Warriors Heat odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Summer League: Golden State Warriors vs. Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Golden State Warriors (4-0) and Miami Heat (4-0) meet Sunday at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas. Tip-off for the Summer League semifinal game is scheduled for 4 p.m. ET (ESPN/ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Warriors vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Golden State posted a 90-83 win over Oklahoma City on Friday, although the Thunder picked up the cover as 9-point underdogs. Pat Spencer led the way for the Dubs with 17 points.

The Warriors have won all 4 games in Las Vegas, averaging 92.0 points per game (PPG) while allowing a mere 80.8 PPG to lead the Summer League. Golden State is 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in 4 games in Las Vegas, and 7-0 straight up (SU) across all summer play.

The Heat have rolled up a league-best 105.5 PPG, while allowing 84.8 PPG. The point differential of 20.7 in the Vegas Summer League is also the best mark among all teams. Miami is 4-0 ATS in summer play.

Warriors at Heat odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:01 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Warriors +142 (bet $100 to win $142) | Heat -176 (bet $176 to win $100)
Against the spread: Warriors +4 (-110) | Heat -4 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 177.5 (O: -113 | U: -113)

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Warriors at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 93, Warriors 87

Moneyline

MIAMI (-176) is the play if you’re a little more on the conservative side, and you would prefer not to fiddle around with the points.

The Heat have rolled up some huge offensive numbers, thanks in large part to the play of Kel’el Ware, who has averaged 17.3 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.0 BPG and 1.5 SPG. Josh Christopher is good for 17.3 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 2.5 APG and 2.3 SPG, while Cole Swider has a solid 12.0 PPG. The Heat are very deep, especially when Jaime Jaquez Jr. is on the floor, too.

Look for the Heat to push past the Dubs and advance to the Summer League title game.

Against the spread

Backing MIAMI -4 (-110) is the way to go if you’re a little more adventurous.

The Heat have taken on all comers, posting a Summer League best in point differential. Miami is a good bet to get the job done by at least 2 buckets and clinch a spot in the summer final on Monday night.

Just don’t bet more than 1½ UNITS between the Heat ML (-176) and the Heat -4 spread (-110).

Over/Under

OVER 177.5 (-113) is the way to go.

Miami has rolled up a crazy 105.5 PPG, easily the best in summer ball. However, it will have its hands full against a Golden State defense which has allowed just 80.8 PPG. Still, while the Heat might not hit their average, they also won’t be 20 or more points under.

Golden State has enough offense to hang, especially with Brandin Podziemski leading the way with 18.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 6.5 APG and 1.5 SPG with 3.5 3-pointers per outing.

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Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Golden State Warriors (36-34) take on the Miami Heat (39-32) Tuesday. Tip-off from Kaseya Center is set for 7:30 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Warriors vs. Heat odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: Heat lead 1-0

The Warriors opened their current 5-game road trip with a 114-100 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves Sunday as 2-point underdogs. It was their 2nd straight loss and 3rd in 4 games. They’re clinging on to the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference for the final play-in spot, leading the Houston Rockets by a half-game.

The Heat have won 4 of their last 6 games and are coming off a 121-84 home win over the Cleveland Cavaliers as 3.5-point favorites Sunday. They are 7th in the East, holding the top play-in spot. They trail the No. 6 Indiana Pacers by 1 game.

Warriors at Heat odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Warriors -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Heat +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors -1.5 (-115) | Heat +1.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 218.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Warriors at Heat key injuries

Warriors

C Trayce Jackson-Davis (knee) questionable

Heat

G Tyler Herro (knee) out
G Jaime Jaquez Jr. (ankle) questionable
F Kevin Love (heel) questionable
F Caleb Martin (ankle) questionable
F Duncan Robinson (back) out

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Warriors at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 108, Heat 104

Moneyline

In their 1st meeting this season (Dec. 28), the Heat won 114-102 in San Francisco as 6.5-point underdogs behind 26 points from Herro. In that game, G Stephen Curry shot only 3 for 15 and had 13 points, and F Draymond Green did not play.

This time around, Golden State (-135) is healthy, and Miami will be without Herro and Robinson.

The Warriors are 5-3 in their last 8 road games. The Heat have lost 3 of their last 4 home games.

I like the Warriors as the road favorites, and the odds at -135 are fine, but the spread odds are slightly better.

PASS.

Against the spread

The Heat are 1-7 ATS as home underdogs this season.

The Warriors are 11-4 ATS when favored on the road.

With only a 1.5-point spread, this is pretty easy.

BET WARRIORS -1.5 (-115).

Over/Under

The total in the Dec. 28 meeting was 216 points.

The Heat have gone 9 straight games without a total reaching 219.

The Warriors’ last 5 games, and 8 of their last 10, all have had totals of at least 219.

Miami’s opponents have scored more than 110 points only twice in its last 10 games.

BET UNDER 218.5 (-115).

