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The Golden State Warriors (46-36) and Sacramento Kings (46-36) meet in the NBA Play-In Tournament at Golden 1 Center Tuesday. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET (TNT). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Warriors vs. Kings odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.
Season series: Tied 2-2
The Warriors won 10 of 12 straight up (SU) to finish the regular season but covered just once in their final 6 games, while the Kings lost 5 of 7 SU down the stretch but ended the regular season on a 4-2 against-the-spread (ATS) run.
Golden State was 2-1-1 ATS vs. the Kings in the regular season, and the Over/Under (O/U) went 2-2.
In their most recent meeting on Jan. 25, the Kings, as 1-point favorites, won 134-133 in Sacramento as the Over (244) hit. Kings C Domantas Sabonis scored the eventual game-winning dunk with 22 seconds remaining, and Warriors G Stephen Curry turned the ball over in the final seconds, wasting Golden State’s final possession.
The Warriors beat the Kings 4-3 in the 1st round of last season’s playoffs. The Kings went 4-3 ATS in the series, and the Under also went 4-3. The home team won the 1st 4 games SU, and the away side was victorious in the final 3.
Tuesday’s winner will be play the loser of the game between the Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans Pelicans for the 8th seed in the West while the loser is eliminated.
Warriors at Kings odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:31 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Warriors -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Kings +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
- Against the spread (ATS): Warriors -2.5 (-105) | Kings +2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 223.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Warriors at Kings key injuries
Warriors
- G Gary Payton II (calf) out
Kings
- G Kevin Huerter (shoulder) out
- G Malik Monk (knee) out
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
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Warriors at Kings picks and predictions
Prediction
Kings 111, Warriors 110
Moneyline
The Kings (+115) being home underdogs to the Warriors (-140) seems like an overreaction to both teams’ recent play.
Golden State has been winning games SU, but it has failed to cover in recent weeks against bottom-of-the-barrel teams such as the Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz (twice).
These poor outings could be due to lack of motivation to win by margin, but the more likely cause is that this is a Curry-dependent team that is not capable of putting together 4 quarters of good basketball.
The Kings haven’t looked great recently, but 10 of their last 13 games were against teams that made the postseason. They easily covered against the Jazz and Trail Blazers — unlike Golden State.
BET KINGS (+115).
Against the spread
The Kings should cover, but I prefer the plus odds on the ML.
PASS.
Over/Under
The Under has hit in 16 of Sacramento’s last 20 games and 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams.
Given the recent playoff history between Golden State and Sacramento, Tuesday should be a low-scoring, grind-it-out game — unlike their 134-133 shootout Jan. 25. However, the total was 227.5 Sunday evening, so we’d be getting the worst of the number at this point.
LEAN UNDER 223.5 (-110).
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