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The Minnesota Vikings (7-1) ride a 6-game winning streak as they go on the road to face the Buffalo Bills (6-2) at 1 p.m. Sunday at Highmark Stadium (FOX). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Vikings vs. Bills odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Bills could be without QB Josh Allen. The line dropped from the Bills favored by 9.5 points down to 3.5 points in the span of 1 hour Wednesday, but their odds have since become shorter.
If Allen can’t go, backup Case Keenum will face his former team. Keenum’s career highlight was the playoff Minneapolis Miracle win over New Orleans in January 2018. The miracle was a game-ending touchdown pass to Stefon Diggs when both were Vikings and got to the NFC Championship Game. Now both are Bills.
This is the 1st time Diggs has played Minnesota since being traded to Buffalo. The Vikings used the pick traded from the Bills to draft Justin Jefferson – a trade that has worked out immensely for both teams. Look for Diggs and Jefferson to be the focus of both offenses in this game of revenge and star talent.
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Vikings at Bills odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 4:50 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Vikings +235 (bet $100 to win $235) | Bills -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Vikings +6.5 (-114) | Bills -6.5 (-106)
- Over/Under (O/U): 44.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Vikings at Bills key injuries
Vikings
- CB Cameron Dantzler (ankle) out
- DT Dalvin Tomlinson (calf) out
Bills
- QB Josh Allen (elbow) questionable
- LB Tremaine Edmunds (groin/heel) questionable
- CB Kaiir Elam (ankle) doubtful
- S Jordan Poyer (elbow) out
- DE Greg Rousseau (ankle) out
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Vikings at Bills picks and predictions
Prediction
Bills 31, Vikings 20
Moneyline
PASS
If I was going to make a bet on this, I would place a small wager on the Vikings getting almost 3:2 on the investment. Yet, given the unique circumstances noted above for Allen to miss his first game as a starter since 2018, it’s still not enough to convince me to make a bet on the underdog here.
Against the spread
TAKE THE BILLS -6.5 (-110)
My initial projection on this game was 38-17 Bills before the news because Minnesota always struggles with scrambling quarterbacks.
While the Bills have several key injuries beyond Allen (3 defensive starters and their 1st-round draft pick of 2022), Buffalo has built itself to be a Super Bowl contender by building depth through the draft and free agency.
Not having Allen would significantly alter my projection but not enough to jump off the bandwagon completely.
Over/Under
TAKE THE OVER 44.5 (-108)
This is where defensive injuries for both teams are going to impact this line. The Bills will be without their best pass rusher, an All-Pro safety and their middle linebacker is a question mark. Meanwhile, the Vikings will be without their best run-stuffer and a starting cornerback.
A storyline heading into this one will be that both teams benefited from the trade that sent Diggs to Buffalo, and I believe both Diggs and Jefferson are going to have big days by force of playcalling and design.
It may take until deep into the 4th quarter to hit the Over, but both teams are capable of scoring 27 points, which doesn’t leave a lot for the loser to have to accomplish to surpass this point.
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