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UFC 309: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 309 odds between Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round middleweight bout, Bo Nickal and Paul Craig battle at UFC 309 Saturday at Madison Square Garden on the main card. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 309: Nickal vs. Craig odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET on hulu/ESPN+, while the prelims get started at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNews/FX/hulu/ESPN+. The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on Pay-Per-View (PPV).

Records: Nickal (6-0-0) | Craig (17-8-1)

Nickal has picked up 3 wins in 3 appearances at the UFC level, and he has had finishes in each of the outings. Nickal wasted no time with a first-round submission of Jamie Pickett in his company debut at UFC 285, while making quick work of Val Woodburn in just 38 seconds with a KO/TKO at UFC 290.

Nickal had to go a little deeper against Cody Brundage last time out at UFC 300, but he ended up with the submission win in Round 2, his second victory via the method in 3 UFC battles.

Craig lost via KO/TKO to Caio Borralho last time out at UFC 301, falling in 2 rounds, and he is just 1-4 in the previous 5 fights. His lone win was a KO/TKO is Andre Muniz on July 22, 2023. He has been knocked out twice in the past 5 fights, while losing via submission once, with a unanimous decision setback, too.

The reach length for both fighters is identical at 76 inches. The southpaw Nickal has just 1.64 significant strikes landed per minute, but he is very accurate at 72.94% on those strikes. He also has a ridiculous 7.46 takedown average and submission average. Once you go to the mat with Nickal, it’s not going to end well.

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UFC 309: Nickal vs. Craig odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list UFC odds. Lines last updated at 2:27 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Nickal -1400 (bet $1,400 to win $100) | Craig +830 (bet $100 to win $830)
  • Total rounds: 1.5 Rounds (Over +142 | Under -180)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +610 | No -1100)

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UFC 309: Nickal vs. Craig picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Nickal (-1400) will set you back 14 times your potential return. It’s not wise to bet such a strong favorite straight up. Even if it seems like a sure thing, there is just no value betting such a heavy favorite for such a small return. Even as part of a multi-leg parlay, it makes no sense.

You can make money in this fight by playing a 4-leg Same Game Parlay, however, using these plays:

  • Nickal by submission: Method of victory (+200)
  • Nickal: Most significant strikes (-235)
  • Under: 1.5 total rounds (-180)
  • No: Will the fight go the distance?

If you bet this 4-LEG SAME-GAME PARLAY (+444), a $10 wager nets a profit of $44.40 with a total payout of $54.40.

Over/Under (O/U)

If you prefer not to do the SGP above, or are perhaps worried about the potential of a knockout, UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS (-180) is pricey, but still the best play in terms of fight length. You can’t mess with No: Will fight go the distance? (-1100) as that requires risking 11 times the return.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC 309: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 309 odds between Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round heavyweight championship bout in the main event, Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic battle at UFC 309 Saturday at Madison Square Garden. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET on Hulu/ESPN+, while the prelims get started at 8 p.m. ET on ESPNews/FX/Hulu/ESPN+. The main card begins at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: Jones (27-1-0) | Miocic (20-4-0)

Jones returned to the octagon after a 3-year absence, posting a first-round submission win over Ciryl Gane to snatch the heavyweight strap at UFC 285 in his step up to the heavyweight division. The 37-year-old is making his way back from a torn pectoral muscle, which pushed this event back more than a year.

Miocic last fought at UFC 260, losing in a second-round KO/TKO against Francis Ngannou in a championship bout. The greatest heavyweight in UFC history now gets a shot at the most decorated fighter in company history in an epic showdown between 2 fighters at the tail end of their careers.

Miocic is a punching machine who will want to try and keep this an upright brawl, while Jones will want to get him down to the canvas to get all serpentine on the former champ, looking for a submission victory.

Jones has a 4.5-inch reach advantage, while the difference in significant strikes landed per minute, as well as the accuracy on those strikes, is fairly negligible.

Jones has an ever-so-slight 1.93-to-1.86 takedown average, with a 45.36% takedown accuracy percentage, to just 34.25% for Miocic. Bones has a 0.48 submission average, too, which he’d love to improve.

