The San Diego Padres (53-47) host the Minnesota Twins (56-46) Sunday for the rubber match of their 3-game interleague series finale at Petco Park with the 1st pitch set for at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Minnesota evened the series with a 7-4 victory Saturday after getting crushed Friday 10-1. Twins SS Carlos Correa and CF Byron Buxton both hit home runs and combined for 3 RBIs.
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Twins at Padres projected starters
RHP Dylan Bundy vs. LHP Sean Manaea
Bundy is 6-4 with a 5.02 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 84 1/3 IP across 17 starts.
- Last start: No-decision in Minnesota’s 7-6 loss at the Milwaukee Brewers Tuesday with 4 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 2 HR, 2 BB and 5 K.
- 2022 road splits: 3-3 with a 6.41 ERA (53 1/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.52 WHIP, 10 HR and 7.9 K/9 in 11 starts.
Manaea is 5-5 with a 4.33 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9 in 104 IP over 18 starts.
- Last start: Lost 12-4 Monday at the Detroit Tigers with 3 1/3 IP, 9 R (4 ER), 8 H, 2 HR, 1 BB and 4 K.
- 2021 vs. the Twins: 1 start, a 7-0 home win April 20 while pitching for the Oakland Athletics with 7 scoreless IP, 6 H, 1 BB and 7 K.
Twins at Padres odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:08 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Twins +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Padres -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins +1.5 (-165) | Padres -1.5 (+133)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Twins at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Padres 6, Twins 5
Money line
LEAN PADRES (-150) because they are 4-1 straight up (SU) as home favorites of -140 or greater with Manaea on the mound.
Whereas the Twins (+125) are just 4-7 SU in Bundy’s road starts with a minus-27.0% return on investment (ROI).
Also, Bundy struggles when pitching on short rest. He is 1-2 with a 7.26 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in 4 days of rest, both are the worst marks for any of Bundy’s rest splits this season.
It’s only a LEAN to the PADRES (-150) because the Over is my favorite look in this game and the line is moving toward the Twins (+125) even though nearly 80% of the action is on San Diego, per Pregame.com. This line movement means oddsmakers could be laying a trap with the Padres.
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Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Padres -1.5 (+133) isn’t a big enough payout considering they are just 13-28 RL as home favorites and 1-4 RL as home favorites of -140 or greater with Manea on the bump.
On the other hand, the Twins +1.5 (-165) are 14-9 RL as road underdogs and 6-5 RL in Bundy’s road starts.
Over/Under
BET OVER 8.5 (-110).
The Padres are 8-0-1 O/U vs. AL teams and 11-6-1 O/U in Manaea’s 18 starts. The Twins are 8-1-2 O/U in Bundy’s road starts and 16-6-1 O/U as road underdogs.
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