Analyzing Saturday’s Utah at USC odds and lines, with college football expert picks, predictions and best bets.
The USC Trojans (3-2, 2-2 in Pac-12) host the Utah Utes (2-2, 1-0) Saturday in the United Airlines Field at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum for a Pac-12 conference game. Kickoff is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Utah vs. USC odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Utah beat the Washington State Cougars 24-13 Sept. 25, but failed to cover as 15-point home favorites.
Before that, the Utes lost back-to-back road games as favorites to non-Power 5 schools in the San Diego State Aztecs and the BYU Cougars. Utah hasn’t covered the spread in any game thus far and is 2-2 Over/Under (O/U).
USC bounced back from an embarrassing 45-27 Week 4 loss to the Oregon State Beavers as 10-point home favorites to thump the Colorado Buffaloes 37-14 as 9.5-point road favorites. The Trojans are 3-2 against the spread (ATS) and O/U this season.
USC has beaten Utah in two straight meetings, three of the last four (2-2 ATS) and the Utes have covered just once in their last five visits to Southern California.
Utah at USC odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 1:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Utah +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | USC -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Utah +2.5 (+100) | USC -2.5 (-120)
- Over/Under (O/U): 52.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)
PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!
Utah at USC odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
USC 30, Utah 24
PASS with a slight “lean” to USC (-150) because I “lean” to the Trojans winning by a field goal or more, and they are probably the right side here. However, this money line is a little out of my price range, and there isn’t much difference between these teams.
So my BET on USC -2.5 (-120) is going against the presumed “sharp” side of the market. For instance, according to Pregame.com, 57% of the cash is on Utah, but 70% of the action is on USC.
And typically it’s wiser to follow the money when it’s going in the opposite direction as the public. Especially in a conference game featuring a sneaky consistent program like Utah and a popular program like USC.
But, this game getting bet below the key number of 3 is huge because, again, there’s not a lot separating these teams.
USC has played a slightly tougher schedule and is better in high-leverage situations (third-down and red zone conversion rates).
While Utah has a higher non-garbage time predicted points added (PPA), yards per play and non-garbage time Havoc rate differentials.
For me, the differentiator is Utah’s 1-4 ATS record at USC over the past five meetings, and the Trojans only needing to win by a field goal. BET 1 unit on USC -2.5 (-120).
Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 52.5 (-112) for a small wager because this is both a “sharp” and “public” play. Utah-USC opened with a 48.5-point total, but one-way action has steamed it up to the current number.
Also, with the Over being more expensive it appears as though the market isn’t done betting the Over. But, that’s why it’s only a “lean” for me. It’s rarely profitable in sports betting to bet alongside the public, and we are getting to the party a little late on the Over.
If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.
Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
College sports coverage from USA TODAY Sports Media Group:
Alabama / Arkansas / Auburn / Colorado / Florida / Georgia / LSU / Michigan / Michigan State / Notre Dame / Ohio State / Oklahoma / Oregon / Penn State / Rutgers / Tennessee / Texas / USC / Wisconsin / College Football News
Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]
