Tag: Value

Cowboys become first sports franchise ever to reach $10 billion valuation

From @ToddBrock24f7: The numbers from Forbes also show that the Cowboys have the highest operating income, and- by far- the most valuable brand in the NFL.

The Cowboys, though not not yet mathematically eliminated from playoff contention this season, will almost certainly extend their championship drought to a 29th year.

Nevertheless, they are continuing their dynasty as the most valuable sports franchise on the planet… by far.

Forbes has released its annual list of the NFL’s most valuable teams, and the Cowboys have come out on top for the ninth straight year, with a hefty margin separating them from everyone else.

The team that Jerry Jones bought in 1989 for a then-record $140 million now has a valuation of $10.1 billion. That figure is up 12% from last year and makes the club the first franchise- in any sport- to hit a staggering eleven digits.

Dallas was also the first team to reach the $5 billion threshold (in 2018) and the $6 billion mark, in 2021. To further illustrate how exponentially the NFL’s coffers have exploded in recent years, consider that even the Cincinnati Bengals, the league’s least valuable franchise for 2024, have now reached $4 billion, a number that was an unthinkable record when the Cowboys hit it… only nine years ago.

The Cowboys’ current $10.1 billion valuation is $2.5 billion ahead of the second-ranked team, the Los Angeles Rams, and more than double that of 11 other NFL teams.

Worth noting, though: that latter group of clubs includes Baltimore, Buffalo, and Detroit, teams that all have a much better chance of winning a ring before the 5-8 Cowboys… as well as the Kansas City Chiefs, who seek to win an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl this season.

One has to wonder if Jones would trade a sliver of his valuation for some of the success those teams are enjoying this year. (The most jaded fans assume he would not.)

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A further breakdown of the Cowboys’ $10.1 billion valuation shows that nearly $800 million in 2023 came from local revenue, meaning ticket sales, sponsorships, merchandise, and other streams specific to the Cowboys. No other NFL team even topped $400 million.

Almost four billion dollars of the $10.1 billion total is the Cowboys’ portion attributable to revenue shared among the league’s 32 teams. The size of Dallas’s market counts for another $2.27 billion. AT&T Stadium as a venue counts for $1.99 billion of value, and the Dallas Cowboys brand itself contributes $1.91 billion.

That last number is especially impressive. No other NFL team comes even close to Dallas’s $1.91 billion; the New England Patriots have the league’s second-most valuable “brand,” at $694 million, but that’s still more than 2.5 times less than the Cowboys’.

The Cowboys’ operating income is also tops in the league, pegged at $564 million; the Rams spend essentially half that, at $286 million.

But they’re still turning an absurd profit. When Forbes first ranked the NFL’s teams by valuation in 1998, Dallas led the pack at $413 million. This year’s $10.1 billion represents a mind-boggling 2,346% increase. Try getting that kind of ROI on absolutely anything else. It’s no wonder private equity firms are scrambling to own even the tiniest crumbs of ownership now being offered by some clubs.

But all of those astronomical dollar figures pale in comparison to the number that’s supposed to mean the most in professional football: five. That’s how many Super Bowl trophies stand in the lobby of the Cowboys’ team headquarters. That total hasn’t changed since 1996.

Until it does, no matter how many digits and commas there are in this year’s bottom line, the word valuation has very little value whatsoever to Cowboys fans, who continue to wait for their team to make the cover of something other than a money magazine.

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How valuable is QB Justin Fields on the trade market?

With Russell Wilson potentially the starting QB job for weeks to come, what would teams theoretically give up in a trade for Justin Fields?

Quarterbacks are extremely hard to come by in today’s game. Some franchises, like the Browns and Panthers, spend years rebuilding in hopes of finding the future of their organization. After Russell Wilson’s dominant Week 7 victory over the New York Jets, Justin Fields may be more valuable as a trade asset than as a backup QB.

Several teams are trying to compete without a reliable signal-caller in 2024, and if their were teams interested in acquiring Fields, what would a trade look like?

The Steelers gave up a conditional sixth-rounder to acquire Fields, but he has performed well so far this season, and the team could demand a conditional second- or third-round pick in 2024.

