Washington State game is a true ‘prove it’ moment for USC football

The upcoming Utah game will receive more national buzz, but the Washington State game is more important for #USC. We explain why.

The USC Trojans are nearly a two-touchdown favorite against the Washington State Cougars this Saturday in the Los Angeles Coliseum, which might suggest to the public that this game shouldn’t be especially close. That is not the right way to think about the game. That line should be several points lower than it currently is.

That point aside, this next statement needs to be emphasized and underlined heading into Week 6: This isn’t just another game on USC’s schedule; it’s arguably the most important game of the whole season.

Wait a minute, you might say, isn’t the Utah game the truly important game of 2022 for the Trojans? We’ll explain why the Washington State game actually means more:

USC-Washington State doesn’t seem to be getting the buzz or urgency it deserves

If you think this game will be easy for USC, think again. That’s not the mentality any Trojan player, coach or fan should adopt heading into a hugely important battle.

Does anyone else have an uneasy feeling about this USC-Washington State game? I know I do.

This game is, in point of fact, a really big deal. Yet, the buzz just doesn’t seem to be building for the game on Saturday at 4:40 p.m. inside the Los Angeles Coliseum. This is the prime-time television slot USC fans want. It’s a marker of significance in the college football world. This is when USC should be playing its most important games of the year.

Why does it feel, then, that USC is being assumed to win and that everyone is already looking forward to Utah on Oct. 15? This is a huge game for USC, and Washington State is a very capable opponent. Let’s dive into an explanation of why this game is so big, and why the public seems to be sleeping on this contest:

Trojans Wire joins the Frankly Speaking Sports College Football Show

We wish to thank @LarryFrankus for having us on his college football show. We discussed a lot of #USC FB topics and previewed the Washington State game.

Trojans Wire has a big fortnight ahead. The next two games for USC football are two of the biggest of the season. We get the party started with this Saturday’s prime-time clash against the Washington State Cougars on Fox. One week later, Fox gets another prime-time USC game when the Trojans make the much-anticipated trip to Salt Lake City for the big battle against the defending Pac-12 champion Utah Utes.

This week, we’re focusedo on Washington State. Trojans Wire joined the Frankly Speaking Show with host Larry Frankus to discuss the state of USC football, the events of the past few weeks, the difference Lincoln Riley has made for the Trojans, and the details of the upcoming Washington State game.

Trojans Wire wishes to thank Larry and the team at Frankly Speaking Sports for inviting us onto his program. Be sure to catch the full Frankly Speaking Sports College Football Show, with analysis of teams and games around the country, not just USC.

Our segment with Larry begins at 27:30 in this video below:

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USC placed behind UCLA in USA TODAY Sports re-rank of FBS teams

UCLA ahead of USC? In one set of rankings this week, that’s true. The Trojans and Bruins both have huge games this coming weekend in L.A.

Although Caleb Williams and No. 6 (USA TODAY Coaches Poll ranking) USC never trailed against Arizona State, the Trojans also couldn’t pull away during a fairly average first half. “Average” is measured by the Trojans’ newly ambitious standards under coach Lincoln Riley.

Williams and the Trojans found their edge in the second half, and they used it to slice straight through the Sun Devils on the way to another big win 42-25 at home.

That result, along with UCLA’s win over Washington, led to a shuffle in some new rankings this week.

USC dropped one spot to No. 10 in the re-ranking of FBS teams done by Paul Myerberg of USA TODAY Sports.

UCLA is No. 9, one spot ahead of the Trojans.

Senior quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson led UCLA (5-0 overall, 2-0 Pac-12) to its first signature win of the season, 40-32 in the Rose Bowl over previously No.15 Washington.

USC has a big chance against Washington State and Utah to impress pollsters and voters in the next few weeks.

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Pac-12 statistical leaders: Total yards per game

Yards can be meaningful. They can also be empty. Driving 75 yards and kicking a chip-shot field goal doesn’t mean much. Let’s see where #USC is in the #Pac12.

Yards per game is a statistic which, much like passing yards, can be meaningful, but it can also be empty. Teams can gobble up yards in garbage time, when trailing by 20 points. That doesn’t mean anything.

Teams can drive 75 yards but then stall in the red zone and kick a 22-yard field goal. If drives aren’t finished, yards lose a large measure of their value.

