The UCF Golden Knights (10-3, 1-0 AAC) battle the No. 3 Houston Cougars (13-1, 1-0) at Hofheinz Pavilion in Houston Saturday. Tip is set for 2 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the UCF vs. Houston odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.
The Cougars beat Tulsa 89-50 Wednesday, covering a 20-point spread as road favorites. Houston is 10-4 against the spread (ATS) this season. They are 8-1 at home and 3-0 on the road as well as 2-0 on neutral courts. Houston ranks No. 1 in opponents’ points per game (49.9) and opponents’ field goal percentage (32.8%).
UCF, on the other hand, beat Wichita State 52-45 Wednesday, pushing as 7-point home favorites. The Golden Knights are 2-2-1 ATS over their last 5 games and 7-5-1 ATS on the season. Their strength is also defensive, ranking 16th in opponents’ points per game (59.6) and 30th in opponents’ field goal percentage (38.8%).
Rankings courtesy of the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll.
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UCF at Houston odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:15 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): UCF +700 (bet $100 to win $700) | Houston -1400 (bet $1,400 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): UCF +15.5 (-110) | Houston -15.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 119.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
UCF at Houston picks and predictions
Prediction
Houston 64, UCF 54
Moneyline
PASS.
Houston is the far better team, but it is unplayable here. UCF, considering it lost to No. 16 Miami by 2, could be worth a look at (+700), but I would ultimately prefer to play it plus the points.
Against the spread
BET UCF +15.5 (-110).
UCF is being underrated by the market here. The Golden Knights have 3 losses, but those were to two Power 5 programs (Miami and Missouri) and then their first game of the season against UNC Asheville in overtime. Every loss was by 3 or less as well.
They have 4 players that average double figures and should have versatility in their scoring, at least enough to score on Houston at a competent rate. As for Houston, the only game it was a favorite of 10-19, it failed to cover, winning as 19-point favorites against Kent State (49-44) Nov. 26.
Ultimately, given what UCF has shown this season, back UCF +15.5 (-110).
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 119.5 (-115).
Houston has gone 2-4-1 O/U in its last 7 games. Its defense is the real deal, and while I expect UCF to be able to score, the Under should still be the better play.
Houston is 4-9-1 O/U while UCF is 5-8 O/U this season. UCF is 4-6 O/U this season and 1-2 O/U in its last 3 games.
Back the UNDER 119.5 (-115).
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