UFC Fight Night 174 betting picks

UFC on ESPN 12: Mike Perry vs. Mickey Gall odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 12 fight between Mike Perry and Mickey Gall, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and bets.

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Mike Perry and Mickey Gall tangle in a welterweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN 12 – also known as UFC Fight Night 174 – Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.

Perry (13-6) heads into this one looking to pick himself up and dust himself off after being dropped in his last fight, a Round 1 loss to Geoff Neal Dec. 14, 2019 at UFC 245. In fact, Perry is on a two-fight skid and is 2-5 over his past seven fights, so he could use a signature win. Five of the past eight have ended up going the distance, with Perry on the short end in three of those bouts. His specialty is the knockout, and four of his six victories at the UFC level have come via KO/TKO.

Gall (6-2) doesn’t have a long fight history as a pro, but most of it has been very good. In seven fights at the UFC level, he has recorded five victories, with four wins by submission. He is 5-0 as a professional via submission, too. Gall has never won a fight by KO/TKO, although he was knocked out by Diego Sanchez at UFC 235 (March 2, 2019). Only two of Gall’s fights have been decided by the judges, with one a unanimous decision victory over Salim Touahri Aug. 3, 2019 on the UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler card.

Want to place a bet on UFC on ESPN 12? Place bets at BetMGM online in CO, IN, NJ and WV! New customer offer: Risk-free first bet! Visit BetMGM for terms and conditions. Bet now!

Mike Perry vs. Mickey Gall betting odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, June 26 at 6:45 a.m. ET.

Perry (-313) is just too expensive on the 2-way line, especially considering he is just 2-5 across his past seven bouts. Still, he has fought an impressive array of fighters, and Gall (+250) is a drop in quality of an opponent. In fact, if Perry can avoid Gall’s unorthodox methods and just brawl, avoiding him on the mat, Perry will cruise to the win. Still, Perry is a bit of an enigma, and betting him straight up by laying more than three times your potential return is a bit worrisome. AVOID.

PERRY TO WIN BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (-164) is a little more palatable, although you still have to munch on some considerable chalk. Get specific for values, namely by betting rounds. Look for the fight to FINISH IN ROUND 2 (+300), so you can turn a tidy profit if that comes into fruition. PERRY TO WIN BY KO/TKO/DQ IN ROUND 2 (+500) is worth a roll of the dice, too. I’d AVOID the total number of rounds bet here, but if you must, UNDER 2.5 rounds (-264) should be the play.

New to sports betting? A $10 bet on Perry (-313) would bet a profit of only $3.19. A $10 wager on Perry to win by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission (-164) nets a profit of $6.10. A $10 play on Perry to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round (+500) would fetch a nice return of $50 profit.

To watch the full card, sign up for ESPN+ now.

If you want some action on this MMA bout, place your wagers at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and analysis, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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UFC on ESPN 12: Brendan Allen vs. Kyle Daukaus odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 12 fight between Brendan Allen and Kyle Daukaus, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and bets.

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Brendan Allen and Kyle Daukaus meet up in a middleweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN 12 – also known as UFC Fight Night 174 – Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.

Allen (14-3) made his UFC debut Oct. 18, 2019 when he dusted Kevin Holland in Round 2. Allen’s next UFC fight was on the Benavidez-Figueiredo card Feb. 29 in Jacksonville, where he won in a first-round KO/TKO vs. Tom Breese. Allen has won each of his past six professional fights, last losing Jan. 26, 2018 at LFA 32 in a title bout against Anthony Hernandez in a unanimous decision. Allen has only lost once inside the distance, a rear-naked choke submission loss at LFC 52: Legacy Fighting Championship 52 against Trevin Giles in March 2016. Each of Allen’s past three bouts have finished inside the distance, and two didn’t even see the bell to end Round 1.