As the team is in ‘win-now mode’, if Pittsburgh traded Fields away, it’s more likely they would do so to acquire a talented receiver, such as DeAndre Hopkins, Jerry Jeudy, Diontae Johnson, or Jakobi Meyers.

Could Pittsburgh trade away their potential future signal-caller in hopes of winning a Super Bowl this season? Only time will tell as the November 5th trade deadline draws nearer.

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Should Fields or Wilson be traded by November 5th deadline?

Could Justin Fields or Russell Wilson become draft capital before the trade deadline? The team could use their value to acquire an elite WR.

Week 7 could decide whether Russell Wilson or Justin Fields stays on the roster and which one becomes a trade casualty by the November 5th deadline. Pittsburgh has two quality starting quarterbacks on the roster, and the team would be foolish to keep both beyond the trade deadline in a few weeks.

Third-string QB Kyle Allen is a quality backup to either Fields or Wilson, and this Steelers team is built to win now. With this in mind, why not trade one of them for help in an area of concern for the Steelers, such as the offensive line or wide receiver?

There are a plethora of elite receivers rumored to be available at the deadline, and Omar Khan’s ingenious preparation for the Steelers’ future will most likely force one of the two QBs to take their opportunities elsewhere.

Is Pittsburgh using Wilson’s Week 7 start as an opportunity to heighten his potential trade value? Or is the team attempting to protect the trade value of Fields? Only time will tell, but expect Pittsburgh to use the conclusion of the QB competition to position themselves as ‘buyers’ at the deadline.

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What is Marshon Lattimore’s trade value if Saints make a move?

A Marshon Lattimore trade has been frequently discussed, but how much could the Saints get in return? Bleacher Report says at least a third-round pick:

They’re back at it again. Bleacher Report’s Alex Ballentine took a look at the New Orleans Saints potentially dealing Marshon Lattimore. It’s been discussed frequently, but Ballentine does look at it from a different angle.

Ballentine listed players who should be traded before roster cuts. It’s common to see players get dealt around this time of the year. Ballentine looked at why the Saints should trade Lattimore, and how much they could get back in return.

It’s important the Saints get good value in return for one of their best playmakers. Ballentine argued they should trade their star cornerback to prioritize the future, recouping a draft pick or two and opening up salary cap dollars to be spent elsewhere. That includes paying Paulson Adebo. Solid premise but let’s get to the main event, compensation. Ballentine said the Saints should look for a “at least a third round pick.”

It’s hard to see Lattimore even commanding a third-round pick, let alone “at least” that much. Yes he’s extremely talented and would be worthy of a third and then some if he were healthy. The thing is he hasn’t been for the past two years. Even right now, Lattimore is working his way back from a hip flexor injury.

So what is Lattimore’s trade value? That is a difficult one to really settle in on. For as talented as he is, he’s only played 17 games in two years, the equivalent of a single season. You’re not getting full value on a player with those concerns.

If the Saints trade Lattimore they should look for a trade package with a  conditional pick attached. If you could get a fourth-round pick that could turn into a third-round selection if he hits a threshold for games played or percentage of snaps. But as we’ve said before, if that’s the best they can get then they’re better off not trading him at all. The situation isn’t so toxic that anyone’s hand should be forced. Hopefully Lattimore heals up, plays well, and these questions get answered another time.

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How did Packers do in draft value relative to 2024 consensus board?

How did the Packers in terms of finding “value” from the consensus big board in the 2024 NFL draft?

The Green Bay Packers selected 11 players in the 2024 NFL draft. How do Brian Gutekunst and the Packers so in terms of value this year? It’s a tough question to answer. Maybe impossible.

Value is an important part of the draft process. An understanding of the board is vital to judging how teams went about maximizing value during the draft.

However, establishing true “value” is incredibly difficult. Thirty-two teams each have a different draft board, and there is no consensus big board for all teams. Teams scout differently and have different schemes, coaching staffs and needs.

The best we can do is base value on the consensus of the information available. The “wisdom of the crowd” can help.

