The No. 15 USC Trojans (4-0) hope to clinch a berth in the Pac-12 championship game when they drive over to the Rose Bowl to play the UCLA Bruins (3-2) at 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the USC-UCLA college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The Trojans are ranked No. 15 in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
USC at UCLA: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- Money line: USC -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | UCLA +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
- Against the spread/ATS: USC -3.5 (-110) | UCLA +3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 63.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
USC at UCLA: Three things to know
- Southern California rolled Washington State 38-13 this past Sunday. The Trojans jumped out to a 28-0 first-quarter lead thanks to QB Kedon Slovis, who threw four of his five touchdown passes in the first quarter. USC has covered back-to-back games after they squeaked past their first two opponents and losing ATS in those games.
- UCLA won its second straight after beating Arizona State 25-18 as 3-point road ‘dogs. It was Bruins QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson‘s first game back after missing back-to-back games because of COVID-19 contact tracing protocols. Robinson completed 18 of 24 passes for 192 yards, 1 touchdown and added 49 rushing yards with 1 touchdown.
- Slovis outdueled Robinson in last year’s USC-UCLA meeting. The Trojans won 52-35 with Slovis passing for 515 yards, 5 touchdowns and no interceptions while Robinson threw for 367 yards, 3 scores but 1 interception.
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USC at UCLA: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
UCLA 31, USC 30
Money line (ML)
UCLA’s defense could surprise people in this matchup. USC has been a one-dimensional offense this season, the Trojans only average 3.6 yards per rush and had 5 rushing yards in their last game against a mediocre Washington State rush defense.
The Bruins are allowing just 3.7 yards per rush, and their pass defense has improved by leaps and bounds year over year. Opponents are completing just 58.6% of passes against UCLA (66.4% in 2019) for 229.4 yards per game (310.8 in 2019) and the Bruins are 13th in sack rate.
Also, UCLA is better in high-leverage situations (3rd down and red zone conversion percentages). which is huge because USC-UCLA is projected to be a close one.
I only lean UCLA (+135) for a half-unit because there’s so much more value on the spread.
Against the spread (ATS)
GIMME UCLA +3.5 (-110) for 1.5 units. After losing outright and ATS to an undefeated now-No. 22 Colorado, the Bruins have covered four straight games. Plus we get to fade the market with USC getting 67% of the action according to Pregame.com.
Over/Under (O/U)
UCLA should look to the run at USC and avoid the Trojans’ awesome pass defense. Southern California is 14th in opponent’s yards per pass, ninth in interception rate and 25th in sack rate.
Furthermore, there’s value on the Under here because the public always expects USC and UCLA to go Over. They have a combined O/U record of 2-7 with all of the Trojans games going Under the total. More than 90% of the public is hammering the Over again in this game (Pregame.com).
I get these offenses are good, but this total is too high. BET UNDER 63.5 (-105) for 1 unit.
Also see:
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