Tag: Washington Nationals vs. New York Yankees odds predictions pick betting line spread

Washington Nationals at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Washington Nationals at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Washington Nationals (58-68) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series against the New York Yankees (60-65) on Wednesday at Yankee Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Nationals lead 1-0

The Nationals defeated the Yankees 2-1 Tuesday as SS CJ Abrams and 3B Carter Kieboom hit solo home runs. Washington has won 8 of its last 10 games but remains 7 1/2 games back of the final NL Wild Card.

The Yankees produced only 2 hits in Tuesday’s series-opening loss, both off the bat of C Ben Rortvedt. New York has lost 9 straight games and is now 10 1/2 games back of the final AL Wild Card.

Nationals at Yankees projected starters

LHP MacKenzie Gore vs. RHP Luis Severino

Gore (6-9, 4.38 ERA) makes his 25th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 10.3 K/9 through 123 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 6-2 home win vs. Boston Red Sox last Wednesday
  • 2023 road stats: 4-5, 5.11 ERA (68 2/3 IP, 39 ER) in 13 starts
  • First career start vs. the Yankees

Severino (2-8, 7.98 ERA) makes his 15th start and 16th appearance. He has a 1.88 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 through 67 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 5 R (3 ER), 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 5-0 road loss vs. Atlanta Braves on Aug. 15.
  • 2023 home stats: 2-2, 6.00 ERA (30 IP, 20 ER) in 6 starts
  • First career start vs. Nationals

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Nationals at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:31 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Nationals +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Yankees -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-175) | Yankees -1.5 (+145)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Nationals at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Nationals 6, Yankees 4

Moneyline

The Yankees continually find ways to lose recently, so I’ll side with the NATIONALS (+115) on the road in Wednesday’s matchup. Washington has won 5 of its last 6 games, while New York is at risk of losing 10 consecutive contests on Wednesday.

Run line/Against the spread

Even though I have the Nationals +1.5 (-175) securing the victory, I’ll PASS on taking the run of insurance at the current odds.

Over/Under

OVER 9 (-115) is the pick in this showdown with the Yankees excelling against left-handed pitching and Severino’s woes this season. New York boasts the best wOBA (.438) and wRC+ (187) against southpaws since the start of August.

On the other hand, Severino has given up at least 3 earned runs in 10 of his last 12 starts.

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Washington Nationals at New York Yankees odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Washington Nationals at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (13-16) finish their series against the New York Yankees (17-16) Sunday in Yankee Stadium at 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York evened the series with Washington yesterday with a 4-3 extra-innings victory.

The Yankees, and New York SS Gleyber Torres specifically, spoiled an 8-inning, 1-run, 14-strikeout gem by Max Scherzer after Torres tied the game in the bottom of the 9th with an RBI single and hit a walk-off RBI single in the 11th.

Season series: 1-1.

RHP Joe Ross is on the rubber for the Nationals. Ross is 2-2 with a 4.39 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 across 5 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6-1, in 5 1/3 IP with 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 4 K vs. the Atlanta Braves Tuesday.
  • Career vs. the Yankees: No appearances.
  • Career in interleague play: 3-2 with a 4.79 ERA (35 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.21 WHIP and 10.1 K/9 over 6 starts and 1 relief appearance.

RHP Domingo Germán is the projected starter for the Yankees. Germán is 2-2 with a 4.68 ERA (25 IP, 12 ER), 1.24 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 over 5 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in 5 IP with 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K in New York’s 7-3 victory over the Houston Astros Tuesday.
  • Career vs. the Nationals: No appearances.

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Nationals at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:27 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Yankees -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-140) | Yankees -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Prediction

Yankees 7, Nationals 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the YANKEES (-165) for a half unit because their bullpen is more reliable and their lineup is more productive against righties.

For instance, New York’s lineup is middle of the league in several advanced hitting categories while Washington’s lineup is a bottom-10 crew in wRC+, wOBA and OPS.

Also, the Yankees relievers have the lowest xFIP, SIERA and WHIP in the Majors while the Nationals’ bullpen has the third-highest xFIP and the fifth-highest SIERA.

Lastly, I like the work FanGraphs does, which is a baseball advanced analytics website, and that site gives New York a 63.7% chance of winning this game but the implied probability of the YANKEES (-165) is 62.3%. I.e. there’s still value in New York’s money line based on advanced analytics.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the YANKEES -1.5 (+115) for a quarter unit because New York has the best run line record as a home favorite since the beginning of last season (27-19) and Washington’s pitching staff has been more lucky than good this year.

For example, the Nationals’ arms are 15th in ERA but have by far the lowest BAbip in MLB, which is a luck-based metric, and Washington pitchers have the sixth-worst xFIP and the second-worst WAR.

Over/Under (O/U)

Each lineup could plate some runs vs. the starters and weather forecasts predict nearly 10 MPH winds blowing out to left-center which help all the explosive right-handed hitters.

Statcast grades Ross in the 46th percentile of hard-hit rate, 14th percentile of expected wOBA and 23rd percentile in K%. Germán doesn’t grade out much better in advanced pitching metrics.

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-110) for a quarter unit.

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