Tag: UFC Paris odds lines picks and predictions best bets

UFC Fight Night 243: William Gomis vs. Joanderson Brito odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 243 odds for William Gomis vs. Joanderson Brito, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round featherweight bout on the main card, William Gomis and Joanderson Brito meet at UFC Fight Night 243 Saturday at Accor Arena in Paris, France. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 243: Gomis vs. Brito odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at noon ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 3 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Records: Gomis (13-2-0) | Brito (17-3-1)

Gomis is a perfect 3-for-3 since arriving at the UFC level. He has a pair of decision victories, and he had a KO/TKO in Round 3 against Yanis Ghemmouri last time out on Sept. 2, 2023.

The Frenchman will be making his 3rd appearance in as many events in his native France. In addition to the win over Ghemmouri, Gomis topped Jarno Errens via unanimous decision in Paris on Sept. 3, 2022.

Brito — nicknamed “Tubarao” — looks to extend his win streak to 6 straight bouts since losing via unanimous decision against Bill Algeo in January 2022. That win streak includes a TKO — doctor’s stoppage against Jack Shore at UFC 301 last time out on May 4. The 29-year-old has 5 straight finishes, including 3 wins in round 1.

The southpaw Gomis has a 1-inch reach advantage, but Brito has a 3.35-to-2.62 lead, while he also has a 60.15% significant strikes accuracy percentage to just 52.63% for the Frenchman. Brito has a 3.11 takedown average, and 76.92% takedown accuracy percentage, although Gomis has a slight 0.71-to-0.62 lead in submission average.

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UFC Fight Night 243: Gomis vs. Brito odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated Friday at 9:11 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Gomis +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Brito -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -135 | Under +100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +100 | No -135)

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UFC Fight Night 243: Gomis vs. Brito picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Brito (-350) will set you back 3½ times the potential return if you want to play him straight up. That’s way too much risk for not enough reward.

While Gomis (+260) is fighting in his native France, it is too risky to bet on him. While he has a slight reach advantage, nearly all other stats go in favor of the Brazilian.

For a better value, look to the 5-way line in “Method of Victory”, taking BRITO BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+100) at even-money for a much better value.

Over/Under (O/U)

Go with NO (-135): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? if you’re a little more conservative. If you’re a bit more adventurous, take a chance on UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+100) at even-money.

You could also get a little fancy, and go with round betting, and take the favorite in a 2-round block. Go with BRITO IN ROUND 2 (+400) and BRITO IN ROUND 3 (+600) for the win. Sure, you’ll lose 1 of the ends, even if he wins in rounds 2-3. But, if he doesn’t get the finish in 1 of the final 2 rounds, you’ll still be well ahead, too.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 243: Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 243 odds for Renato Moicano vs. Benoit Saint Denis, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round lightweight bout in the main event, Renato Moicano and Benoit Saint Denis meet at UFC Fight Night 243 Saturday at Accor Arena in Paris, France. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 243: Moicano vs. Saint Denis odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at noon ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 3 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Records: Moicano (19-5-1) | Saint Denis (13-2-0)

Moicano arrives in Paris looking for a 4-bout win streak, which would be a career best since arriving at the UFC level. He picked up a 2nd-round KO/TKO against Jalin Turner last time out at UFC 300 in April 2024. Prior to that, he had a unanimous-decision win over Drew Dober in February 2024, and he submitted Brad Riddell in Round 1 at UFC 281 back in 2022, showing his versatility.

The Brazilian fighter doesn’t tend to get the judges involved very often, as he has had just 2 decisions in the past 11 bouts, going 1-1 in those outings.

Saint Denis is looking to bounce back after a 2nd-round KO/TKO loss to Dustin Poirier at UFC 299 last time out in early March 2024. He has had 6 consecutive finishes, going 3-1 via KO/TKO in the span, while posting 2 submission wins since a unanimous-decision loss to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos at UFC 267 in his company debut on Oct. 30, 2021.

Saint Denis is 7 years younger, and he is fighting in his native France, so the southpaw has that going for him. He also holds a 1-inch reach advantage, and he leads 5.70-to-4.38 in significant strikes landed per minute. Saint Denis has a 62.71% significant strikes accuracy

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UFC Fight Night 243: Moicano vs. Saint Denis odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 8:27 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Moicano +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Saint Denis -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +140 | Under -185)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +450 | No -800)

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UFC Fight Night 243: Moicano vs. Saint Denis picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

The favorite Saint Denis (-300) will cost 3 times the potential return, and that’s just a little too expensive straight up on the 2-way line.

While Moicano (+240) is getting a little long in the tooth, at least in terms of UFC age, he is still a wily veteran, and quite dangerous.

Let’s get a little more specific instead. Taking SAINT DENIS BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-210) on the 5-way line is still a little too expensive, but that’s your best bet, especially as part of a multi-leg parlay in conjunction with other bouts.

Over/Under (O/U)

There is no reason to consider No (-800): Will the fight go the distance? as it will set you back 8 times your potential return.

However, OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (+140) at plus-money is a good play. Saint Denis is expected to get the victory, but Moicano will make him work for it in his native Paris. Don’t expect the veteran to go quietly into the night.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 243: Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 243 odds between Nassourdine Imavov vs. Brendan Allen, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round middleweight bout on the main card, Nassourdine Imavov and Brendan Allen meet at UFC Fight Night 243 Saturday at Accor Arena in Paris, France. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 243: Imavov vs. Allen odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at noon ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 3 p.m. ET, also on ESPN+.

Records: Imavov (14-4-0) | Allen (24-5-0)

Imavov has picked up 2 straight wins since a no-contest against Chris Curtis at UFC 289. The victories are impressive, too, coming by majority decision against Roman Dolidze and via KO/TKO in round 4 against Jared Cannonier, both in main events.

He is 5-1-1 in the past 7 bouts, with his lone setback coming by way of unanimous decision against Sean Strickland in another main event in Jan. 2023.

Allen has racked up 7 straight fights since a KO/TKO loss to Curtis, including a split-decision victory in a revenge match, also against Curtis. Prior to that, Allen had 4 submission victories. In the 7-bout streak, he has 5 wins via submission, and 2 decision wins.

Both fighters have a reach of 75 inches, while Imavov has a slight 4.58-to-3.98 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. The strike accuracy percentage difference is rather negligible, with Allen checking in at 59.29%, and Imavov at 58.88%. Allen is much better on takedown average at 1.74, to 0.98 for Imavov, while the underdog Allen has a 47.22% accuracy on takedowns, to just 36.00% for Imavov.

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UFC Fight Night 243: Imavov vs. Allen odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 7:59 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Imavov -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Allen +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -165 | Under +125)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -120 | No -110)

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UFC Fight Night 243: Imavov vs. Allen picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

While Imavov (-200) is the favorite in his native France, ALLEN (+165) is an attractive play straight up on the 2-way line.

It’s never easy to go into hostile territory and get the victory. Imavov will likely feed off the energy of the crowd. But, Allen has very similar stats to Imavov, and he is much better on takedowns. It’s a coin flip when these fighters get to the mat — as they’re equally strong in the ground game.

Over/Under (O/U)

Roll with NO (-110): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?, as we should get a finish here.

While Imavov has gone the distance in 3 of his past 5 fights, he had 3 KO/TKO wins and a no contest in the past 8 bouts.

For Allen, he had a decision last time out, but prior to that he has 4 straight submission victories. It wouldn’t be surprising to see this fight end before the judges need to figure out a winner. UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+125) is an attractive play at plus-money, too, if you’re a little less conservative.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 226: Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Thiago Moises odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 226 odds between Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Thiago Moises with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round lightweight bout on the main card, Benoit Saint-Denis and Thiago Moises meet at UFC Fight Night 226 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 84 and UFC Paris — at Accor Arena in Paris on Saturday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 226: Saint-Denis vs. Moises odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Saint-Denis (11-1-0) | Moises (17-6-0)

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 12:30 p.m. ET, while the main card starts at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Saint-Denis will have the home crowd behind him, but he more going for him than just noise from the fans. The southpaw has a 2.5-inch reach advantage and a 4.11-to-2.47 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. He also lands 62.70% of those strikes, compared to just 45.34% for his counterpart.

After losing his UFC debut, Saint-Denis, a.k.a. “God of War”, has rattled off 3 straight victories, all via stoppage. That includes a 1st-round victory via submission against Ismael Bonfim last time out on July 1.

If Moises has an advantage, it’s in the ground game, where he had a 41.38% takedown accuracy percentage and a 1.28 submission average. Moises has won his past 2 fights via submission, including a 2nd-round win over Melquizael Costa last time out at UFC 283 in late January.

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UFC Fight Night 226: Saint-Denis vs. Moises odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:47 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Saint-Denis -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Moises +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -105 | Under -115)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +130 | No -175)

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UFC Fight Night 226: Saint-Denis vs. Moises picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

SAINT-DENIS (-165) is a rather moderate favorite, but he is a strong play in front of his fellow French citizens. They’ll be a full throat spurring him on.

BSD rolls in with 3 straight victories, and he has gotten the job done at 1:32 of the 2nd Round or earlier in each win.

Moises will be trying desperately to get Saint-Denis to the mat, but the Frenchman is also pretty strong on the canvas. That mitigates the only slight advantage Moises might have.

Over/Under (O/U)

NO (-175): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a little bit pricey, but this fight is likely to end before the judges are forced to get involved.

Since going the distance in his UFC debut, Saint-Denis has 3 consecutive finishes; Moises has 4 straight stoppages since his last decision back on Feb. 27, 2021.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 226: Manon Fiorot vs. Rose Namajunas odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 226 odds between Manon Fiorot vs. Rose Namajunas with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round women’s flyweight bout on the main card, Manon Fiorot and Rose Namajunas meet at UFC Fight Night 226 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 84 and UFC Paris — at Accor Arena in Paris on Saturday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 226: Fiorot vs. Namajunas odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Fiorot (10-1-0) | Namajunas (12-5-0)

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 12:30 p.m. ET, while the main card starts at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Fiorot takes the walk to the octagon looking to stay perfect at the UFC level. Since her company debut on Jan. 20, 2021, “The Beast” has won 5 straight bouts, including 3 consecutive unanimous-decision victories. The opponents haven’t been slouches, either, as Fiorot has stopped veterans Katlyn Chookagian, Jennifer Maia and Mayra Bueno Silva in the past 3 outings.

Namajunas makes her debut at 125 pounds. The 31-year-old last fought at UFC 274, falling to Carla Esparza via split-decision in May 2022 to lose her women’s strawweight title. In an odd twist, 3 of her past 4 fights have ended with split-decision results, with 2 wins and the loss to Esparza.

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UFC Fight Night 226: Fiorot vs. Namajunas odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:36 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Fiorot -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Namajunas +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -175 | No +130)

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UFC Fight Night 226: Fiorot vs. Namajunas picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Fiorot (-200) will be fighting on her home soil in Paris, and the fans will be behind her. But NAMAJUNAS (+160) is the play in her flyweight debut. The former strawweight champ has the experience, and she’ll tap into that wealth of knowledge to get it done and wow the judges.

In addition to the straight-up play on the 2-way line, look to METHOD OF VICTORY 5-WAY: NAMAJUNAS BY DECISION (+300) for the chance to triple up.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (-175): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a tad on the expensive side but it’s the slam-dunk play here — especially if you want action on the bout and don’t want to declare a winner.

Fiorot has gone the distance in 3 straight unanimous-decision results, and Namajunas has needed the judges in 3 of her previous 4 outings.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 226: Ciryl Gane vs. Serghei Spivac odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 226 odds between Ciryl Gane vs. Serghei Spivac with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round heavyweight bout in the main event, Ciryl Gane and Serghei Spivac meet at UFC Fight Night 226 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 84 and UFC Paris — at Accor Arena in Paris on Saturday. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 226: Gane vs. Spivac odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

Records: Gane (11-2-0) | Spivac (16-3-0)

The prelims can be viewed on ESPN+ at 12:30 p.m. ET, while the main card starts at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Gane is looking to bounce back after losing to Jon “Bones” Jones in a 1st-round submission at UFC 285 in March. The loss marked his 2nd straight failed attempt to reclaim the title, as the Frenchman went the distance in a unanimous-decision loss to Francis Ngannou at UFC 270 in Jan. 2022. That was the only time in his last 4 fights that he’s needed the judges, and he earned a 3rd-round TO/TKO victory over Tai Tuivasa in between the title-shot defeats. “Bon Gamin” is 8-2 since joining the UFC with his only 2 losses coming in the title fights.

Spivac takes the walk with 3 consecutive stoppage wins in tow. He submitted Derrick Lewis in the 1st-round of a fight night main event last time out on Feb. 4, and he recorded a pair of KO/TKO wins over Augusto Sakai (2nd round) and Greg Hardy (1st round) in 2022. He has gone the distance just once in his previous 6 battles in the octagon.

Gane holds a 3-inch reach advantage, and he also has a slight 5.08-to-3.79 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Spivac is slightly more accurate with the strikes, landing 63.78% to 61.93% for Gane. Spivac’s biggest advantage is in the takedown game, posting a 5.05 TD Average, while also posting a 65.85% takedown accuracy percentage and 0.56 submission average.

Watch  this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC Fight Night 226: Gane vs. Spivac odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:28 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Gane -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Spivac +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +130 | Under -165)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +350 | No -550)

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UFC Fight Night 226: Gane vs. Spivac picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Gane (-190) had tons of trouble against Jones and Ngannou on the ground, and that certainly doesn’t bode well for him against SPIVAC (+160). The Moldovan fighter and moderate underdog is worth playing, despite the location of the fight favoring Gane.

Spivac holds a tremendous advantage in the ground game, and Gane just won’t be keen to get to the canvas. If the challenger does take it there, this one could be over quickly.

Over/Under (O/U)

No (-550): Will the fight go the distance? will cost you 5 1/2 times your potential return and that’s an awful play — even though this one is unlikely to include the judges for a decision.

I like METHOD OF VICTORY 7-WAY: SPIVAC BY SUBMISSION (+400) for a chance to multiply your wager by 4 times, and UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-165) is also a sound play.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.

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