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UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list UFC odds. Lines last updated at 1:24 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Jones -700 (bet $700 to win $100) | Miocic +475 (bet $100 to win $475)
  • Total rounds: 2.5 Rounds (Over +110 | Under -145)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +300 | No -500)

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UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Jones (-700) will cost you more 7 times your potential return, if you’re looking to back him straight up. That’s way too much risk for not enough reward.

As far as Miocic (+475) is concerned, the layoff has just been too much, and that makes him a super risky pick. It would be an amazing upset, and frankly, it’s stunning to see the former champ, and one of the most dominant heavyweights in UFC history, as such a heavy underdog. It’s tempting to play him straight up.

The best course of action is to take JONES BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+100) at even money. Miocic has been away a while, and it won’t end well against Jones, one of the best to ever do it.

Over/Under (O/U)

UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-145) may be the best play on the board.

Jones has actually ended up going the distance in 3 of his past 4 fights, but those distance bouts were from March 2019 to Feb. 2020. In his most recent bout in March 2023, he needed just 2:04 to submit Gane.

For Miocic, he has seen just 2 of his past 10 fights go the distance, and 5 of those fights didn’t make it out of the first round. It would be stunning to see this one last into the night.

As far as No (-500): Will fight go the distance?, that’s just way too much risk for not nearly enough reward.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 246: Erin Blanchfield vs. Rose Namajunas odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 246 odds between Erin Blanchfield vs. Rose Namajunas, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round women’s flyweight bout in the co-main event, Erin Blanchfield and Rose Namajunas meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 246 — also known as UFC on ESPN+ 104 — at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 246: Blanchfield vs. Namajunas odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, while the main card begins at 8 p.m. ET.

Records: Blanchfield (12-2-0) | Namajunas (14-6-0)

Blanchfield suffered a unanimous-decision loss against Manon Fiorot March 30 in a Fight Night main event. It was her first loss at the UFC level after winning her first 6 fights with the company. She has ended up going the distance in 4 of her 7 UFC fights, while recording 3 submission victories.

Namajunas has recorded 2 straight unanimous-decisions wins over Amanda Ribas and Tracy Cortez, and she has ended up going the distance in 5 consecutive fights.

Blanchfield has a slight 1-inch reach advantage over “Thug,” and she has a 5.47-to-3.70 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Blanchfield is much more accurate with those strikes, too, hitting at a 54.04% clip, while Namajunas lands just 46.66% of those significant strikes.

In the takedown average, Blanchfield has managed a 2.05 mark, while Namajunas checks in at 1.55. Namajunas is much more accurate in takedown accuracy, posting an impressive 53.19% mark, while Blanchfield has a solid 1.02 submission average.

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UFC Fight Night 246: Blanchfield vs. Namajunas odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 12:20 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Blanchfield -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Namajunas +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -250 | No +175)

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UFC Fight Night 246: Blanchfield vs. Namajunas picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

BLANCHFIELD (-140) is an outstanding play straight up. As long as she can avoid going to the mat with Namajunas (+115) — where the former 2-time strawweight champ is at her best — Blanchfield will get the job done.

This is a fight that should be able to go the distance. Backing BLANCHFIELD BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+125) at plus-money to win on points has good value, too, if you want to get specific. However, playing the moderate favorite straight isn’t terrible and gives you a win if she gets a KO/TKO or submission, too. It really depends on how conservative of a bettor you are.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes: Fight to go the distance (-250) will cost you 2½ times your potential return, and that’s quite expensive straight up. However, as part of a multi-leg parlay, it can be excused tossing it in.

However, AVOID playing this prop by itself.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 246: Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Dustin Stoltzfus odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 246 odds between Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Dustin Stoltzfus, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round middleweight bout on the main card, Marc-Andre Barriault and Dustin Stoltzfus meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 246 – also known as UFC on ESPN+ 104 – at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 246: Barriault vs. Stoltzfus odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Records: Barriault (16-8-0) | Stoltzfus (15-6-0)

The Canadian Barriault fights in his native country looking to snap a 2-bout skid. He suffered a first-round KO/TKO last time out against Joe Pyfer at UFC 303 last time out in late June. Before that, he suffered a split-decision loss against Chris Curtis at UFC 297. His most recent win was against Eryk Anders on UFC 289 in a unanimous-decision victory.

