Warriors Grizzlies odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Golden State Warriors (14-11) visit the Memphis Grizzlies (18-9) Thursday. Tip-off from FedExForum is set for 7 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Golden State leads 1-0 with 123-118 home win Nov. 15

Golden State lost 143-133 to the Dallas Mavericks Sunday while failing to cover as a 1-point home underdog. The Warriors’ defense has continued to decline since starting the season out hot as they allowed 81 first-half points to Dallas and allowed the Mavs to shoot over 50% from the field and over 50% on 3-pointers.

This is likely to be the debut for G Dennis Schroder in Golden State, who the Warriors acquired from the Brooklyn Nets Sunday.

Memphis had its 4-game winning streak snapped in a 116-110 loss against the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday as a 2.5-point road favorite. The Grizzlies’ offense struggled and they shot just 39.2% from the field and 32.1% from deep vs. L.A.

Warriors at Grizzlies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NBA odds. Lines last updated at 6:29 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Warriors +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Grizzlies -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors +2.5 (-115) | Grizzlies -2.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 235.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Warriors at Grizzlies key injuries

Warriors

G Moses Moody (knee) out

Grizzlies

F Jay Huff (knee) out
G Ja Morant (back) questionable
G Marcus Smart (knee) questionable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Warriors at Grizzlies picks and predictions

Prediction

Grizzlies 117, Warriors 110

Moneyline

LEAN GRIZZLIES (-140).

Memphis is a blazing hot, going 8-2 in its last 10 games while the Warriors are just 2-8 in their last 10 games. The Grizzlies have also won 7 straight home games and are 4-1 in their last 5 home games against Golden State.

This is a lean because the Warriors have won the last 3 games against Memphis.

Against the spread

PASS.

The Warriors lead 6-4 over the last 10 meetings and despite the games being tightly contested, none have finished with a margin of victory smaller than 5 points since January of 2023.

Placing a small wager on the Grizzlies here is fine as whoever wins this game will likely do so by at least a few possessions, but the Warriors are still too good for me to advise backing the Grizzlies ATS for this game.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 235.5 (-105).

The Under has hit in Golden State’s last 6 road games and is 13-12 for the Warriors this season. For Memphis, the Under hit in its last game. The Under has also hit in each of the last 2 meetings between these teams in Memphis.

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Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies Game 5 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies Game 5 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 3 seed Golden State Warriors (3-1) visit the FedExForum Wednesday to play the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies (1-3) in Game 5 of the Western Conference semifinals at 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State rallied from a dismal first-half offensive performance to beat Memphis 101-98 in Monday’s Game 4. The Warriors scored just 38 first-half points and finished 9 of 37 from behind the arc.

The Grizzlies struggled in the half-court without All-Star PG Ja Morant, who will most likely miss the rest of this series with a knee injury. Memphis guards Dillon Brooks and Desmond Bane scored a combined 20 points on 29.6% shooting (8 of 27).

Warriors at Grizzlies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:16 p.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Warriors -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Grizzlies +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
Against the spread: Warriors -4.5 (-105) | Grizzlies +4.5 (-120)
Over/Under: 218.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Warriors at Grizzlies key injuries

Warriors

SF Andre Iguodala (neck) out
SG Gary Payton II (elbow) out

Grizzlies

PG Ja Morant (knee) out

[tipico]

Warriors at Grizzlies picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 115, Grizzlies 103

Money line

PASS because the Warriors (-175) is a little too expensive for a close-out game on the road vs. a Grizzlies (+140) team that’s shown it can play without their best player.

According to VegasInsider.com, roughly 90% of the action is on Golden State’s ML and it’s typically not profitable to follow such lopsided markets in sports betting.

But I don’t like Memphis’s chances of extending this series because the Warriors are outperforming the Grizzlies in 3 of the “4 factors” and Morant put Memphis on his back in the first 3 games of this series.

