Raphael Assuncao and Cody Garbrandt tangle in a bantamweight bout on the main card at UFC 250 at the UFC’s Apex Facility in Las Vegas. The card kicks off Saturday at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+ and on pay-per-view.
Assuncao (27-7) is looking to pick himself up and dust himself off after dropping his past two fights, a submission loss to Marlon Moraes Feb. 2, 2019 and a unanimous decision setback to Cory Sandhagen at UFC 241 last time out Aug. 17, 2019. Despite the pair of losses, Assuncao still has an overall impressive body of work. He is fourth among all active bantamweights with 651 total strikes landed and he is first overall among active bantams with a 68.7 percent significant strike defense, which will be helpful against the big bomber Garbrandt.
Garbrandt (11-3) heads into this one with a three-inch height advantage over Assuncao, who actually has a one-inch reach advantage. Garbrandt will likely come out throwing a flurry of fists early in this bout. Six of his previous seven fights have ended via KO/TKO, winning three and losing three. His last outing was a Round 1 knockout loss at the hands of Pedro Munhoz March 2, 2019 at UFC 235. While Garbrandt enters on a three-bout losing skid, two of the setbacks were against TJ Dillashaw, including one match for the bantamweight strap, so it looks worse than it appears. Garbrandt ranks No. 1 among active fighters in his class with a knockdown average of 1.60 per 15 minutes. He also hasn’t fought past 2:41 of the second round in six of his past seven fights, so don’t expect a lengthy affair if he has his druthers.
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Rafael Assuncao vs. Cody Garbrandt betting odds
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday, June 5 at 7 a.m. ET.
Assuncao (+115) is a slight underdog against GARBRANDT (-139), and rightly so. Despite a three-bout losing skid, Garbrandt still possesses the ability to end this thing early – remember, two of those three defeats were vs. Dillashaw, a champion.
While Assuncao hasn’t been knocked out in 14 professional bouts dating back to his UFC debut, a KO/TKO loss to Erik Koch March 19, 2011, taking GARBRANDT BY KO/TKO/ or DQ (+170) is worth a small-unit wager. Perhaps hedging with Garbrandt to win on points (+260) is a solid investment, too, just in case.
As mentioned, Garbrandt hasn’t been going very deep into fights lately, while eight of Assuncao’s past 10 outings have gone to the judges with him winning six of the eight decisions. As such, OVER 1.5 (-182) for the total number of rounds is a good play. Lastly, it’s worth taking GARBRANDT TO WIN BY KO/TKO/DQ IN ROUND 2 (+700). Don’t mortgage the kids’ college fund or anything, but that’s quite an attractive prop with a nice 7-to-1 payday.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on Garbrandt (-139) to win on the 2-way line returns a profit of $7.19. A $10 wager on Garbrandt to win via KO/TKO or DQ (+170) nets a return of $17, while betting OVER 1.5 total rounds (-182) fetches a profit of $5.49.
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