For Stoltzfus, he was knocked out at the end of Round 1 against Brunno Ferreira in early June, and he is just 2-5 in his past 7 fights. He has tapped out twice, while losing via KO/TKO twice, and once via unanimous decision.

Stoltzfus holds a 1-inch reach advantage, although Barriault is well ahead with a 6.12-to-3.51 significant strikes landed per minute advantage. Stoltzfus is slightly more accurate at 56.61%, and he is well ahead in takedown average at 2.45-to-0.21. As such, Barriault will want to avoid going to the mat, where Stoltzfus has a 1.02 submission average.

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UFC Fight Night 246: Barriault vs. Stoltzfus odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 12:10 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Barriault -200 (bet $200 to win $100) | Stoltzfus +165 (bet $100 to win $165)
  • Total Rounds: 2.5 Rounds (Over -145 | Under +110)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -110 | No -120)

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UFC Fight Night 246: Barriault vs. Stoltzfus picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Barriault (-200) will set you back 2 times your potential return if you were to play him straight up on the 2-way line. That’s too expensive straight up, so let’s get specific.

Barriault will be trying to stay upright, as Stoltzfus (+165) is at his best on the mat, and that’s where he could get the job done against the Canadian fighter.

The favorite will likely be very careful, and this could be a fight where the crowd gets a little impatient with the slow pace. BARRIAULT BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+150) is the best way to go.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES (-110): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE? is a safe play, especially if you want a little action on the fight, and you don’t necessarily want to declare a winner.

Barriault has gone the distance in 2 of the past 3 fights, but be careful. Stoltzfus hasn’t gone the distance since July 16, 2022 against Dwight Grant, finishing inside the distance in each of his past 3 bouts.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and us on Facebook.

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UFC Fight Night 246: Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 246 odds between Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round flyweight bout in the main event, Brandon Moreno and Amir Albazi meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 246 – also known as UFC on ESPN+ 104 – at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 246: Moreno vs. Albazi odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Records: Moreno (21-8-2) | Albazi (17-1-0)

Moreno is looking to bounce back after a split-decision loss to Brandon Royval last time out in the main event on Feb. 24. That setback came on the heels of a championship bout loss to Alexandre Pantoja at UFC 290 in July 2023. His last victory came in a TKO – Doctor’s Stoppage against Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 283 Jan. 21, 2023.

Albazi picked up a split-decision win against Kai Kara-France June 3, 2023, in his most recent appearance in a fight night main event. Since making his UFC debut on July 18, 2020, he has picked up 5 victories, including 2 submission victories, a KO/TKO win over Alessandro Costa, and 2 decision victories.

Moreno holds a 2-inch reach advantage, and he has a 3.87-to-2.80 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, too. Moreno is more accurate at 50.29%, while Albazi has managed a 48.57% mark. The takedown average difference is negligible, while Moreno is more accurate in that category, too, going 46.88%.

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UFC Fight Night 246: Moreno vs. Albazi odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 12:05 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Moreno -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Albazi +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -200 | No +150)

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UFC Fight Night 246: Moreno vs. Albazi picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

MORENO (-165) is worth a look as a moderate favorite over the Iraqi challenger. He is just 2 fights removed from fighting for a championship at this weight class, and he is looking to bounce back and position himself for another run at the strap.

Albazi (+140) has won each of his fights at the UFC level, but outside of Kara-France, he hasn’t faced a great level of talent.

We’ll roll the dice on MORENO BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+125) at plus-money. He has gone the distance in each of the past 2 outings, and 4 of the previous 7 fights.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES: FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE (-200) is a little on the expensive side, costing you 2 times your potential return. Straight up, it isn’t a great wager, but if you fold it into a multi-leg parlay, it can be excused.

