The Cowboys fell to a Buffalo Bills team that refuses to conform to what the numbers describe them to be. The Bills came into Thanksgiving as the No. 18-ranked team by adjusted EPA differential and stomped the fifth-ranked Cowboys. Still, their steady climb up the ranks (they sat at No. 27 after Week 10) does lessen the blow for Dallas in this week’s rankings, even if it does nothing to lessen the blow to the fans’ hearts.
Expected Points, the foundation of many analytical arguments, uses data from previous NFL seasons to determine how many points a team is likely to come away with on a given play based on down, distance, time remaining, and field position. The difference in expected points at the start of a play and expected points at the end is referred to as expected points added, or EPA.
A play with a positive EPA means it put the offense in a better position to score, while negative EPA implies the offense is in a worse position.
The below rankings represent team EPA differential (offense EPA minus defense EPA) adjusted for opponent strength.
Buffalo continues their ascension into a territory where EPA might consider them to be as good as their 9-3 record suggests. Josh Allen had the best EPA/dropback in the NFL in Week 13. And don’t look now, but of the five quarterbacks selected in the first round of the 2017 draft, only Lamar Jackson has a better EPA/dropback than Allen.
Dallas, meanwhile, has lost three of their last four without falling out of the top five by EPA differential. The defense is still performing at a below average rate (reminder: negative EPA = good for defenses), but the offense still shows up as the second best in the NFL. It’s strange to say so after putting up a total of 24 points in the past two weeks, but we can’t forget that New England and Buffalo both have very good defenses. And they get Chicago next week, which means we could be in for another round of under-performing on the scoreboard while looking fine in the advanced box score.
The Cowboys’ biggest rival for the division crown, the Philadelphia Eagles, plummeted six spots in this week’s ranks after a tough loss to the Miami Dolphins. The Eagles now sit as the NFL’s most average team, with an adjusted EPA differential of almost exactly 0. Miami has spent the entire season at the bottom of these rankings, but did manage to improve their differential this week.
The San Francisco 49ers surpassed the Patriots for the number two spot this week despite the loss. Their defense made a statement by holding the Ravens to fewer than 30 points for the first time in five games and to their lowest point total of the season. The marquee match up of the weekend lived up to the hype, and both teams managed to improve their standing by EPA differential.
This Ravens-49ers game also shone light on the newest trend in football: going for it on fourth down before your team is in desperation mode. There were six fourth down conversion attempts in this single game alone. Across the NFL, this week saw more conversion attempts before the fourth quarter than any week since at least 2009.
This is the third week this season to pop up into the top-10 list above, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see another one show up later this year. Teams are being more aggressive on fourth down, and the Ravens specifically are proving just how successful that can make a team.
Splitting up team offense by play type, the Ravens obviously remain miles ahead of everyone else. The Cowboys, as some might overlook, are the only other team in the top-5 in both adjusted pass and rush EPA. This offense is performing as well as nearly any other team in the NFL, and the main reason the Cowboys are still heavily favored to win the division. Their defense, on the other hand, isn’t doing them any favors.
The Cowboys are below average against the pass and the run by adjusted EPA, though very close against the pass. Meanwhile the Patriots and 49ers are attempting to break everyone’s charts with their incredible passing defense. The Bills defense sits right among that second tier of pass defenses, making Dak Prescott’s 7.2 Y/A, 2 touchdown day much more impressive than it may look on the surface.
Week 14 features a smattering of games between the top playoff contenders, with Buffalo getting their biggest test hosting the Ravens. We’ll also get two games between top-10 teams by EPA differential (49ers at Saints, Chiefs at Patriots). It all kicks off on Thursday with Dallas once again taking center stage against yet another of the league’s top defenses in the Chicago Bears.
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