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Against the spread

LEAN WARRIORS -4.5 (-105) only because we are getting to the party a little late since Golden State opened as 3.5-point favorites (per VegasInsider.com), but have been steamed up to the current number by the market.

However, the Warriors couldn’t have played any worse in Game 4 and the Grizzlies +4.5 (-120) could only muster 98 points. Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole all shot terribly in Game 4 and that won’t happen again.

Also, Golden State is outrebounding Memphis and the Grizzlies were the top rebounding team during the NBA’s regular season. The Warriors’ shooters will start cashing in on the extra possessions gained through rebounding.

Most importantly, Memphis is scoring 13.7 fewer points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time this postseason with Morant off the floor (according to CleaningTheGlass.com) and he was the best player on the floor through the first 3 games of this series.

LEAN WARRIORS -4.5 (-105) since we are getting the worst of the number.

Over/Under

PASS since my prediction aligns too closely with the market’s projected score.

If anything, I “lean” to the Under 218.5 (-110) because the Under has cashed in 10 of the last 14 Warriors-Grizzlies meetings and Memphis’s offense is greatly diminished with Morant out of the lineup.

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Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies Game 2 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors visit FedExForum Tuesday to take on the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 2 of their Western Conference semifinal. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Warriors won the opener 117-116 Sunday.

PG Ja Morant led the Grizzlies in Game 1, scoring 34 points. PF Jaren Jackson Jr. was also incredible, scoring a season-high 33, including six 3’s to match a season-high.

Despite four-time All-Star PF Draymond Green being ejected in the second quarter, the Warriors still came out on top as SG Jordan Poole scored a team-high 31 points.

The Warriors failed to cover as 1.5-point favorites Sunday, dropping their ATS (against the spread) record as road favorites to 11-14-2. The Grizzlies are 8-3 ATS as home underdogs, the fourth-best covering rate in the league.

Warriors at Grizzlies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:31 a.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Grizzlies +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Against the spread: Warriors -1.5 (-120) | Grizzlies +1.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 227.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Warriors at Grizzlies key injuries

Warriors

F Andre Iguodala (cervical) out
SG Klay Thompson (knee) probable

Grizzlies

C Steven Adams (health and safety protocols) out
SG Desmond Bane (back) questionable
SG Ziaire Williams (knee) questionable

[tipico]

Warriors at Grizzlies picks and predictions

Prediction

Grizzlies 114, Warriors 111

Money line

BET GRIZZLIES (+105).

While there was quite a scene made around Green getting ejected, that may have lit a spark in the Warriors in the second half of Game 1.

While the Warriors averaged the second-most turnovers (14.9 per game) in the NBA this season, their inability to keep the ball should continue to play a factor as they lost the turnover battle 17-14 in Game 1 – Green had 5 turnovers before his ejection.

Poole shooting 60% (12-for-20) likely won’t be repeated, especially against Memphis’ top-6 defense. I also wouldn’t expect to see Grizzlies SF Dillon Brooks struggle as heavily as he did in the opener where he was 3-for-13 from the field.

Look for the Oregon Ducks product to bounce back in Game 2 just as he did in first-round series against the Minnesota Timberwolves. After going 3-for-18 in a Game 5 win against Minnesota, he responded with 23 points in Game 6’s clincher.

Game 1 of this series came down to the wire. Quite a bit when right for the Warriors, especially considering they won the rebounding battle 51-47.

Expect turnovers and rebounds to be a bigger storyline and the Grizzlies to come out on top in Game 2.

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Against the spread

PASS.

I like the Grizzlies +1.5 (-105) to come out on top. However, their plus-money value on the money line is what I’d prefer to play instead of only getting 1.5 points.

Over/Under

LEAN to the UNDER 227.5 (-110).

Nothing really changed between these two teams, although two key players showed up on the injury report. Furthermore, sportsbooks got a peek at what the pace would be like which was frantic. The 117-116 Game 1 final eclipsed the Over 224 line by 9 points.