Daukaus (9-0) has yet to taste defeat in his professional MMA career, but this will be his first foray into the octagon as a UFC fighter. In his most recent event, he picked up a submission win over Nolan Norwood at CFFC 81: Cage Fury Fighting Championships 81 to earn the middleweight strap. Now Daukaus gets to battle another up-and-comer in what could be an impressive fight. He has posted eight wins by submission and one unanimous decision win, but has never seen an opponent quite as strong or talented as Allen.

Want to place a bet on UFC on ESPN 12? Place bets at BetMGM online in CO, IN, NJ and WV! New customer offer: Risk-free first bet! Visit BetMGM for terms and conditions. Bet now!

Brendan Allen vs. Kyle Daukaus betting odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, June 26 at 7:05 a.m. ET.

The sample sizes on both Allen (-304) and Daukaus (+240) are rather small. It’s a tempting play to take Daukaus at a solid value, especially since he has never suffered a pro setback, but he is just too much of an unknown quantity. The best course of action is to AVOID playing the 2-way line and focus on more specifics.

There will be a bit of a feeling-out process in this one, so I like the play of TOTAL NUMBER OF ROUNDS OVER 1.5 (-130). I’m not 100 percent confident we’ll see the judges get involved in the decision, but I don’t feel it is going to be a super quick match, either. Instead of picking a particular fighter to win, simply bet how the fight will finish. Go with SUBMISSION (-106) at near even-money for the win.

New to sports betting? A $10 wager on Allen (-304) on the 2-way line returns a profit of just $3.29. A $10 play on OVER 1.5 rounds (-130) nets a profit of $7.69, while going with a submission (-106) by either opponent as the method of victory fetches a return of $9.43.

To watch the full card, sign up for ESPN+ now.

If you want some action on this MMA bout, place your wagers at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and analysis, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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UFC on ESPN 12: Gian Villante vs. Maurice Greene odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 12 fight between Gian Villante and Maurice Greene, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and bets.

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Gian Villante and Maurice Greene lock horns in a heavyweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN 12 – also known as UFC Fight Night 174 – Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.

Villante (17-11) finds himself at a severe disadvantage for this one in more ways than one. First off, Greene (8-5) towers over Villante by four inches, while also having four-inch reach advantage. What’s more, Greene checks in at 243 pounds to just 205 pounds for Villante.

The weight situation could be to Villante’s advantage, however, as he is lighter on his feet and a little more agile. That weight situation is an advantage for Greene should the fight be taken to the ground, however.

Villante’s last time out ended in a Round 1 knockout loss to Michal Oleksiejczuk on the Blachowicz-Santos card Feb. 23, 2019. Villante has lost consecutive bouts on just one occasion in 15 fights at the UFC level, and that was back in 2017. Four of his past five fights have ended up going the distance, and he has never won or lost via submission at the UFC level.

Greene is also coming off a Jan. 18 loss, falling by submission to Aleksei Oleinik at UFC 246. Each of Greene’s previous three outings have finished inside the distance, a stark contrast to Villante, with two of the three ending via KO/TKO. Greene is 1-1 in those two affairs. He has posted five wins by submission in his career, with the last one coming in the TUF 28 Finale against Michel Batista Nov. 30, 2018.

Want to place a bet on UFC on ESPN 12? Place bets at BetMGM online in CO, IN, NJ and WV! New customer offer: Risk-free first bet! Visit BetMGM for terms and conditions. Bet now!

Gian Villante vs. Maurice Greene betting odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, June 26 at 7:25 a.m. ET.

Greene (-239) is a heavy favorite over the shaky Villante (+190). Playing Greene on the 2-way line is a bit expensive. Instead, consider taking GREENE BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (-112) at near even-money, with the only way you lose is if Villante pulls the upset or the fight is decided by the judges. So, this is easily your best bet.

UINDER 2.5 ROUNDS (-176) is a good way to go, too, as each of Greene’s past three fights have finished inside the distance. He doesn’t like to waste time. In fact, a nice wager would be pinpointing the round for a finish. Taking ROUND 2 (+350) for a finish could be quite lucrative. If you “REALLY” want to roll the dice, Greene by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (note, submission is not included in this wager) pays +550. Why not toss a couple of dollars on that for fun?