Albazi went the distance last time out, and he has needed the judges to determine a winner in 2 of his past 4 fights.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC 308: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakic odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 308 odds between Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakic, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round light heavyweight bout on the main card, Magomed Ankalaev and Aleksandar Rakic meet Saturday at UFC 308 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 308: Ankalaev vs. Rakic odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 10 a.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 2 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: Ankalaev (19-1-1) | Rakic (14-4-0)

Ankalaev picked up a 2nd-round KO/TKO against Johnny Walker last time out in the main event in mid-January, rebounding from a 1st-round no contest in late Oct. 2023. Prior to that, he fought to a draw at UFC 282 against Jan Blachowicz in Dec. 2022 in a title fight.

Rakic has dropped the past 2 fights, both via KO/TKO, against Jiri Prochazka and Jan Blachowicz. He also has a losing record, going 2-3 in the past 5 fights.

Rakic enters the octagon with a 3-inch reach advantage, while also posting a 4.26-to-3.64 significant strikes landed per minute lead. The significant strikes accuracy percentage is nearly identical, with Rakic holding a slight lead at 63.74% to 63.20% for Ankalaev.

The Russian fighter has a slight 1.02-to-0.76 takedown average advantage, while posting a 31.25% takedown accuracy percentage.

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UFC 308: Ankalaev vs. Rakic odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Ankalaev -400 (bet $400 to win $100) | Rakic +300 (bet $100 to win $300)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -160 | No +115)

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UFC 308: Ankalaev vs. Rakic picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Ankalaev (-400) will cost you 4 times your potential return if you bet the favorite on the 2-way moneyline. That’s way too much risk for not nearly enough return.

Instead, let’s get a little more specific. The Russian fighter is a punching machine and knockout specialist. He has won 5 of his past 10 fights via KO/TKO, with only 1 of those KOs making it to Round 3. As such, ANKALAEV BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+200) is a strong play on the 5-way line. You could play Ankalaev by KO/TKO or DQ (+225) on the 7-way line, but why not add the submission for a small price?

Over/Under (O/U)

NO: FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE (+115) is worth a look at plus-money.

Ankalaev has managed to go the distance in just 5 of his 13 fights at the UFC level. On the flip side, Rakic has had just 3 fights go the distance in 7 bouts since Dec. 8, 2018. Ankalaev is trying to get back into the title picture, so he’ll be letting the big punches fly early and often.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC 308: Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 308 odds between Robert Whittaker vs. Khamzat Chimaev, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round middleweight bout on the main card, Robert Whittaker and Khamzat Chimaev meet Saturday at UFC 308 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 308: Whittaker vs. Chimaev odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 10 a.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 2 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: Whittaker (27-7-0) | Chimaev (13-0-0)

The former champ Whittaker is looking to position himself for another title shot. Since losing to Israel Adesanya at UFC 271 for the title, he has rebounded with 3 wins in the past 4 fights, with only a 2nd-round KO/TKO against current champ Dricus du Plessis at UFC 290.

Whittaker has ended up going the distance in 6 of his past 8 fights since July 25, 2020, while going the distance 8 times in the previous 11 outings.

Chimaev is a perfect 7-for-7 since arriving at the UFC level, posting a majority-decision win against Kamaru Usman at UFC 294 last time out over a calendar year ago Oct. 21, 2023. He has finished inside the distance in 5 of the past 7 fights with the company.

Chimaev holds a 1.5-inch reach advantage, while posting a 5.72-to-4.58 significant strikes landed per minute lead. Chimaev is way more accurate on those strikes, posting a 70.43% mark to just 45.96% for Whittaker. Chimaev is also much better in the ground game, posting a 3.99 takedown average and 2.66 submission average. On the flip side, Whittaker has a 0.80 takedown average and just a 38.10% takedown accuracy percentage.

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UFC 308: Whittaker vs. Chimaev odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 10:05 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Whittaker +185 (bet $100 to win $185) | Chimaev -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -110 | Under -120)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +250 | No -375)

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UFC 308: Whittaker vs. Chimaev picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Chimaev (-225) seems like an unstoppable force, but Whittaker (+185) is a tough customer. However, it’s all about the unbeaten fighter who is representing the host nation of United Arab Emirates. You can’t risk more than 2 times your potential return on the 2-way line, as it is just too expensive for a standalone wager.