With both teams top-6 in defensive rating on the season, they should be better at limiting the other as both shot over 43% from the field and 36% from deep.

Odds are Green won’t get ejected again, so he should have a greater impact for the Warriors’ defense. Couple that with likely increased minutes for Warriors SG Gary Payton II, who has been the primary defender on Morant, and both teams should find it more difficult to score.

Lastly, 91% of the cash is on the Over, per pregame.com. The sportsbooks aren’t going to get burned that badly. Combine it all, and the Under seems like a strong play.

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Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies Game 1 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors visit FedExForum Sunday to take on the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals. Tip-off is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Warriors come into this series after beating the Denver Nuggets in 5 games, only losing by 5 points in Game 4. The Warriors were 3-2 against the spread (ATS) in that series and 3-1 when giving a spread under 8.

Golden State was led by two-time MVP G Stephen Curry who averaged 28 points per game, shooting 50% from the field and 40% from deep. The Dubs have covered 8 of their last 11.

Memphis it is coming off a tiring series against the Minnesota Timberwolves. It was 6 games of high-energy performances in which the Grizzlies covered 3 of them.

The Grizzlies were led in the series by G Desmond Bane who averaged 23.5 points per game and shot 49.1% from the field. Memphis is 55-32-1 ATS, the best covering rate in the NBA.

Warriors at Grizzlies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:13 a.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Grizzlies -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors -2.5 (-110) | Grizzlies +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 220.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Warriors at Grizzlies key injuries

Warriors

F Andre Iguodala (cervical) out

Grizzlies

F Steve Adams (health and safety protocols) out

[tipico]

Warriors at Grizzlies picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 114, Grizzlies 107

Money line

PASS.

The Warriors opened at -140 which was a bit too pricey for me although I do expect them to come out on top. Although the line has flipped I’ll pass here and back the spread.

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Against the spread

BET the WARRIORS -2.5 (-110).

While the Grizzlies are young and should be able to quickly bounce back from their Game 6 on Friday night, preparing for the Warriors in such a quick time is difficult.

They’ll also be preparing for a lineup they’ve yet to see this season, the Warriors’ “Fast Five.”

Also, Memphis’ regular-season advantage was on the glass, where it was the best offensive rebounding team in the league. Without Adams, it won’t have that same size dominance on the smaller Warriors.

Considering his absence will take away their top advantage coupled with F Draymond Green‘s ability to limit G Ja Morant‘s drives, I expect the Warriors to tame a lethal Grizzlies attack.

Over/Under

LEAN to the OVER 220.5 (-110).

The Warriors had the second-best defensive rating in the NBA, but much of the total will depend on the pace.

That’s what the Grizzlies bring to the table. The Grizzlies ranked 4th in pace during the regular season and their series with the Minnesota was the fastest-pace first-round matchup.

The extremely high totals forced it to just be 4-2 O/U. The Warriors were 4-1 O/U during their 5-game series. Golden State scored 120 or more in 3 of the 5 games.

I expect similar offensive prowess from the Dubs, and they should be able to do just that with the extra possessions a quicker game will undoubtedly provide.

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Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors (48-27) stop by FedExForum Monday to play the Memphis Grizzlies (52-23) at 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Warriors have lost five of their last six games — 1-5 against the spread (ATS) — with the latest being a 123-115 loss at the Washington Wizards Sunday. This is Golden State’s final outing of a five-game Eastern Conference road swing.

Memphis has won eight of its last nine games (6-3 ATS) including four straight wins over the Houston Rockets Mar. 20 (122-98), Brooklyn Nets Wednesday (132-120), Indiana Pacers Thursday (133-103) and Milwaukee Bucks Saturday (127-102).

The Grizzlies are 2-1 straight up (SU) and ATS versus the Warriors this season and the total is 2-1 Over/Under (O/U) in those games. Memphis also eliminated Golden State in the final game of the Western Conference’s playoff play-in tourney last season.

Warriors at Grizzlies odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:07 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Warriors +500 (bet $100 to win $500) | Grizzlies -750 (bet $750 to win $100)
Against the spread: Warriors +10.5 (-108) | Grizzlies -10.5 (-112)
Over/Under: 223.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Warriors at Grizzlies key injuries

Warriors (not officially submitted)

PG Steph Curry (foot) out
C Draymond Green (rest) questionable
PF Otto Porter (rest) questionable
SG Klay Thompson (rest) questionable

Grizzlies

PF Brandon Clarke (hip) questionable
PF Jarren Jackson Jr. (thigh) questionable
PG Ja Morant (knee) out

[tipico]

Warriors at Grizzlies odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Grizzlies 119, Warriors 106

Money line

PASS.

I think Memphis wins easily but the Grizzlies (-750) are a no-go at this price. There’s no situation during the NBA regular season where a bettor should be laying -750, I don’t care how lopsided the matchup is.

However, Memphis should win this one fairly easily. The Grizzlies are 12-3 SU versus teams in the second of a back-to-back with the best adjusted net rating (plus-14.4), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Golden State also needs both Curry and Green in the lineup to click on all cylinders. The Warriors are just 19-16 SU with Green out of the lineup and Curry has a plus-14.7 adjusted on/off net rating, which ranks in the 98th percentile for point guards, per CTG.

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Against the spread

BET the GRIZZLIES -10.5 (-112) for 1 unit because this is a good spot for them and Memphis has a massive strength-on-weakness edge over the Warriors in the ball security department.

The Grizzlies are 15-8 ATS when playing with a rest advantage (plus-5.5 ATS margin) and 7-3 ATS as 10-point or greater favorites. Plus Memphis has the second-best ATS margin at plus-7.0 when playing teams on zero rest days, per CTG.

The Grizzlies also have the fourth-best defensive turnover rate (TOV%), per CTG, and score the fourth-most points off of turnovers per game. Whereas the Warriors have the second-worst offensive TOV%.

The GRIZZLIES -10.5 (-112) is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

PASS because I prefer Memphis’s spread way more than the total and the situational trends don’t provide much of a clue.

For what it’s worth, I “lean” Over 223.5 (-108) because the Grizzlies should get a ton of easy buckets by forcing turnovers and Memphis is scoring 125.7 points per game over the past two weeks.

However, I don’t want to put on money on it since the absence of Curry significantly hurts Golden State’s offense and the Under has cashed in seven of the last nine Warriors-Grizzlies meetings.

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Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors (30-9) travel to FedExForum Tuesday for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off with the Memphis Grizzlies (28-14). Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Golden State broke out of a two-game slump by waxing the Cleveland Cavaliers 96-82 as a 6.5-point home favorite in G Klay Thompson‘s return to action following multiple leg injuries over the past two seasons.

The Warriors are 3-3 straight-up (SU), 2-4 ATS and 2-4 O/U in the last 14 days with the 15th-ranked adjusted net rating at plus-0.9 points per 100 possessions, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Memphis is riding a nine-game win streak with the latest being a 127-119 victory against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 3-point road underdog.

The Grizzlies have covered the spread in six of their seven wins over the last two weeks and have the fourth-best adjusted net rating at plus-13.1 points per 100 possessions, per CTG.

These teams are split 1-1 SU and ATS through their first two regular-season meetings. Memphis eliminated Golden State last season in the inaugural postseason play-in tourney with a 117-112 overtime win.

Warriors at Grizzlies odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:40 p.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Grizzlies +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
Against the spread (ATS): Warriors -1.5 (-120) | Grizzlies +1.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 220.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Warriors at Grizzlies key injuries

Warriors

PF Draymond Green (shoulder) out
SG Gary Payton II (ankle) questionable
F Otto Porter Jr. (shoulder) questionable

Grizzlies

C Steven Adams (health and safety protocols) questionable
SG Dillon Brooks (ankle) out

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Warriors at Grizzlies odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Grizzlies 114, Warriors 110

Money line

BET the GRIZZLIES (+105) for 1 unit and/or SPRINKLE on their money line and wager more on Memphis’s spread if it gets to 2.5 points or higher.