New to sports betting? A $10 bet on Greene by KO/TKO, DQ or Submission (-112) returns a profit of $8.93. A $10 wager on Under 2.5 Rounds (-176) returns a net profit of $5.68, while a $10 play on the fight ending in Round 2 (+350) would cash a ticket for $35 profit.

To watch the full card, sign up for ESPN+ now.

If you want some action on this MMA bout, place your wagers at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and analysis, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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UFC on ESPN 12: Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 12 fight between Dustin Poirier and Dan Hooker, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and bets.

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Dustin Poirier and Dan Hooker square off in a lightweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN 12 – also known as UFC Fight Night 174 – Saturday at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET on EPoiSPN/ESPN+.

Poirier (25-6) enters as the favorite in this bout despite the fact he faces a three-inch disadvantage in both height and reach. The southpaw does dominate in the other categories, particularly his ability for the takedown. He holds a 1.55 to 0.43 takedown-average advantage, while also leading 37.88 to 28.57 in takedown accuracy and 1.18 to 0.33 in submission average. In other words, Poirier will be looking to get to the ground and pound early and often. However, he can more than handle himself with aplomb when going toe-to-toe, too, holding a 49.08 to 45.85 significant strikes accuracy-percentage advantage. Poirier is coming off a loss, but that was a setback against Khabib Nurmagomedov for the lightweight strap at UFC 242. He has been idle since that Round 3 submission loss Sept. 7, 2019. Keep in mind, five of his past six have finished inside the distance.

Hooker (20-8) posted a split-decision win in the main event Feb. 22 against Paul Felder, for his 10th victory at the UFC level. Hooker is on a 3-0 heater, including a KO/TKO victory over James Vick last July 20. Five of Hooker’s past eight events have ended with a KO/TKO, including four wins. He is also 2-0 at the UFC level with wins by submission, while going 7-2 in his pro career. The Kiwi can win fights a number of ways, and doesn’t like to go very long into the night. Six of his previous eight bouts have finished inside the distance.

Want to place a bet on UFC on ESPN 12? Place bets at BetMGM online in CO, IN, NJ and WV! New customer offer: Risk-free first bet! Visit BetMGM for terms and conditions. Bet now!

Dustin Poirier vs. Dan Hooker betting odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, June 26 at 6:10 a.m. ET.

Poirier (-228) is a bit of a heavy favorite, but rightly so. While Hooker (+185) is 3-0 across his past three bouts, and has the ability to win in a number of ways, Poirier is the more well-rounded fighter. His punching ability is tremendous – he has landed seven knockdowns, tied for fourth in the lightweight division. He has an 0.85 knockdown average per 15 minutes, third in the division. Poirier is also second among active lightweights with 6.51 significant strikes landed per minute, while possessing a 1.77 striking differential over his opponents. Taking POIRIER BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (-106) on the 5-way line at near even-money is the way to go.

I think Hooker has the ability to hang around and make Poirier work deep into the night for this win, although ultimately the favorite wins it inside the distance. Still, OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-106) is the way to go. For a small-unit wager, I’d play POIRIER TO WIN IN ROUND 3 (+1000) and/or POIRIER TO WIN IN ROUND 4 (+1400). If you bet both and he wins in either of those rounds, you’re cashing big.

New to sports betting? A $10 bet on Poirier (-228) to win on the 2-way line returns a profit of just $4.39. A $10 wager on Poirier (-106) to win by submission, or OVER 2.5 total rounds (-106), results in a return of $9.43. Selecting Poirier (+1000) to win in Round 3 returns a profit of $100 on a $10 bet, while a win in Round 4 by Poirier (+1400) would fetch a profit of $140 on $10 bet.

To watch the full card, sign up for ESPN+ now.

If you want some action on this MMA bout, place your wagers at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and analysis, visit SportsbookWire.com.

Follow @JoeWilliamsVI on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

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