Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors (48-27) stop by FedExForum Monday to play the Memphis Grizzlies (52-23) at 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Warriors vs. Grizzlies odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

The Warriors have lost five of their last six games — 1-5 against the spread (ATS) — with the latest being a 123-115 loss at the Washington Wizards Sunday. This is Golden State’s final outing of a five-game Eastern Conference road swing.

Memphis has won eight of its last nine games (6-3 ATS) including four straight wins over the Houston Rockets Mar. 20 (122-98), Brooklyn Nets Wednesday (132-120), Indiana Pacers Thursday (133-103) and Milwaukee Bucks Saturday (127-102).

The Grizzlies are 2-1 straight up (SU) and ATS versus the Warriors this season and the total is 2-1 Over/Under (O/U) in those games. Memphis also eliminated Golden State in the final game of the Western Conference’s playoff play-in tourney last season.

Warriors at Grizzlies odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:07 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Warriors +500 (bet $100 to win $500) | Grizzlies -750 (bet $750 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Warriors +10.5 (-108) | Grizzlies -10.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under: 223.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Warriors at Grizzlies key injuries

Warriors (not officially submitted)

  • PG Steph Curry (foot) out
  • Draymond Green (rest) questionable
  • PF Otto Porter (rest) questionable
  • SG Klay Thompson (rest) questionable

Grizzlies

  • PF Brandon Clarke (hip) questionable
  • PF Jarren Jackson Jr. (thigh) questionable
  • PG Ja Morant (knee) out

[tipico]

Warriors at Grizzlies odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Grizzlies 119, Warriors 106

Money line

PASS.

I think Memphis wins easily but the Grizzlies (-750) are a no-go at this price. There’s no situation during the NBA regular season where a bettor should be laying -750, I don’t care how lopsided the matchup is.

However, Memphis should win this one fairly easily. The Grizzlies are 12-3 SU versus teams in the second of a back-to-back with the best adjusted net rating (plus-14.4), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Golden State also needs both Curry and Green in the lineup to click on all cylinders. The Warriors are just 19-16 SU with Green out of the lineup and Curry has a plus-14.7 adjusted on/off net rating, which ranks in the 98th percentile for point guards, per CTG.

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Against the spread

BET the GRIZZLIES -10.5 (-112) for 1 unit because this is a good spot for them and Memphis has a massive strength-on-weakness edge over the Warriors in the ball security department.

The Grizzlies are 15-8 ATS when playing with a rest advantage (plus-5.5 ATS margin) and 7-3 ATS as 10-point or greater favorites. Plus Memphis has the second-best ATS margin at plus-7.0 when playing teams on zero rest days, per CTG.

The Grizzlies also have the fourth-best defensive turnover rate (TOV%), per CTG, and score the fourth-most points off of turnovers per game. Whereas the Warriors have the second-worst offensive TOV%.

The GRIZZLIES -10.5 (-112) is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

PASS because I prefer Memphis’s spread way more than the total and the situational trends don’t provide much of a clue.

For what it’s worth, I “lean” Over 223.5 (-108) because the Grizzlies should get a ton of easy buckets by forcing turnovers and Memphis is scoring 125.7 points per game over the past two weeks.

However, I don’t want to put on money on it since the absence of Curry significantly hurts Golden State’s offense and the Under has cashed in seven of the last nine Warriors-Grizzlies meetings.

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