Arif Hasan of Wide Left Football creates the go-to consensus board, which ranks the top 300 players in the draft class based on 101 different big boards from draft analysts. As Hasan says, “the consensus of these experts does a better predictive job than individual experts.”

Here are the Packers’ picks in the 2024 draft, their consensus rank, their pick number and the difference between the two. This is how we’ll establish value.

Player Consensus rank Pick number Difference
Jordan Morgan 35 25 -10
Edgerrin Cooper 37 45 +8
Javon Bullard 63 58 -5
Marshawn Lloyd 94 88 +6
Ty’Ron Hopper 153 91 -62
Evan Williams 197 111 -86
Jacob Monk 272 163 -109
Kitan Oladapo 144 169 +25
Travis Glover 267 202 -65
Michael Pratt 127 245 +118
Kalen King 156 255 +99
Totals -81

The Packers stuck to the consensus board during their first four picks (-1 in total value) and then went down a much different path to end Day 2 and throughout Day 3. The variance from the consensus board was wild.

Ty’Ron Hopper, Evan Williams, Jacob Monk and Travis Glover were all significant reaches by two rounds or more on the consensus board. The Packers even traded up for Williams and Monk.

But there was also great value to end Day 3. Kitan Oladapo, Michael Pratt and Kalen King all rank among the Packers’ best value picks in terms of the consensus board since 2022.

The Packers were surprised that both Pratt and King were still available in the seventh round, and both were big “steals” by consensus rank. It’s worth noting that recent “steals” from the consensus board include Rasheed Walker, Kingsley Enagbare, Karl Brooks, Carrington Valentine and Anthony Johnson Jr., so this does appear to have some predictive value for the Packers, especially on Day 3.

Remember this quote from Packers director of football ops Milt Hendrickson, who learned it from longtime Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome: “A pick is just a pick until it becomes a player. From that standpoint, if you love the player, you find the way to get him.”

The Packers went into the 2024 draft with five top 100 picks but ended up getting only four players in the top 100 of the consensus big board.

However, the class stacks up well when sorted by consensus rank:

Jordan Morgan: 35
Edgerrin Cooper: 37
Javon Bullard: 63
MarShawn Lloyd: 94
Michael Pratt: 127
Kitan Oladapo: 144
Ty’Ron Hopper: 153
Kalen King: 156
Evan Williams: 197
Travis Glover: 267
Jacob Monk: 272

Recent years

How did Packers do in draft value relative to 2023 consensus board?

How did Packers do in draft value relative to 2022 consensus board?

Saints have 18th-most draft capital in NFL this year

Will the Saints be big players in the 2024 NFL draft? Most of their picks are in the later rounds, which hurts their value, but don’t rule out Mickey Loomis:

Are the New Orleans Saints going to be big players in the 2024 NFL draft? You never know with Mickey Loomis, but other teams are better positioned to make a move early on. New Orleans owns a lot of draft picks but most of them are distributed in the later rounds, where they’re less valuable.

In addition to a first-round pick, the Saints have 8 other selections on Days 2 and 3. Five of those are compensatory selections, which were just handed out on Friday. Tankathon ranked every team based on its draft capital this year, applying point values to each selection, and the Saints have the 18th-most among the NFL’s 32 teams.

Their nine picks are worth 761.8 points, slightly ahead of the 19th-ranked Tennessee Titans (758.2). The Arizona Cardinals have the most capital in the NFL (1,468.9 points), followed by the Washington Commanders (1,236.6) and Chicago Bears (1,089.5). The Cleveland Browns have by far the least amount of capital with only five picks worth 377.8 points.

The Saints could use draft capital this year to move around the draft with some wheeling and dealing, but they also have a tendency to dip into future assets as well. Don’t expect Loomis to stand pat and let the board come to him on draft day, especially when he has a history of using compensatory picks as bartering chips to trade for higher picks.

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Cowboys roster ranks 3rd in value; Lamb, Bland make ‘best value’ team

From @ToddBrock24f7: CeeDee Lamb and DaRon Bland were the top values at their respective positions in 2023, while 8 other Cowboys made the top 10 at theirs.

The world-weary cynics within Cowboys Nation firmly believe that, at least to the Jones family, finishing the season strong in dollars and cents is way more important than wins and losses.