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Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors (47-25) visit South Beach Wednesday for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off with the Miami Heat (47-25) at FTX Arena. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State is on a 3-game losing skid following a 4-game winning streak and is 4-3 against the spread (ATS) in the last seven games.

Miami is 3-3 straight up (SU) but just 1-5 ATS over the past two weeks with the latest being a 113-106 loss to a Joel Embiid- and James Harden-less Sixers team as an 8-point road favorite Monday.

The Warriors defeated the Heat 115-108 in San Francisco Jan. 3 but failed to cover as 10-point home favorites and Miami was without C Bam Adebayo.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA March 23 breakdown

Warriors at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:15 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Warriors +400 (bet $100 to win $400) | Heat -550 (bet $550 to win $100)
Against the spread: Warriors +9.5 (-115) | Heat -9.5 (-107)
Over/Under: 209.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Warriors at Heat key injuries

Warriors

PG Stephen Curry (foot) out
PF Draymond Green (back) out
SF Otto Porter Jr. (back) out
SG Klay Thompson (Achilles) out

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (ankle) questionable
PG Tyler Herro (knee) questionable
SF Caleb Martin (knee) questionable
SG Victor Oladipo (back) questionable
PG Gabe Vincent (toe) out

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Warriors at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 109, Warriors 103

Money line

PASS.

The Warriors (+400) announced it would be without their championship core (Curry, Green and Thompson) and the Heat (-550) are way too expensive.

Miami provided an example as to why bettors shouldn’t be laying big numbers with NBA regular-season ML favorites Monday after losing to the Sixers without its two star players.

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Against the spread

BET WARRIORS +9.5 (-115) because the Heat have been really bad recently and have their own injury issues.

Miami’s two leading scorers, Butler and Herro are listed as “questionable” and the Heat are 14th in adjusted-net rating (minus-0.1) and have the worst ATS margin (minus-9.7) over the past two weeks, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

Furthermore, Miami is just 2-7 ATS when laying more than 10 points and 14-17 ATS as a home favorite with a minus-2.8 ATS margin.

Also, Golden State has role players, and even an All-Star who can step up in the absence of its championship core in SG Jordan Poole. The third-year NBA guard is having a breakout season, SF Andrew Wiggins made his first All-Star Game this season and rookie PF Jonathan Kuminga has a very high ceiling.

BET WARRIORS PLUS THE POINTS.

Over/Under

PASS since it’s hard to project what Golden State’s offense looks like without three starters and we still don’t know the status of Miami’s two leading scorers.

For what it’s worth, the Warriors are 30-40-2 O/U overall and 16-18 O/U on the road; the Heat are 42-30 O/U, including 19-16 O/U at home.

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Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Thursday’s Golden State Warriors at Miami Heat NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The Miami Heat (24-24) play the second of a back-to-back when they host the Golden State Warriors (23-24) Thursday at American Airlines Arena. Tip-off is set for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Heat-Warriors odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Golden State snapped its four-game losing streak with a 116-102 win over the Chicago Bulls at home Monday in Stephen Curry’s first game back after being sidelined with an injured tailbone the previous five contests.

Miami won a second straight—following a six-game losing skid—by beating the Indiana Pacers last night 92-87 as 1.5-point road favorites, avenging back-to-back losses to Indiana March 19 and 21.

The Warriors defeated the Heat 120-112 in overtime at home Feb. 17, without three frontcourt players including defensive anchor Draymond Green, No. 2 overall pick C James Wiseman and C Kevon Looney.

Warriors at Heat: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Heat -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Warriors +2.5 (-110) | Heat -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 217.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Warriors at Heat: Key injuries

Warriors

PF Eric Paschall (wrist) out

Heat

SG Victor Oladipo (illness) probable
PG Kendrick Nunn (ankle) questionable

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Warriors at Heat: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Heat 111, Warriors 103

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to HEAT (-140) because it’s at the fringe of a money line price point I’d dip into the wallet for, and I wouldn’t hate parlaying Miami outright with another favorite for a plus-money payout.

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Against the spread (ATS)

The reason the HEAT -2.5 (-110) lost to a Warriors team without any bigs in their first meeting this season was because the Heat didn’t lean into what it does best and played at Golden State’s tempo.

Miami only got to the free-throw line 12 times, which is more than 10 free-throw attempts per game less than its season average.

This is an easily correctable mistake, and I expect Miami head coach Erik Spolestra to make these adjustments especially because the Heat aren’t in the place they’d like to be and are jostling for playoff seeding.

The Heat are ninth in FTA/FG rate, and the Warriors have the 2nd-highest defensive FTA/FG rate in the Association. So Miami should be able to rack up easy points in this game.

BET HEAT -2.5 (-110) for 1.25 units.

Over/Under (O/U)

All the situational O/U trends point to this game going Under, and these teams have a combined 40-55 O/U record this year.

Also, the market is barreling into the Under, which has steamed this total down a 1.5 points from the opener, but I side with the market in this handicap.

It’s only a “LEAN”, but BET UNDER 217.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit – if at all.

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