Sports blog information from USA TODAY.
The five best NFL player prop bets to make for the upcoming week.
For this week’s picks, we take a couple franchise running backs – one going Over, one going Under – an elite receiver showing why he’s elite, a MVP showing how to elongate drives against a division opponent, and a revenge play touchdown.
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A snapshot look at the NFL betting lines and odds for Week 16 sports betting and DFS action.
A good way to start your weekly homework for DFS (daily fantasy sports) play is to analyze the early Vegas odds around Week 16.
These guys have a long history of making money off of setting the right game spread and points scored. So it can be an early indicator of teams to target due to high-scoring potential, and teams to avoid for the opposite reason.
Odds provided by BetMGM Sportsbook
OFF = No odds currently listed.
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The five smartest wagers to take to the pay window for Week 16.
This week, we pick five games that have four with significant playoff implications and one that involves two teams that will only get the playoffs by buying tickets. We have a huge favorite covering double digits, a team locking down its first division title in 30 years, two potential Super Bowl matchups, and a “for relatives only” game between two teams hopelessly out of the playoff chase.
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A league-wide view into the best wagers to make for NFL Week 16 action.
I’m not sure long-term history will remember 2023 in the way those trying to configure title-winning fantasy football lineups will, but one thing that can be time-capsuled and unsurfaced 10 years from now is who was starting at QB to help you craft your playoff roster.
That list includes Jake Browning, Mitchell Trubisky, Easton Stick, Gardner Minshew, Joe Flacco, Case Keenum (most likely), Nick Mullens, C.J. Beathard (maybe), Bailey Zappe, Aidan O’Connell and Tommy DeVito.
With friends like that, who needs enemies? Good luck for those chasing down a title with a second-, third-, or fourth-string QB being asked to bring it home for you. In the meantime, let’s see how these backup quarterback situations fit in from a betting perspective.
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The Over/Under is quite high (46 points at -110 for both Over and Under). Of the Saints’ seven losses, they have scored fewer than 20 points in five of them. The Saints don’t have a win against a quality team and will struggle to put points on the board, which will play to the strengths of the Rams defense. Take the Under (-110).
The Bengals are a minimal road favorite (2 points at -110 for both the Bengals and Steelers). This is more of an indictment of the Steelers, who have scored 18 points or fewer in their last five games and their last two home losses have come to the Arizona Cardinals and New England Patriots. Cincinnati is much better than both those teams. Take the Bengals and lay 2 points (-110).
The Bills are massive favorites (12 points at -110 for both teams). Buffalo saved its season over the last two weeks by beating the Kansas City Chiefs and beating up the Dallas Cowboys, respectively. With the loss of Justin Herbert, the Chargers are on life support and their blowout loss to the Raiders may be a portent of things to come to close the season. Take the Bills and lay 12 points (-110).
The Over/Under is relatively high (44.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). While both teams are capable of scoring enough points to go over this number, both are at their best when they’re running the ball. If either team can string together a couple of long drives, it will make it difficult to combine for 45 or more points. Take Under 44.5 points (-110).
The Seahawks are small road favorites (2.5 points at -115 Seahawks, -105 Titans). Seattle has struggled over the last month-plus, but its last four games have been against the Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers (twice). The Seahawks saved their season last week with a win against Philly, and the Titans have lost their last two home games. Momentum has swung. Take the Seahawks and lay 2.5 points (-115).
The Over/Under is high for a division game (47 points at -110 for both). The Lions have gone over this number in four of their last five games and the Vikings have the passing weapons to try to come back if they fall behind early. If Detroit gets ahead, they don’t let up. Take Over 47 points (-110).
The Over/Under is very low (37 points at -110 for both). The Commanders haven’t scored more than 20 points in the last four games, and the Jets, while struggling, have a strong defense. New York has needed a strong defense because the offense has scored 13 or fewer points in seven of the last eight games and have been under this number in seven of the last nine. Take Under 37 points (-110).
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Despite losing their last two games, the Packers are solid road favorites (4.5 points at -115 Packers, -105 Panthers). The Packers have scored 20 or more points in their last five games and the Panthers have averaged 12 points a game in their last eight games. Of their 12 losses, Carolina has been beaten by more than seven points in nine of them. Take the Packers and lay 4.5 points (-115).
The Over/Under is low on this game (40 points at -110 for both). The Browns defense is elite, and it looks like C.J. Stroud (concussion) is going to be out again this week. Points will be at a premium and there are likely to be more field goals than touchdowns with both offenses hobbled. Take Under 40 points (-110).
The Jaguars have lost three straight games, and the Bucs have won three straight, but Jacksonville is the better team. If Trevor Lawrence plays, the Jaguars are capable of stringing together wins, and they need to stop the skid they’re in now. They will be willing to take risks and attack on both sides of the ball. (If Lawrence plays) Take the Jaguars on the moneyline (-105).
The Over/Under is pretty low given the two quarterbacks (43.5 points at -110 for both Over and Under). There is the chance to hit over this number, but this will be a game of field position. Expect a splash play or two for one of them to lock down a win between two teams making business decisions to not risk another injury to a franchise QB. Take Under 43.5 points (-110).
The Dolphins are small home favorites (1.5 points at -110 for both Cowboys and Dolphins). The Cowboys have been through a meat grinder in recent weeks, and the Dolphins haven’t had a signature win against an elite opponent, losing to the Bills, Eagles and Chiefs. But all those games were on the road. This one isn’t. Take the Dolphins and lay 1.5 points (-110).
Denver is a solid favorite (6.5 points at -110 for both teams). The Patriots simply can’t put up points consistently. They have scored 17 or fewer points in 11 of their last 13 games and aren’t a team built to come from behind. Take the Broncos and lay 6.5 points (-110).
The Chiefs remain stiff favorites despite uncharacteristic recent struggles (10 points at -110 for both teams). The Chiefs have dominated the Raiders in this series lately, including a 31-17 road win in Week 12. There will be plenty who take the Raiders, but the Chiefs are due for a game where they hit in all three phases. Take the Chiefs and lay 10 points (-110).
Despite three straight losses, the Eagles are huge favorites (12 points at -110 for both teams). The Eagles last six games have been against the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Seahawks and the Cowboys twice. The Giants will be their weakest opponent since October, and they’ll show there’s still some steam left in the engine. Take the Eagles and lay 12 points (-110).
The 49ers are solid home favorites (4.5 points at -110 for both). In their last six games, the 49ers have won by 31, 13, 18, 23, 12 and 16 points. This may be a game that will be replayed in the Super Bowl in February. I wouldn’t feel comfortable laying this many points to the Ravens, but the 49ers are the best team in the league right now and can force the road to the Super Bowl coming through Northern California by stepping up in primetime. Take the 49ers and lay 4.5 points (-110).
Use our staff’s weekly pick’em against the spread and straight up for the win.
NFL picks are provided for straight up (moneyline) and against the spread (ATS) NFL pick pools.
Each week’s spread picks are graded by the line as of when the person entered their picks. This will create situations in which a movement of the line can result in two participants having the correct pick but with different teams chosen during an individual game.
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DMD – David Dorey, SG – Steve Gallo, HS – Harley Schultz, CC – Cletis Cutts, CJB – Cory Bonini, HCG – HC Green, KH – Kevin Hickey