On the field, Dallas didn’t make it out of the wild-card round. But financially, the front office finished almost at the top of the league when it comes to the overall value they got out of their players this season.

Spotrac has determined their 2023 Team Value Rankings using scores calculated for each player on the league’s rosters. Individually, a player’s cumulative production is factored against his average annual salary, and the resulting score (out of 100) offers a look at how much bang a player provides for his buck.

Do that for everybody, and it becomes clear which teams make their money work the hardest come gametime.

San Francisco led the NFL with a “True Value Score” (TVS) of 99.56, while Baltimore came in second with 95.11. The Cowboys finished in third place with 91.38. No other team scored in the 90s. (Within the NFC East, Philadelphia finished 16th with 52.48, the Giants were 28th at 16.44, and Washington ended 31st with 6.11.)

Using players’ individual scores, Spotrac also assembled their “Best Value” roster, spotlighting the player with the highest TVS at each position. The Dallas was one of four teams to put two players in the hypothetical starting lineup; eight other Cowboys made the top 10 at their positions.

Here’s a look at who was named the absolute best value at their spot, as well as which players on the team still gave great production at a nice price.

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How did Packers do in draft value relative to 2023 consensus board?

Using the wisdom of the crowd, we assess how the Packers did in the 2023 draft relative to the consensus big board.

How did the Green Bay Packers do in terms of value during the 2023 NFL draft? This is a tough question to answer. Maybe impossible.

Value is an important part of the draft process. An understanding of the board is vital to judging how teams went about maximizing value during the draft.

However, establishing true “value” is incredibly difficult. Thirty-two teams have thirty-two different draft boards, and there is no consensus big board for all teams. Teams scout differently and have different schemes, coaching staffs and needs.

The best we can do is base value on the consensus of the information available.

Arif Hasan of PFN creates the go-to consensus board, which ranks the top 300 players in the draft class based on more than 70 different big boards from draft analysts. As Hasan says, “the consensus of these experts does a better predictive job than individual experts.” Wisdom of the crowd. The collective is better than the opinion of one.

Here are the Packers’ picks in the 2023 draft, their consensus rank, their pick number and the difference between the two. This is how we’ll establish value. For players not on the big board, difference was determined based on 259 total picks made.

Player Consensus rank Pick number Difference
Lukas Van Ness 17 13 -4
Luke Musgrave 47 42 -5
Jayden Reed 86 50 -36
Tucker Kraft 61 78 +17
Colby Wooden 123 116 -7
Sean Clifford N/A 149 -110
Dontayvion Wicks 171 159 -12
Karl Brooks 113 179 +66
Anders Carlson N/A 207 -52
Carrington Valentine 205 232 +27
Lew Nichols III N/A 235 -24
Anthony Johnson Jr. 218 242 +24
Grant DuBose 236 256 +20
Total -96

This exercise is complicated by the fact that the Packers took three players (Clifford, Carlson and Nichols) who weren’t on the top 300 big board. All three will have to be considered big “reaches” relative to the big board, but we don’t know how big generally. In terms of the consensus, Clifford, Carlson and Nichols were all expected to be undrafted free agents. The three picks lost the Packers 186 value points.

The good news: the Packers other 10 picks gained 90 points of value overall.

The team’s first five picks all stayed fairly close to the big board when assessing the group overall (-35). Then things got squirrely. Clifford was a reach (Packers explain here), and taking a kicker usually means straying far from the big board. Nichols wasn’t on the big board but can hardly be considered a reach.

Although Reed was a moderate reach at No. 50, the Packers did trade back twice before selecting him, gaining picks at No. 159 (Wicks) and No. 179 (Brooks). Together, the three picks were actually good for 18 total value points relative to consensus.

Biggest reach: Clifford
Biggest steal: Brooks

Ultimately, the Packers took players in expected ranges until straying for a quarterback and kicker on Day 3. And they got great value on Brooks in the sixth and decent value with at least three picks in the seventh round.