However, the Grizzlies have been playing some of the best basketball in the Association since the middle of December and has a strength-on-weakness edge with ball security.

Golden State has the second-worst offensive turnover rate and is 19th in points off of turnovers allowed per game.

On the other hand, Memphis has the sixth-best defensive turnover rate and scores the fifth-most points off of turnovers per game.

The Warriors could also be without their third- (Payton II), fourth (Draymond), and fifth-best players (Porter) by adjusted on/off net rating (per CTG) for this game.

BET the GRIZZLIES (+105).

Against the spread

PASS unless Memphis’s spread gets to +2.5 or higher in which case I’d go light on the Grizzlies outright and hit the Grizzlies plus the points harder.

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 220.5 (-112) for a small wager, if at all, because there’s been a sharp line move towards the Over. This meeting’s total opened at 218.5 and has been steamed up 2 points.

That line movement could be solely based on the return of Klay, which makes sense, but is a little too obvious. Typically, in sports betting, the obvious plays aren’t very profitable.

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Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The Golden State Warriors (22-20) play the Memphis Grizzlies (18-20) Saturday at FedExForum on the heels of Golden State’s 116-103 head-to-head win Friday. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Warriors-Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Golden State needed someone to step up last night against the Grizzlies in the wake of PG Steph Curry’s absence and SF Andrew Wiggins answered the call.

Wiggins erupted for a season-high 40 points on 58.3% shooting (54.5% from 3-point range) with 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 steals.

On the other side of the floor, Memphis was careless with the ball, losing the turnover battle 20-13, No Grizzlies player scored more than 14 points.

The Warriors notched their third win in four games (3-1 against the spread) and their only losses over their last 10 games have been to Pacific Division opponents, all of which are in the top-5 of the Western Conference standings.

Memphis has lost four of its previous five games (2-3 ATS) while having the fourth-worst offensive rating and fourth-worst effective field-goal percentage over that span.

Warriors at Grizzlies: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.

Money line: Warriors +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Grizzlies -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Warriors +5.5 (-110) | Grizzlies -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 218.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Warriors at Grizzlies: Key injuries

Warriors

PG Steph Curry (tailbone) doubtful
PF Eric Paschall (health and safety protocols) out
C James Wiseman (health and safety protocols) out

Grizzlies

PF Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) out

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Warriors at Grizzlies: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Grizzlies 112, Warriors 103

Money line (ML)

PASS since I think Memphis will bounce back to win this game, especially if Curry is out again, but there’s no way I’d lay -225 with the Grizzlies after how they performed against the Warriors Friday.

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Against the spread (ATS)

Slight lean on GRIZZLIES -5.5 (-110) because aside from Wiggins, SGs Jordan Poole and Damion Lee who combined for 86 points last night, no other Warriors player shot well.

Only two other Warriors players hit a 3-pointer Friday and one of them was starting C Kevon Looney who has made only 10 3-pointers in his six-year career.

We’ve seen a number of teams this season win the second half of a two-game miniseries in what’s been called the recent revenge spot and Memphis should ratchet up the defensive intensity for this meeting.

Since they aren’t a good shooting team, I only lean GRIZZLIES -5.5 (-110) for a half-unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

Both teams are bottom-10 offensive-rated teams, the Grizzlies have the 25th-highest FTA/FG rate and the Warriors are 15th in FTA/FG rate, but that’s with Curry in the lineup.

According to CleaningTheGlass.com, Golden State’s free-throw rate increases by more than six percentage points when Curry is on the floor compared to off, which is in the 96th percentile for point guard on-off ratings.

GIMME UNDER 218.5 (-110) for 1.25 units as the best play in Warriors-Grizzlies.

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Also see:

Wiseman and Paschall to miss seven days for contact tracing (Warriors Wire)

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