Of course, yards can reflect territorial and overall dominance. If one team has 450 yards and the other team has 275, chances are the team with 450 will win the vast majority of the time. Over larger spans of time, yardage averages mean progressively more … but after only five weeks of Pac-12 football, this might not be as clear-cut as it seems.

Here are the Pac-12 yardage leaders through Week 5:

Pac-12 football statistical leaders: Defensive efficiency

If offensive efficiency is hard to measure through Week 5 of the #Pac12 season, defensive efficiency is no different. See where #USC stands on the list.

If offensive efficiency might not provide a complete indication of where a football team stands through five weeks of the season, defensive efficiency is not likely to be more accurate through the same span of time.

Does USC, for example, have an efficient defense if it is giving up lots of yards but not that many points? If a team is giving up more points, but it is winning more games because its offense is so good, is that a more efficient defense just because games are being won, or should raw totals and averages be the ultimate measure of how well a defense is performing?

While you ponder those questions, here are the Pac-12’s defensive efficiency leaders through Week 5 of the college football season:

Pac-12 football statistical leaders: Offensive efficiency

Is #USC No. 1 in #Pac12 offensive efficiency ratings through Week 5? Which teams are the Trojans battling for the top spot? Find out here.

As the Pac-12 football season continues, we will collect more and more information which enables us to see which offenses are the most efficient. How efficient an offense is can be elusive, at least in a smaller sample size.

We need more games and data points to understand which offenses are truly making the cut in terms of offensive efficiency. What also matters is that offenses perform when they need to, in crunch-time situations and in close games. Being inefficient when leading by 20 points is not really inefficient, at least not with the same level of consequence as in other situations when the game is closer.

Let’s look at Pac-12 offensive efficiency leaders (and the teams which lag behind the best) after Week 5:

USC football should do just fine in the Big Ten West, thank you very much

Wisconsin isn’t good. Iowa isn’t. Minnesota lost to Purdue. Nebraska is struggling. #USC will have few problems winning the Big Ten West unless something changes.

It’s true that beating Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game will be a challenge and a problem for USC football. Having to go through the Buckeyes will be a difficult component for the Trojans when they do move to the Big Ten.

However: USC will not have much of a problem getting to the Big Ten Championship Game and facing the Buckeyes or the Michigan Wolverines.

We should see a lot of USC-Ohio State or USC-Michigan Big Ten title games once the Trojans move to the Big Ten in 2024. Why can we say this with such confidence and clarity?

Look at the Big Ten West:

Chris Fowler will not call a single USC football game through Nov. 18 (maybe longer)

Fowler doesn’t decide what ESPN does, but the network picked Clemson-Florida State for prime time Oct. 15. USC-Utah is on Fox. Fowler hasn’t called a USC game in 2022.

The arrival of Lincoln Riley in Los Angeles seemed to suggest that USC football would become a destination program for the top announcers and announcing crews in college football. Number one in the sport: Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit of ABC/ESPN.

Chris Fowler is the current voice of college football. He has the call for the national championship game each year. Fowler, the longtime host of ESPN College GameDay who also has been an emcee for the Heisman Trophy ceremony, has taken the baton from Brent Musburger as the main voice of the sport. Musburger took the torch from the late, great Keith Jackson.

When Lincoln Riley went to USC, the smart money said that Fowler would call a few Trojan games in 2022, and the Oct. 15 USC-Utah game was on the list. Guess what?

ESPN picked Clemson-Florida State for Oct. 15. Fox gets USC-Utah.

Let’s explain why Fowler might not call a USC game at all this regular season, and definitely not at any point through Nov. 18:

USC stays at No. 6 in USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

USC remained in place in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll. Clemson and especially Georgia won tough games to deny a Trojan rise in the latest poll.

The USC Trojans are No. 6 in the new USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.

The Trojans defeated Arizona State in Week 5 to maintain their position. They were No. 6 last week. USC watched Clemson, Alabama and Georgia win tough games to stay ahead of the Men of Troy in the poll.

USC’s strength of schedule has been very light through five weeks, an obvious point of discussion. The Trojans know their level of competition will rise the next two weekends. The Men of Troy face Washington State on Oct. 8 and then Utah on Oct. 15.

Let’s see what happened below No. 6 USC in the remaining 19 spots of the poll.

Here is the full poll: