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UFC 306: Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 306 odds between Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round featherweight bout on the main card, Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes meet Saturday at UFC 306 – Riyadh Season Noche UFC at the Sphere in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 306: Ortega vs. Lopes odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: Ortega (16-3-0) | Lopes (25-6-0)

These 2 fighters were supposed to square off at UFC 303, but while preparing to move up to lightweight, Ortega couldn’t make the cut and the fight was scrapped after it had already started. Instead, Lopes met Dan Ige and won in an epic bout.

Ortega opened his UFC career with a no contest against Mike de la Torre July 26, 2014. It’s been a roller-coaster ride of a decade, as he ripped off 6 straight wins since that no contest, including a 1st-round KO/TKO of Frankie Edgar at UFC 222.

He lost a title bout to Max Holloway at UFC 231 in a TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage, while also falling to Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 266 in the main event. He was knocked out in the 1st round against Yair Rodriguez in the main event July 2022, but bounced back with a 3rd-round submission win against Rodriguez last time out.

Lopes has picked up 4 consecutive victories since a unanimous-decision loss to Movsar Evloev at UFC 288 in his company debut. He has 3 finishes, including a submission and 2 KO/TKOs, with a unanimous-decision win over Ige at UFC 303.

Lopes enters with a 3.5-inch reach advantage, while Ortega holds a slight 4.07-to-3.24 significant strikes landed per minute lead. Lopes is far more accurate, though, landing 62.54% of those strikes, to just 40.39% for the veteran Ortega. Lopez has a 3.68 submission average, too, so it would behoove Ortega not to go to the mat with this guy.

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UFC 306: Ortega vs. Lopes odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:35 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Ortega +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Lopes -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -125 | Under -105)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +100 | No -135)

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UFC 306: Ortega vs. Lopes picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Lopes (-200) will cost you 2 times your potential return, and that’s just a little too expensive against a wily veteran like Ortega.

If you want action on this fight, roll with LOPES BY TKO/KO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+150) on the 5-way line for a chance to multiply up. If you want to cut out the submission, betting LOPES BY TKO/KO OR DQ (+250) on the 7-way line can help you make 2½ times your initial wager.

Over/Under (O/U)

NO (-135): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a strong play, as we’re looking for a victory by Lopes via knockout. In fact, playing UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-105) is a little cheaper, and it isn’t a bad wager, either.

Ortega has been the distance just twice in his 12 fights at the UFC level, and one of those came in a title bout. For Lopes, he has been the distance just twice in the past 7 fights, so going Under is a good play.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC 306: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 306 odds between Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round women’s flyweight championship bout in the co-main event, Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko meet Saturday at UFC 306 – Riyadh Season Noche UFC at the Sphere in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 306: Grasso vs. Shevchenko odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: Grasso (16-3-1) | Shevchenko (23-4-1)

It’s a trilogy fight. Grasso picked up the women’s flyweight belt at UFC 285 with a 4th-round submission victory in March 2023. The rematch ended up in a draw at Noche UFC last September, so a year later, the 2 fighters are running it back for a 3rd fight.

For Grasso, she is 5-0-1 in the past 6 fights, with 4 of those bouts going the distance, including last time out against Shevchenko in 5 rounds.

As far as Shevchenko is concerned, the Kyrgyzstani southpaw fighter is looking to get her strap back. She topped Joanna Jedrzejczyk at UFC 231 and retained the belt for 7 title defenses before Grasso plucked it from her at UFC 285.

Shevchenko went the distance in that draw, but that was a rarity. Only 3 of her past 7 fights have ended up needing the judges to decide a victor.

Both fighters stand 5-foot-5, and Shevchenko has an ever-so-slight half-inch reach advantage. Grasso has a 4.67-to-3.28 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while Shevchenko is much more accurate on those strikes at 68.65%, while Grasso lands at 55.69%.

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UFC 306: Grasso vs. Shevchenko odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Grasso -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Shevchenko +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -200 | No +150)

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UFC 306: Grasso vs. Shevchenko picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

I’m not one for conspiracy theories. I believe that these fights happen organically and there is nothing fishy about the UFC. However, the reason to pick SHEVCHENKO (+115) to win outright is because both of the previous fights have been so close.

I can see the former champ getting the job done and there actually being a 4th fight in the future to determine, once and for all, who the real champ of the division will be.

In addition, SHEVCHENKO BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+175) for the chance to nearly double up is also a good investment.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes (-200): Will the fight go the distance? is a little too expensive as a standalone bet. Now, if you were to fold this prop into a multi-leg parlay, it isn’t the end of the world.

However, for a straight bet, AVOID.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC 306: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 306 odds between Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round bantamweight championship bout in the co-main event, Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili meet Saturday at UFC 306 – Riyadh Season Noche UFC at the Sphere in Las Vegas. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNews/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: O’Malley (18-1-0) | Dvalishvili (17-4-0)

O’Malley has rolled up 6 victories and a no contest in his past 7 bouts since a stunning 1st-round KO/TKO loss to Marlon Vera at UFC 252. In the past 6 wins, 4 have come via KO/TKO while winning against Petr Yan by way of split-decision at UFC 280 and a unanimous win in a revenge fight against Vera at UFC 299. That was the 1st title defense for “Sugar,” too, after taking the strap from Aljamain Sterling at UFC 292.

Dvalishvili worked his way into title contention with 3 straight unanimous-decision victories, including against Henry Cejudo last time out at UFC 298. He has won 9 of the past 10 fights overall, with 9 of those fights going the distance. The lone exception for a KO/TKO of Marlon Moraes was at UFC 266.

O’Malley stands 5 inches taller than his Georgian counterpart, and he is 3 years younger, too. The switch-stance champ is a punching machine, posting 7.63 significant strikes landed per minute. While we usually see a lot of strikes equal lower accuracy, he has a strong 62.30% significant strikes accuracy percentage.

For Dvalishvili, he has a 68-inch reach, which is 4 inches less than O’Malley’s, so he has his work cut out. He is extremely good at takedowns, and that’s where he can wow the judges if this one goes deep into the night. He has a stunning 6.43 takedown average, although the submission average difference between the 2 fighters is rather negligible.

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UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:50 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): O’Malley -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Dvalishvili +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Over 4.5 Rounds: (Over -130 | Under +100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -115 | No -115)

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UFC 306: O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

It’s hard to envision O’MALLEY (-140) not getting the job done here. The frequent guest on “Kill Tony” is just the more exciting fighter, capable of ending this thing at any time.

If Dvalishvili (+115) is to turn the tables and claim the belt, it’s going to end up going the distance as he wows the judges. O’Malley will punch his way to victory and won’t allow Dvalishvili to hang around and bore the crowd.

For method of victory, it’s a good idea to back O’MALLEY BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+125) at plus-money on the 5-way line.

Over/Under (O/U)

Looking to the round betting, NO (+125): FIGHT TO START ROUND 5 is a good bet. I don’t think O’Malley lets it get that far.

If you’d like a little more wiggle room looking for a Round 5 finish, Under 4.5 Rounds (+100) at even-money is an OK play, too. I prefer the top option, however.

In addition, NO (-115): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a good play, too.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 242: Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 242 odds between Steve Garcia and Kyle Nelson, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round men’s featherweight bout on the main card, Steve Garcia and Kyle Nelson meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 242 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 100 and UFC Vegas 97 — at UFC Apex. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 242: Garcia vs. Nelson odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+ with the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Records: Garcia (16-5-0) | Nelson (16-5-1)

Garcia is a southpaw who enters this bout with a 4-inch reach advantage. The 32-year-old also has a 5.00-to-3.65 significant strikes landed per minute advantage while hitting those strikes at a 63.64% accuracy. On the flip side, Nelson is just 50.18% on his significant strikes.

In the takedown average, the difference is rather negligible, with Garcia holding a slim 1.27-to-1.10 lead. Both fighters have a 0.63 submission average, too.

Garcia, a.k.a. “Mean Machine,” enters this bout with 4 consecutive victories, all via KO/TKO. That includes a win over SeungWoo Choi last time out in just 96 seconds and a Round 2 KO/TKO of Melquizael Costa prior to that in Dec. 2023.

Garcia’s previous 6 bouts have ended by way of KO/TKO, with 5 wins. The last time he didn’t have an early finish was a unanimous-decision loss to Luis Pena in his UFC debut Feb. 29, 2020.

For Nelson, he has snapped onto track after a rough start to his UFC career. After going 1-4 in his 1st 5 bouts with the company, Nelson has 3 straight wins, including a KO/TKO in Round 1 against veteran Bill Algeo last time out. Prior to that, he had a pair of unanimous-decision victories over Fernando Padilla at Noche UFC and Blake Bilder at UFC 289.

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UFC Fight Night 242: Garcia vs. Nelson odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:32 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Garcia -180 (bet $180 to win $100) | Nelson +152 (bet $100 to win $152)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +136 | Under -174)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +450 | No -750)

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UFC Fight Night 242: Garcia vs. Nelson picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

It’s a little too expensive to back Garcia (-180) straight up on the 2-way moneyline, but despite the 3-bout win streak for Nelson (+152), the latter cannot be trusted.

Instead, let’s roll with GARCIA BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (-145) on the 5-way line. You could play just KO/TKO and DQ on the 7-way line, but it’s literally pennies more and you add the possibility of a tap out.

Over/Under (O/U)

OVER 1.5 ROUNDS (+136) is worth a roll of the dice here.

Yes, Garcia has 6 straight bouts decided by KO/TKO, with each of the past 5 fights not making it past the halfway point of Round 2. So, playing Over will take a little bit of a leap of faith.

However, Nelson has gone the distance in 4 straight fights, so he knows how to hang around and avoid the big kill shot.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 242: Jessica Andrade vs. Natalia Silva odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 242 odds between Jessica Andrade and Natalia Silva, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round women’s flyweight bout on the main card, Jessica Andrade and Natalia Silva meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 242 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 100 and UFC Vegas 97 — at UFC Apex. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 242: Andrade vs. Silva odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+ with the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Records: Andrade (26-12-0) | Silva (17-5-1)

The veteran Andrade snapped a 3-bout losing skid with a 2nd-round KO/TKO of Mackenzie Dern at UFC 295 in Nov. 2023. She followed that up with a split-decision win over Marina Rodriguez at UFC 300 in April, and she appears to be back on track.

Andrade is now 5 years removed from her title victory over Rose Namajunas at UFC 237 May 11, 2019, but “Bate Estaca” is still just 32 years old and very dangerous in the octagon.

Silva is a 27-year-old southpaw who has won all 5 fights since making her UFC debut with a unanimous-decision victory over Jasmine Jasudavicius June 18, 2022. She has 3 UD wins and 2 KO/TKO victories since making her company debut.

Silva has a 3-inch reach advantage over the veteran, and she stands 3 inches taller, too. Andrade is still a punching machine, though, holding a 6.62-to-4.53 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and she is much more accurate with 56.66% of those strikes landed, to just 49.78% for the favorite.

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UFC Fight Night 242: Andrade vs. Silva odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Andrade +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Silva -310 (bet $310 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -196 | Under +150)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -148 | No +116)

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UFC Fight Night 242: Andrade vs. Silva picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

It’s a strange position to see Andrade (+250), but she is a giant underdog to Silva (-310). This is a difficult fight to handicap, as the veteran still has plenty left in the tank and has had a resurgence of late. However, Silva is a heavy favorite who just has done everything right since joining the company.

PASS, and look to the distance instead. If you absolutely have to have action on this fight, the value is on the aging, but still very dangerous underdog Andrade.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (-148): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is not priced out of line.

Andrade went the distance last time out against Rodriguez. While that was a bit of a rarity for her, Silva has gone the distance in the past 2 bouts and 3 of her 5 fights since joining the UFC.

Playing Over 2.5 Rounds (-196) doesn’t make as much sense, as you need to risk nearly 2 times your potential return for just a little bit of wiggle room in the event of a late Round 3 finish.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 242: Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 242 odds between Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round welterweight bout in the main event, Gilbert Burns and Sean Brady meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 242 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 100 and UFC Vegas 97 — at UFC Apex. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC Fight Night 242: Burns vs. Brady odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+ with the main card starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Records: Burns (22-7-0) | Brady (16-1-0)

Burns heads into this one in a bit of a tailspin, as he was knocked out in Round 3 at UFC 299 by Jack Della Maddalena, and he was stopped via unanimous decision against Belal Muhammad at UFC 288. He hasn’t won since a UD victory against Jorge Masvidal at UFC 287 in April 2023.

Burns has ended up going the distance in 4 of his past 6 fights since losing a title bout to Kamaru Usman at UFC 258 in Feb. 2021, going 3-3 in those outings.

For Brady, he bounced back from a KO/TKO loss to Muhammad at UFC 280 with a 3rd-round kimura submission victory against Kelvin Gastelum. He has had 4 stoppages in the past 5 fights, with a lone unanimous-decision victory over Michael Chiesa Nov. 20, 2021, as the only fight to go the distance in the span.

Brady has a slight 1-inch reach advantage, while youth is also on his side at 31, as opposed to 38 years of age for Burns. Brady holds a slight 3.77-to-3.28 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, and he is more accurate with those strikes at 64.78%, to just 56.29% for the Brazilian.

Both are pretty solid on takedowns, as Brady’s average is 3.29, while Burns checks in at 2.24. As far as submission average, Brady is well ahead with a 1.21 mark, to just 0.50 for the veteran.

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UFC Fight Night 242: Burns vs. Brady odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Burns +154 (bet $100 to win $154) | Brady -184 (bet $184 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -132 | Under +104)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -116 | No -110)

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UFC Fight Night 242: Burns vs. Brady picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Brady (-184) is a little on the expensive side, costing nearly 2 times your potential return. That’s way too much risk for not nearly enough reward, so let’s get a little more specific.

The favorite is an absolute beast of a wrestler, and if he can get Burns (+154) to the canvas, it won’t end well for the 38-year-old.

Let’s back BRADY BY SUBMISSION (+1000) on the 7-way method of victory line for a chance to multiply our wagers by 10 times. Taking BRADY BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+225) on the 5-way line gives you a few more avenues to a winning ticket, but still at plus-money.

Over/Under (O/U)

NO (-110): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is a solid play, as I expect this one to end in a Brady victory and hopefully a submission for a massive payday.

In addition, UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS (+104) is worth a look at plus-money in the event Brady is aggressive early, getting the underdog to the mat quickly.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 62: Robert Valentin vs. Ryan Loder odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 62 odds between Robert Valentin vs. Ryan Loder, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round men’s middleweight bout on the main card, Robert Valentin and Ryan Loder meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 62 — also known as UFC Vegas 96 — at the UFC APEX. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 62: Valentin vs. Loder odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Valentin (11-3-0) | Loder (7-1-0)

The Swiss-born Valentin makes his UFC debut. He posted a 1st-round submission win over Paddy McCorry in The Ultimate Fighter 32 semifinal Aug. 13, and now he gets a shot at the main card in this event. He has posted 4 straight victories since a no contest against Pietro Penini at ARES FC 9 in Nov. 2022.

Loder, a.k.a. the “Man of Steel”, also won in a TUF 32 semifinal in late July, winning via unanimous decision against Omran Chaaban. He has won 3 straight bouts since a split-decision loss in a title fight with Troy Green in Urijah Faber’s A1 Combat 7 back in mid-Jan. 2023.

Both fighters are making their official UFC debuts.

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UFC on ESPN 62: Valentin vs. Loder odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Valentin -156 (bet $156 to win $100) | Loder +132 (bet $100 to win $132)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over +108 | Under -138)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +138 | No -176)

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UFC on ESPN 62: Valentin vs. Loder picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

The play is on VALENTIN (-156) straight up, although he’ll cost you a nice chunk of change.

He has not wasted any time getting to this point, posting 3 victories in Round 1 across his previous 4 outings. On the flip side, Loder (+132) has been impressive, but he has ended up going the distance in each of his past 2 bouts and 3 of the previous 4 fights.

Go with Valentin, who has been routinely getting finishes.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-138) is a good option. While, again, Loder has ended up going the distance in 2 straight fights and 3 of the previous 4 outings, Valentin doesn’t fool around. He hasn’t even made it to Round 2 in 3 of the previous 4 bouts.

In addition, it’s a good idea to roll the dice on VALENTIN BY SUBMISSION (+440) for the chance to more than multiply your wager by 4 times. He has won 3 of his past 4 fights by way of the method.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 62: Angela Hill vs. Tabatha Ricci odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 62 odds between Angela Hill vs. Tabatha Ricci, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round women’s strawweight bout on the main card, Angela Hill and Tabatha Ricci meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 62 — also known as UFC Vegas 96 — at the UFC APEX. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 62: Hill vs. Ricci odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Hill (17-13-0) | Ricci (10-2-0)

The 39-year-old Hill, a.k.a. “Overkill”, heads into this fight looking for a 3rd consecutive victory. The Alliance MMA fighter has really pieced things together since a 3-bout skid from Aug. 7, 2021, to May 14, 2022. She has won 4 of the past 5 bouts, with all but one of those fights going the distance. Hill picked up a 2nd-round submission win against Luana Pinheiro in mid-May.

Ricci picked up a split-decision win against Tecia Pennington last time out, bouncing back from a split-decision disappointment against Loopy Godinez in the previous fight at UFC 295. She has won 5 of her past 6 fights since dropping her company debut against Manon Fiorot June 5, 2021.

Hill is 10 years older than Ricci, and she holds a 3.5-inch reach advantage. In addition, Hill has a 5.38-to-4.28 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, too. The veteran is more accurate on those strikes at 52.26%, too, while Ricci is much better in the ground-and-pound.

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UFC on ESPN 62: Hill vs. Ricci odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:09 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Hill +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Ricci -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -600 | Under +370)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -460 | No +320)

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UFC on ESPN 62: Hill vs. Ricci picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

The veteran HILL (+110) still has some tricks up her sleeve, and she is the play at plus-money.

She’ll use her tremendous reach advantage to draw Ricci (-130) in and out at her choice while trying to keep this fight a toe-to-toe brawl. Hill cannot afford to lose her footing and get sucked into a wrestling match, or things will go much different.

Hill is a brawler, and she has a ton of punching power, but her ground game isn’t close to Ricci. As long as she can stay upright, Hill is in good shape.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes (-460): Will the fight go the distance? will set you back more than 4½ times, and that’s way too much risk for not enough reward.

Going with Over 2.5 Rounds (-600) is even more costly, and it makes less sense.

Instead, take HILL BY POINTS (+145) for the method of victory for a much better payout.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC on ESPN 62: Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 62 odds between Jared Cannonier vs. Caio Borralho, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round middleweight bout in the main event, Jared Cannonier and Caio Borralho meet Saturday at UFC on ESPN 62 — also known as UFC Vegas 96 — at the UFC APEX. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC on ESPN 62: Cannonier vs. Borralho odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.

Records: Cannonier (17-7-0) | Borralho (16-1-0)

Cannonier is looking to bounce back after a 4th-round KO/TKO loss against Nassourdine Imavov last time out in the main event in early June. He is 2-2 in his past 4 fights, including a unanimous-decision loss to Israel Adesanya at UFC 276 in a title fight.

Since making his debut, the southpaw Borralho has won 6 straight fights at the UFC level. He picked up a 2nd-round KO/TKO win at UFC 301 last time out against Paul Craig in early May. However, 4 of his 6 fights have ended up going the distance.

The 40-year-old Cannonier holds a 2.5-inch reach advantage, and he has a 4.62-to-2.91 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. The Brazilian fighter is much more accurate, however, posting a 68.36% significant strikes accuracy percentage and a 1.99 takedown average to just 0.47 for Cannonier. Borralho is much more accurate on takedown accuracy, too, at 63.16%.

Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC on ESPN 62: Cannonier vs. Borralho odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:49 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Cannonier +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Borralho -245 (bet $245 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over -112 | Under -112)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +108 | No -136)

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UFC on ESPN 62: Cannonier vs. Borralho picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

It’s experience against accuracy in this main event. Cannonier (+200) has the reach advantage, and he has fought for the title, but he is also in the twilight of his career now.

However, you can’t back Borralho (-245), as he’ll cost you well in excess of 2 times your potential return.

Go with BORRALHO BY POINTS (+200) for the chance to double up, as this fight should be one which goes all the way, with the judges determining a victor.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (+108): WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE? is worth a look, as Cannonier has ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 4 fights and 5 of his previous 7 bouts.

For Borralho, he has ended up going the distance in 4 of his 6 fights at the UFC level, too.

If you’d like a little wiggle room, in the event of a late Round 5 win, take OVER 4.5 ROUNDS (-112).

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC 305: Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 305 odds between Tai Tuivasa vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round heavyweight bout on the main card, Tai Tuivasa and Jairzinho Rozenstruik meet Saturday at UFC 305 at RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the UFC 305: Tuivasa vs. Rozenstruik odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m., and they can be viewed on ESPN+. The prelims begin at 8 p.m. ET, and they can be viewed on ESPN/ESPN+, while the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: Tuivasa (15-7-0) | Rozenstruik (14-5-0)

The Aussie Tuivasa is looking to wash away a 4-bout losing skid. He was choked out by Marcin Tybura in Round 1 last time out in mid-March in the main event. Prior to that, he lost to Alexander Volkov in Round 2 at UFC 293, and he was knocked out by Sergei Pavlovich and Ciryl Gane in the previous 2 matches. He needs a win badly, and will have the pro-Australia crowd to spur him on.

Rozenstruik, a.k.a. “Bigi Boy”, picked up the Round 4 KO/TKO win over Shamil Gaziev last time out in the Fight Night main event in early March. Despite the win, he is still just 4-5 across his previous 9 events since getting dropped in 20 seconds against Francis Ngannou at UFC 249.

Rozenstruik enters this fight with a 3-inch reach advantage over the southpaw, while Tuivasa has a slight 3.96-to-3.44 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Rozenstruik is just a little more accurate at 53.77% with those strikes, while the Aussie comes in at 52.39%.

Neither fighter is keen to get the fight to the mat, as both fighters have 0.00 takedown averages and submission averages, so expect a toe-to-toe brawl.

Watch the early prelims and prelims with ESPN+ by signing up here.

UFC 305: Tuivasa vs. Rozenstruik odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Tuivasa +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Rozenstruik -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 1.5 rounds (Over +150 | Under -192)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +400 | No -650)

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UFC 305: Tuivasa vs. Rozenstruik picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

It’s a bit of a leap of faith, but back TUIVASA (+190) as the big-time underdog. He will be fighting in front of a raucous RAC Arena in his native Australia, but he is also fighting for his UFC life. He cannot afford a 5th consecutive setback, or it might be the end of him with the promotion.

He’ll have to avoid the long reach of Rozenstruik (-230) if he is able to pull off the upset, as the Suriname fighter has a 3-inch reach advantage. However, the significant strikes landed per minute and the accuracy are basically the same.

The Aussie is 5 years younger, and he’ll have the crowd on his side. It’s now or never for Tuivasa.

Over/Under (O/U)

Neither Under 1.5 Rounds (-192) nor No: Will the fight go the distance? (-650) is worth playing. Both have way too much risk and not nearly enough reward.

A better option for method of victory would be rolling with TUIVASA BY KO/TKO (+270) for a chance to nearly triple up. Neither of these fighters will be able to get the submission, so that method can be mostly ignored.

In addition, Tuivasa hasn’t gone the distance in the past 10 bouts dating back to June 8, 2019, while Rozenstruik hasn’t needed the help of the judges to determine a winner in his past 4 bouts.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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