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The Tampa Bay Rays (69-70) welcome the Minnesota Twins (75-64) to Tropicana Field Thursday for the finale of their 4-game series. First pitch is set for 1:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Rays lead 4-2
The Rays beat the Twins 9-4 Wednesday, winning their 2nd straight game in the series. Tampa Bay won 2-1 Tuesday after losing the series opener 5-4 on Monday. The rays are 4th in the AL East and have won 3 of their last 7 games. Tampa Bay is 69-70 against the spread (ATS) and 37-37 at home.
The Twins have disappointed since opening the series with a win. They are very much in the playoff picture, sitting 2nd in the AL Central. Minnesota has had issues as of late, going 5-11 over its last 16 games. The Twins are 36-34 on the road and 65-74 ATS. They won 2 of 3 against the Toronto Blue Jays in the series prior.
Twins at Rays projected starters
RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Taj Bradley
Lopez (13-8, 4.05 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 155 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 2/3 IP, 0 ER (0 R), 6 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 2-0 home win over Toronto Friday
- 2024 away stats: 7-4, 4.11 ERA (81 IP, 37 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 14 starts
- Career vs. Rays: 1-3, 4.05 ERA (40 IP, 18 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 7 starts
Bradley (6-9, 4.35 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 109 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 2 1/3 IP, 8 ER (8 R), 8 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 13-5 road loss to the San Diego Padres Friday
- 2024 home stats: 3-6, 3.92 ERA (59 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 12.4 K/9 in 11 starts
- Career vs. Twins: 0-0, 5.06 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.50 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 2 starts
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Twins at Rays odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:02 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins -136 (bet $136 to win $100) | Rays +116 (bet $100 to win $116)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+128) | Rays +1.5 (-154)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -122 | U: +100)
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Twins at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 5, Rays 3
Moneyline
BET TWINS (-136).
The Rays have performed poorly this season following a win. They sit in the bottom 3rd of the league with a 28-40 record after a victory. Tampa Bay is 1-4 in the games after its last 5 wins.
The Twins are 32-31 following a loss and should have the pitching advantage Thursday as well. Minnesota has scored at least 4 runs in 3 of its last 4 games, so it should be able to score a few and use Lopez’s dynamic pitching to do the rest.
Take TWINS (-136).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
There’s no great value here. The Twins are too risky to entertain on the spread over the moneyline, and the Rays are too expensive as a run-line underdog.
Over/Under
BET OVER 7 (-122).
Minnesota has consistently hit the Over this season. The Twins are 71-64-4 O/U and have gone Over in 3 of their last 5 games, scoring at least 5 runs in 2 of their last 3 games.
The Rays have gone Over in 5 of their last 7 games and are 5-1-1 O/U in those. They have allowed at least 4 runs in 6 of their last 7 games while having scored at least 4 runs in 4 of their last 6.
Considering those trends, take OVER 7 (-122).
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