Again, this isn’t a perfect exercise. In most cases, a team just doesn’t want to take a player considerably higher than the consensus, and the Packers did that a few times in this draft, but mostly for a backup quarterback and a specialist.

Overall, the process looked good relative to consensus. In fact, you could swap a few picks around (say, Reed for Kraft, Clifford for Brooks, or Carlson for Johnson) and the value would line up very well with the big board. The Packers didn’t want to lose out on a quarterback and kicker they liked, so they went earlier than expected.

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How NFL draft trade value charts graded the Saints-Bears deal

How NFL draft trade value charts graded the Saints-Bears deal for Old Dominion right tackle Nick Saldiveri:

The New Orleans Saints and Chicago Bears completed a surprise trade in the minutes leading up to the fourth round of the 2023 NFL draft, which helped the Saints vault up the board while the Bears moved down a dozen spots (adding a fifth-round pick for their trouble). New Orleans selected Old Dominion right tackle Nick Saldiveri with their new pick.

So how did the various NFL draft trade value charts floating around grade this move? Legendary coach Jimmy Johnson is credited for first introducing the model that all others are based off of, but these days there are multiple variants to consider. Teams use their own models so there’s some variance from one war room to the next. Let’s see what they made of the Saints-Bears trade:

Since 2011, no GM has lost more draft pick value in trades than Saints’ Mickey Loomis

No NFL general manager has lost more draft pick value in trades than Mickey Loomis, whose always-aggressive approach has cost the Saints from time to time:

Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes he gets you. And when you trade up as often as the New Orleans Saints have under Mickey Loomis, you tend to pay a higher price than you’d like. The latest illustration of this comes from Pro Football Focus analyst Arjun Menon, who created a graph showing the net trade value gained or lost by every active NFL general manager dating back to 2011 (when a new collective bargaining agreement introduced the modern rookie wage scale, dramatically shifting how draft picks are valued).

And no general manager has lost more value for his team than Loomis — who, to be fair, shares a lot of blame with former Saints head coach Sean Payton for the aggressive draft strategy. New Orleans has traded away future picks to move up in the current draft more frequently than many other teams around the league. Look at their history:

  • 2022: Traded a 2023 first-round pick to get another selection in the first round (spent on LT Trevor Penning)
  • 2020: Traded a 2021 third-round pick to move up for LB Zack Baun in the third round
  • 2020: Traded a 2021 sixth-round pick to land TE Tommy Stevens in the seventh round
  • 2019: Traded a 2020 second-round pick to move up for C Erik McCoy in the second round
  • 2018: Traded a 2019 first-round pick to move up for DE Marcus Davenport in the first round
  • 2017: Traded a 2018 second-round pick to land RB Alvin Kamara in the third round
  • 2016: Traded a 2017 fifth-round pick to move up for DT David Onyemata in the fourth round
  • 2015: Traded a 2016 sixth-round pick to move up for CB Damian Swann in the fifth round
  • 2011: Traded a 2012 first-round pick to land RB Mark Ingram in the first round

If you’re keeping track, that’s a total of six picks in the first, second, and third rounds traded to move up and get Ingram, Kamara, Davenport, McCoy, Baun and Penning. And we aren’t even counting the many trades that only included packaging up late-round picks in the current draft, only future assets. It’s early for Penning, but of that group you could only say it was worth it with certainty for Ingram, Kamara and McCoy.

Why trade up so often? The Saints work with a smaller big board of draft prospects than most other teams, viewing the pre-draft process as a series of disqualifications to limit their options to players who best fit what they’re looking for. Many teams often have 120 to 150 draftable grades on their board. New Orleans usually has 75 to 90. So when a player they value is just outside of reach, they’re comfortable making a move to go get them. At the same time, they don’t see as much value in trading down; Loomis hasn’t moved back in the draft since 2007.

The Saints have a strategy that is tough to beat when it works. But their eagerness to trade up can get them burned, especially when the players they covet don’t meet expectations. Trading up so often has a cost that’s paid in the later rounds, when teams need to get depth players. When the Saints miss on a player like Davenport after trading up, and lose key contributors in free agency, it’s really difficult to field a competitive roster. Hopefully they’ll learn from that and tweak the strategy.

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