategy – Cooper Kupp doesn’t have the easy matchup he had last week. Still, he is looking to establish some season-long records, so just play him and save money elsewhere. Stefon Diggs, Diontae Johnson (if he plays), and A.J. Brown are the WR1 pivots. Brandin Cooks, Terry McLaurin, and Christian Kirk are my favorite WR2 options. DJ Moore, Jarvis Landry, and Marquez Callaway could be discount WR2 options. If you choose to use them consider stacking them with their QBs. Braxton Berrios and Cole Beasley, plus any of the Buccaneers, can be considered there, too. My WR3 will likely be Antoine Wesley. If I don’t use him, I could choose to use Josh Reynolds, one of the Texans, or the new Patriots’ toy, Kristian Wilkerson. 

Fantasy Four-pack

Cooper Kupp, Rams vs. SF
($9,700 DK, $10,000 FD)
Kupp remains the safest play week-to-week to rely on for upwards of 30 points. This week, he is looking to rewrite the record books (technically with an asterisk), so he will get as many targets as he can handle. The matchup isn’t elite, but Sean McVay will do everything necessary to ensure he gets those records. 

Stefon Diggs, Bills vs. NYJ
($7,800 DK, $7,700 FD)
This game script could limit some of Diggs’s productivity. Still, he is the alpha WR on an offense looking to seal up a division title facing a bad New York defense. It would be glorious if he could repeat his Week 10 line of 8-162-1. 

A.J. Brown, Titans @ HOU
($7,000 DK, $7,400 FD)
Unless we see a return of Derrick Henry this week, Brown will be counted on as the primary weapon for Tennessee versus the Texans. Houston is decent against the pass, but Brown has destroyed them in his brief career. He exited week 11 early with an injury limiting his final stats there, but in his four prior games, he totaled 27-447-5 against them. 

Justin Jefferson, Vikings vs. CHI
($8,100 DK, $8,500 FD)
For no obvious reason other than Mike Zimmer doesn’t care anymore, Minnesota will plan on trotting out their starters for this useless game. Fortunately, the players still care, even if the coach doesn’t. Jefferson is an elite talent and Minnesota will be without their other top WR, Adam Thielen, so I expect him to have a decent day here based on volume alone. Plus, Jefferson has an outside shot at besting one of Randy Moss’ season-long records.

DFS Sleepers

Jarvis Landry, Browns vs. CIN
($5,400 DK, $6,000 FD)
If I choose to use Case Keenum, it would behoove me to pair him with his PPR beast WR, Landry. Jarvis doesn’t score enough to make me love him week-to-week, but against a so-so Bengals defense that may rest some starters, I feel better using him (possibly stacked with one of the TEs).

Antoine Wesley, Cardinals vs. SEA
($4,100 DK, $5,400 FD)
Seattle has struggled mightily against the pass all season. Meanwhile, Wesley has stepped into the red-zone threat role vacated by DeAndre Hopkins, scoring three times in the last two weeks. Arizona is all-in for this week, so I will have maximum exposure to either Wesley or Christian Kirk.

Tight End

Weekly strategy – Mark Andrews has an awfully tough matchup. He is still so white-hot right now, it will be hard to fade him (especially with a weak upper tier to choose from). George Kittle was underutilized by Trey Lance. If Jimmy Garoppolo plays, bump Kittle’s value up significantly. Kyle Pitts is questionable with an injury, and Rob Gronkowski might not play the whole game. This leaves Dawson Knox, Zach Ertz, and Pat Freiermuth as my favorite plays. With a lot of money spent at WR, I may pay down here for one of the Browns, Hayden Hurst, James O’Shaughnessy (if he plays), one of the Packers, or Cameron Brate.

Fantasy Four-pack

Mark Andrews, Ravens vs. PIT
($7,500 DK, $8,500 FD)
This is the roughest matchup that Andrews has had in quite some time. Pittsburgh is elite against opposing TEs but Andrews has been screaming white-hot over the last two months. I’m probably not going to pay this much for him, but throwing out a lineup with him and whoever his QB is this week isn’t a crazy idea. On a weak week for TEs, he may still finish with the most points.

Dawson Knox, Bills vs. NYJ
($5,400 DK, $6,000 FD)
The player with the best chance to pass Andrews in points this week is Knox. He has been very quiet the last two weeks, which should keep his ownership down. That is the best time to strike, especially against a pathetic Jets team that can be bested at every position.

George Kittle, Niners @ LAR
($6,700 DK, $6,900 FD)
We cannot be overly happy about Kittle’s usage with Trey Lance under center last week. Fortunately, Jimmy Garoppolo may return this week. If Lance starts, I’d probably refrain from using Kittle at this price. That said if Jimmy G. starts, use Kittle and watch the money come rolling in. It should be pointed out that it is easier to throw to TEs against LA than to throw at their cornerbacks covering WRs.

Zach Ertz, Cardinals vs. SEA
($5,300 DK, $5,600 FD) Seattle has allowed the fourth-most TE scores this season. Ertz hasn’t scored since Week 11 but does have 40 targets over the last four weeks. With no DeAndre Hopkins, both Ertz and Antoine Wesley make a great stack with Kyler Murray.

DFS Sleepers

Cameron Brate, Buccaneers vs. CAR
($3,100 DK, $4,900 FD)
With all of the injuries and the recent release of Antonio Brown, Tampa needs their remaining weapons to step it up. This week, we don’t know how much the remaining starters will play. That means we may see a lot of second-teamers, including both Brate and O.J. Howard. Carolina is middle-of-the-pack against the position, but someone will have to catch the ball here, and Tom Brady and Bruce Arians definitely trust him.

Josiah Deguara, Packers @ DET
($2,900 DK, $4,600 FD)
Green Bay has nothing to play for. This means that most of their premium weapons likely will play minimal snaps if any. This means once again the responsibility of providing scoring opportunities for Jordan Love will fall on the lesser Packers. Deguara, Marcedes Lewis, Amari Rodgers, and Equanimeous St. Brown will be the primary beneficiaries of this. Only three teams have allowed more TE receiving yards than Detroit. Lewis and Deguara should catch several passes here once the starters retire to the bench.