This is a titanic battle, and Chimaev has ended up going the distance in 2 of the past 3 fights. Whittaker has needed the help of the judges in 6 of the previous 8 outings.

CHIMAEV BY DECISION (+600) is worth a roll of the dice for the chance to multiply your initial return by 6 times.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES: FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE (+250) is a strong play for the chance to win 2½ times your money, especially if you want action on the fight and you’d prefer not to declare a winner.

In 10 of the past 15 fights for Whittaker, he has ended up going the distance dating back to Nov. 14, 2015. Chimaev has ended up needing the help of the judges twice in the past 3 outings.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC 308: Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC 308 odds between Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 5-round featherweight championship bout in the main event, Ilia Topuria and Max Holloway meet Saturday at UFC 308 at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 10 a.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 2 p.m. ET on pay-per-view.

Records: Topuria (15-0-0) | Holloway (26-7-0)

Topuria puts his strap on the line for the 1st time after claiming the featherweight championship against Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 298. He has won all 7 fights at the UFC level, with just 2 of those bouts going the distance. He has 4 KO/TKO wins, including the title bout against Volkanovski, while submitting Bryce Mitchell at UFC 282.

Holloway has won 3 straight fights since a unanimous-decision loss to Volkanovski in a title fight at UFC 276. He has back-to-back KO/TKO wins over Justin Gaethje and Chan Sung Jung, but prior to that he had 8 consecutive decisions, going 4-4 in those fights.

The Georgian champ is 5 years younger than “Blessed”, although the latter has a 7.17-to-4.40 significant strikes landed per minute advantage over Topuria. The significant strikes accuracy percentage is basically even, with Holloway at 49.64% and Topuria at 49.40%.

In the ground game, Topuria is very good, posting a 1.92 takedown average, while he is 56.25% in takedown accuracy percentage. The champ has a sparkling 1.28 submission average, to just 0.32 for Holloway.

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UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 9:44 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Topuria -275 (bet $275 to win $100) | Holloway +225 (bet $100 to win $225)
  • Over/Under: 4.5 rounds (Over +100 | Under -130)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +120 | No -165)

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UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Topuria (-275) will set you back nearly 3 times your potential return, and there is no way to justify betting that straight up. If you were to toss the Georgian champ into a multi-leg parlay, it could be excused betting such a high number.

However, let’s get a little more specific. Holloway (+225) has ended up going the distance in 8 of the past 10 fights. While Topuria has had just 1 fight go the distance in the past 6 outings, this is a huge step up in opponent.

Look for TOPURIA BY POINTS (+250) to get the job done in a knockdown, drag-out fight.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES: FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE (+120) is worth a look at plus-money.

Topuria has ended up fighting into the 2nd round in each of the past 4 outings, while winning via unanimous decision against Josh Emmett in the main event June 24, 2023, in a Fight Night.

For Holloway, he has ended up going the distance 8 times in the past 10 outings, and the Gaethje knockout at UFC 300 came at 4:59 of Round 5, just a single second short of going the distance.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 245: Charles Johnson vs. Sumudaerji odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 245 odds between Charles Johnson vs. Sumudaerji, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round flyweight bout on the main card, Charles Johnson and Sumudaerji meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 245 — also known as UFC Vegas 99 and UFC on ESPN+ 103 — at the UFC Apex. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 245: Johnson vs. Sumudaerji odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Records: Johnson (16-6-0) | Sumudaerji (16-6-0)

Johnson has picked up 3 straight victories after a 3-bout losing skid from Feb. 24-Nov. 18, 2023. All 3 of the losses came via decision, too. He has ended up going the distance in 5 of his previous 6 fights. Last time out, he stopped Joshua Van in a 3rd-round KO/TKO on July 13, however.

Sumudaerji has dropped the past 2 bouts, each by submission, including a 1st-round loss to Tim Elliott. His last victory came in a unanimous decision against Zarrukh Adashev Jan. 20, 2021.

The 33-year-old Johnson has a slight 4.83-to-4.64 significant strikes landed per minute advantage, while he is also slightly more accurate than the Chinese southpaw at 56.79% to 55.94%.

