UFC Fight Island 3 – Syndication Server

UFC on ESPN 14: Mauricio Rua vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 14 fight between Mauricio Rua and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and bets.

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Mauricio Rua and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira lock horns in a light heavyweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN 14 Saturday at the UFC’s Fight Island facility on Yas Island, United Arab Emirates. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET.

Want to place a bet on UFC on ESPN 14? Place bets at BetMGM online in CO, IN, NJ and WV! New customer offer: Risk-free first bet! Visit BetMGM for terms and conditions. Bet now!

Rua (26-11-1) heads into this one looking for redemption after a split-decision draw last time out against Paul Craig Nov. 16, 2019. It’s a fight Rua felt he should have won. He is now 1-1-1 across his past three fights, and has recorded a pair of knockout victories in the past four bouts. Three of his past four outings, and six of the previous nine, have finished inside the distance. He has yet to pick up a win at the UFC level via submission, but is 0-2 by submission with a loss to Chael Sonnen Aug. 17, 2013 in the main event.

Nogueira (23-9) managed to last just 2:07 in the first round against Ryan Spann, falling by KO/TKO at UFC 237 on May 11, 2019. Nogueira will be looking for a little redemption in this one, as he lost by unanimous decision to Rua back on Aug. 1, 2015 at UFC 190. This is actually the third meeting between these two warriors, as Rua also won via unanimous decision at PRIDE: Critical Countdown 2005. Each of the 44-year-old’s past four fights have finished inside the distance, winning two and losing two. He has never had a submission victory or loss at the UFC level.

Mauricio Rua vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira betting odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

RUA (-193) looks to cap off the trilogy by going a perfect 3-for-3, and there is no reason to doubt he can do it. However, the two previous fights have gone the distance, so tread lightly. Taking RUA BY DECISION (+375) could be a very lucrative decision, and it’s a sound small-unit play based upon the previous two matchups.

If you don’t feel Rua can do it again, but aren’t feeling Nogueira, playing the “fight finish” prop is a good idea. Winning on DECISION (+200) will double your investment. OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (+150) can be a nice payday, too, and you have a little wiggle room in case there is a late finish in Round 3.

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UFC on ESPN 14: Robert Whittaker vs. Darren Till odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN 14 fight between Robert Whittaker and Darren Till, with MMA betting odds, picks, tips and bets.

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Robert Whittaker and Darren Till tangle in a middleweight bout on the main card at UFC on ESPN 14 Saturday at the UFC’s Fight Island facility on Yas Island, United Arab Emirates. The prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, followed by the main card set for 8 p.m. ET.

Want to place a bet on UFC on ESPN 14? Place bets at BetMGM online in CO, IN, NJ and WV! New customer offer: Risk-free first bet! Visit BetMGM for terms and conditions. Bet now!

Whittaker (21-5) looks to pick himself up and dust himself off after a title bout beatdown at the hands of Israel Adesanya last time out at UFC 243 on Oct. 5, 2019. Whittaker was dumped in Round 2 at the 3:33 mark in that one, but he is still 9-1 across the past 10 outings with four KO/TKO wins and five decision victories. Whittaker hasn’t registered a submission win or loss since he had to tap vs. Hoon Kim in a match Oct. 30, 2011 at LFC: Legends Fighting Championship 6, so don’t waste your money playing submission results in the props. Three of Whittaker’s past five outings, and seven of the previous 13, have finished inside the distance, though.

For Till (18-2-1), losing hasn’t been a regular occurrence for the southpaw Briton. He picked up a split-decision win over Kelvin Gastelum last time out at UFC 244, slapping the brakes on a two-bout losing skid as a welterweight. Those two losses were against Jorge Masvidal (March 16, 2019) and Tyron Woodley (Sept. 8, 2018) in a title bout, so not a lot of shame in that game. Till then elected to move up to 185 pounds. Three of his previous five finished inside the distance, although he has never posted a submission victory at the UFC level. His last submission win was way back on Nov. 29, 2014 against Sergio Matias at AFC: Aspera FC 14, so a tap out in this one isn’t likely. It will either be decided on points or by knockout.

Robert Whittaker vs. Darren Till betting odds

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 9 a.m. ET.

TILL (+105) is a nice play as a slight underdog in this one. While Whittaker (-125) lands 4.77 significant strikes per minute to 2.41 for Till, the Brit is much more accurate with the fists. Till will look to tire Whittaker in the clinch, and that’s where he has the biggest advantage of all.

Will this fight go the distance? Let’s go with a rather weak NO (-143). In other words, expect the judges not to be involved, but don’t put a lot on that. In fact, betting UNDER 4.5 ROUNDS (-134) is a little cheaper, and probably a better play.

I don’t have a strong lean toward Till or the Under in rounds, but I do feel as if this one will end in a KO/TKO/DQ (-125) one way or the other. It’s best not to focus on which fighter will win, but HOW it will end. Look for a KO/TKO as the best bet.