Washington Wizards vs. Miami Heat odds predictions pick betting line

Washington Wizards at Miami Heat odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Washington Wizards at Miami Heat and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Washington Wizards (17-16) travel to South Beach Tuesday to play the Miami Heat (21-13) at FTX Arena. The tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Wizards vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami enters on a three-game winning streak with victories over the Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons, and Orlando Magic.

Over the past two weeks, the Heat are 5-2 straight-up (SU), 3-4 ATS and 3-4 O/U with the eighth-best non-garbage time net rating (plus-4.7 points per 100 possessions), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Washington got clobbered 117-96 by the Philadelphia 76ers Sunday as 4-point home underdogs. The Wizards are 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS and 4-2 O/U in the last 14 days with the 26th-ranked adjusted net rating (minus-9.1 points per 100 possessions), per CTG.

This is the regular-season rubber match between these teams with the home team winning and covering the first two meetings, and either side of the total cashing in each contest.

Wizards at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.

Money line: Wizards +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Heat -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Wizards +6.5 (-115) | Heat -6.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Wizards at Heat key injuries

Wizards

SG Bradley Beal (health and safety protocols) questionable
PF Rui Hachimura (health and safety protocols) out
SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (health and safety protocols) out
PG Raul Neto (health and safety protocols) out

Heat

PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
PG Kyle Lowry (health and safety protocols) out
C Dewayne Dedmon (knee) out
C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out

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Wizards at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 107, Wizards 95

Money line

PASS since I like Miami to win outright but not enough to lay it with the Heat (-260). However, Miami wing Jimmy Butler returned from an eight-game absence in the Heat’s last game vs. the Magic.

Before his injury, Butler was playing at an All-NBA-caliber. Butler is third in PER, Win Shares per 48 and box plus/minus. Furthermore, Butler is averaging 30.5 points per game on 57.9% shooting with a plus-29 net rating vs. the Wizards this season.

Against the spread

BET 1 unit on the HEAT -6.5 (-107) because they’ve been hit by sharp money early and this is a better spot for Miami.

For instance, this game opened with the Heat laying 6 points but is increasing due to pro-Miami action. Both teams are missing a bunch of players due to COVID but that’s already accounted for in the line.

With that in mind, the Heat are 5-1 ATS at home vs. teams with a winning record. While the Wizards are 6-13-1 ATS on the road and 1-4-1 ATS when being spotted 5-7 points.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 208.5 (-107) since we are getting reverse line movement despite most of the situation-based trends suggesting Wizards-Heat would be a low-scoring game.

According to both Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app, a vast majority of the money is on the Over, but the total for this game has been lowered from the 210-point lookahead number.

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Washington Wizards at Miami Heat odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Washington Wizards at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Washington Wizards (10-4) roll into “South Beach” Thursday for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off with the Miami Heat (10-5) at FTX Arena. Below, we look at the Wizards vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Both of these teams are playing in the second of a back-to-back. Washington had its five-game win streak snapped Wednesday in a 97-87 loss at the Charlotte Hornets. while Miami rallied back from a 15-point first-quarter deficit to pound the New Orleans Pelicans 113-98 as a 6.5-point home favorite.

The Wizards are 9-5 ATS and 4-10 O/U with the eighth-best net rating (plus-3.8). The Heat are 11-4 ATS and 9-6 O/U with the 3rd-best net rating (plus-7.8).

Miami won two of three regular-season meetings with Washington last season but the Wizards were 2-1 ATS in those games and the Under went 2-1.

Wizards at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.

Money line: Wizards +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | Heat -290 (bet $290 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Wizards +6.5 (-110) | Heat -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 206.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Wizards at Heat key injuries

Wizards

PG Spencer Dinwiddie (rest) doubtful
PF Davis Bertans (ankle) out
PF Rui Hachimura (personal) out
C Thomas Bryant (knee) out

Heat

C Bam Adebayo (knee)

Wizards at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 106, Wizards 97

Money line

PASS since Miami is the right side but the Heat (-290) are too pricey to bet outright. Washington is due for regression whereas you could argue Miami is better than its record indicates.

The Wizards have the seventh-best win differential according to net efficiency and the Heat rank 22nd in win differential according to CleaningTheGlass.com, which removes garbage time from its stat tracking.

What is Washington’s most impressive victory? The Wizards beat the current 6-seed Cleveland Cavaliers but that’s the only team with a winning record Washington has defeated. Miami has toppled the Utah Jazz (twice), Dallas Mavericks, Brooklyn Nets and Charlotte Hornets.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the HEAT -6.5 (-110) because Miami does a good job defending what Washington does often and this is a better spot for the Heat.

Whe Wizards attempt the ninth-highest volume of mid-range shots (CleaningTheGlass.com) and the Heat have the fourth-best defensive field goal percentage vs. mid-range attempts.

The absence of Dinwiddie would be meaningful to the line. Miami can focus more of its perimeter defensive bandwidth on defending Washington guard Bradley Beal who’s in the 97th percentile of guards at mid-range shot volume.

Miami has the second-highest cover rate in the second of a back-to-back at 10-3-1 ATS since the beginning of last season. Plus the Wizards are 0-2 ATS when being spotted 5-7 points and Miami is 6-0 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season.

My reasons for the “LEAN” to the HEAT -6.5 (-110) are they’ll most certainly be the more popular side and I’d rather bet on Miami coming off a loss rather than a win.

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 206.5 (-108) for a tiny wager if at all because we are getting to the party late and I prefer Miami’s spread more than the total in this contest. Wizards-Heat opened with a 210.5-point total but was immediately steamed down by early action.

However, both teams rank 23rd or slower in pace and rank seventh or better in defensive efficiency. Also, Washington has gone Under the total in seven straight games and three of the previous four Wizards-Heat meetings have gone Under the total.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

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