In the ground game, neither is particularly strong, with Johnson posting a 0.38 takedown average, with Sumudaerji checking in at 0.29. The southpaw has a slight 0.59-to-0.50 lead in submission average.

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UFC Fight Night 245: Johnson vs. Sumudaerji odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Johnson -250 (bet $250 to win $100) | Sumudaerji +195 (bet $100 to win $195)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -185 | No +135)

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UFC Fight Night 245: Johnson vs. Sumudaerji picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Johnson (-250) will cost you 2 1/2 times your potential return, and that’s way too expensive straight up. If you were to toss him into a multi-leg parlay, it could be excused.

Instead of playing Johnson on the 2-way line, look to the method of victory. JOHNSON BY DECISION/TECHNICAL DECISION (+100) at even-money is a much better play. He has ended up needing the help of the judges to determine a winner in 5 of his past 6 fights, and 7 of his 9 outings since joining the UFC.

Over/Under (O/U)

YES: FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE (-185) is a little on the pricey side, but if you’re wavering on the overall winner, and still want action the fight, this is the way to go.

Again, Johnson has ended up going the distance in 7 of his 9 fights at the UFC level, while Sumudaerji has had 2 decisions in the past 5 bouts.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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UFC Fight Night 245: Rob Font vs. Kyler Phillips odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 245 odds between Rob Font vs. Kyler Phillips, with MMA picks and predictions.

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In a 3-round bantamweight bout on the main card, Rob Font and Kyler Phillips meet Saturday at UFC Fight Night 245 — also known as UFC Vegas 99 and UFC on ESPN+ 103 — at the UFC Apex. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s UFC odds around the UFC Fight Night 245: Font vs. Phillips odds, and make our expert picks and predictions.

The prelims begin at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

Records: Font (20-8-0) | Phillips (12-2-0)

The 37-year-old veteran Font is looking to snap a 2-bout skid. He also has dropped 4 of his past 5 outings, although losses to the likes of Jose Aldo, Deiveson Figueiredo, Cory Sandhagen and Marlon Vera is nothing to be ashamed about. Those aren’t exactly tomato cans.

Font has ended up going the distance in each of his past 2 losses, and 5 of the past 6 bouts. He has finished inside the distance in just 2 of his past 10 fights since July 7, 2018, too.

For Phillips, he takes the walk with 3 consecutive victories, including a unanimous-decision win over Pedro Munhoz last time out at UFC 299. He has ended up going the distance in 2 in a row, and 4 of the past 5 outings.

Phillips has an ever-so-slight half-inch reach advantage, while he has a slight 5.72-to-5.53 significant strikes landed per minute lead. Phillips is also just a little more accurate at 48.53%, to just 47.81% for Font.

On takedowns, Phillips is well ahead with a 2.41 mark, to just 0.89 for Font. Phillips is way more accurate on takedowns, too, posting a 46.88% takedown accuracy percentage, to just 35.14% for the veteran Font. Phillips also leads in submission average, posting a 0.48-to-0.34 lead.

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UFC Fight Night 245: Font vs. Phillips odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of UFC odds. Lines last updated at 12:45 p.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Font +400 (bet $100 to win $400) | Phillips -550 (bet $550 to win $100)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -190 | No +140)

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UFC Fight Night 245: Font vs. Phillips picks and predictions

Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)

Phillips (-550) is an overwhelming favorite, as he looks to take down the veteran Font (+400) and position himself for a run at the bantamweight championship. If he is to realize that, he can’t lose to a veteran that is struggling lately.

Phillips does so many things well, and he is the more well-rounded fighter at this point of his career.

Still, you can’t risk 5 times your potential return. Let’s get more specific instead. PHILLIPS ON POINTS (-140) is the best play, as he has gone the distance in 4 of his past 5 outings, with 3 wins via the method.

Over/Under (O/U)

Yes: Fight to go the distance (-190) is quite pricey, and this bet comes with a disclaimer. You cannot make this play straight up, but if you incorporate it onto a ticket with several other legs of an MMA parlay, or a mixed sport ticket, then it isn’t that bad.

Visit MMA Junkie for more fight news and analysis.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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