The Minnesota Twins (1-1) play the Milwaukee Brewers (1-1) Sunday at American Family Field. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Sunday’s meeting is the rubber match of this three-game set. The Twins won a pitcher’s duel 2-0 Saturday to even the series. The Brewers took Thursday’s opener 6-5 in 10 innings.
Minnesota LHP Jose Berrios pitched six perfect innings with 12 strikeouts Saturday before turning it over to the bullpen, which eventually lost the no-hitter and perfect game but held on for the win.
Brewers RHP Corbin Burnes also flirted with a no-hit bid. He didn’t allow a hit until Twins CF Byron Buxton‘s solo homer in the top of the 6th, which ended up being Burnes’ final batter.
Season series: Tied 1-1.
RHP Michael Pineda takes the hill Sunday for the Twins. Pineda was 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 in 26 2/3 IP across 5 starts in 2020.
He didn’t make his first start last season until Sept. 1 because he was serving a 60-game suspension that started in 2019.
- Last start vs. Brewers: No-decision (6 IP, 3 ER, 3 H, 6 K, 0 BB) in a 5-4 loss May 27, 2019.
- 2021 Spring Training: 0-0 with a 7.04 ERA (7 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 14 H, 10 K, 1 BB) in 2 starts.
RHP Adrian Houser makes his first start of the season for the Brewers. 2020 was a rough year for Houser, who was 1-6 with a 5.30 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 56 IP over 12 games (11 starts).
- 2020 vs. Twins: 0-1 with 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 K and 1 BB in 1 start.
- 2021 Spring Training: 1-0 with a 5.60 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 11 ER, 21 H, 16 K, 6 BB) across 6 starts.
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Twins at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Twins -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Brewers -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Twins -1.5 (+140) | Brewers +1.5 (-165)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
Prediction
Brewers 6, Twins 3
Money line (ML)
Bet BREWERS (-105) for 1 unit because I favor Milwaukee’s Houser over Minnesota’s Pineda in the starting pitching matchup.
Twins DH Nelson Cruz had an impressive plus-12 run value vs. sinkers last season and Houser’s most used pitch is a sinker. Since the Brew Crew are the home team, this game is played under National League rules, which doesn’t have a DH. Because Cruz doesn’t play the field, the only chance Minnesota has at using him is as a pinch hitter.
Plus, there are a few indicators Houser could have a bounce-back season in 2021.
Houser’s FIP was only slightly lower than his ERA, but his BABIP was high (.325), which is a luck-based metric, and Houser’s hard-hit percentage, exit velocity and fly-ball rate are far lower than MLB averages.
Finally, I think Pineda will pitch closer to his 2021 Spring Training form this season—which was poor—than his awesome 2020 regular-season performance.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS with a “LEAN” on Brewers +1.5 (-165) because I could be into a parlay with Milwaukee’s run line and another run line or a favorite’s money line to get an even- or plus-money payout.
Over/Under (O/U)
PASS because despite being very confident in Milwaukee’s pitching staff there’s just too wide a range of outcomes for Pineda. If 2020 Pineda is on the mound, I’d bet the Under but I’m staying away from this total.
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