The Dallas Mavericks (13-14) host the Portland Trail Blazers (15-10) Sunday for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off at American Airlines Center. Below, we analyze the Trail Blazers-Mavericks NBA odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Portland is red-hot coming into Sunday’s contest as a winner of three in a row and five of its previous six games (5-1 against the spread). Two of those wins came against the current 1-seed of the Eastern Conference, Philadelphia 76ers, but the rest were to sub-.500 teams.
The Mavericks are also starting to come alive, winning four straight and five of their last six; however, they covered in only two of those games. Dallas’ offense has looked great over its last six games, ranking second in offensive rating, first in assist-to-turnover rate, and third in effective field-goal percentage.
These teams split last season’s series 2-2 (straight up and ATS). Both All-Star PGs were fantastic in those meetings: Trail Blazers PG Damian Lillard averaged 42.5 points per game on .533/.429/.902 and Mavericks PG Luka Doncic put up 29.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 8.8 assists last season.
Trail Blazers at Mavericks: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:25 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Trail Blazers +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Mavericks -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Trail Blazers +5.5 (-115) | Mavericks -5.5 (-105)
- Over/Under: 235.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Trail Blazers at Mavericks: Key injuries
Trail Blazers
- SG Rodney Hood (foot) questionable
- SG C.J. McCollum (foot) out
- C Jusuf Nurkic (wrist) out
- PF Zach Collins (ankle) out
Mavericks
- None affecting the betting lines.
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Trail Blazers at Mavericks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Trail Blazers 124, Mavericks 118
Money line (ML)
The banged-up Trail Blazers need Lillard to play at an MVP-caliber and he is delivering. Dame is fourth in points per game (29.0) and ninth in assists per game (7.2), but most importantly, he does work against Dallas.
Lillard has scored 30 or more in seven of his last eight games against the Mavs, and he shot over 50% from the field in five straight. It’s unlikely this Dallas team will be able to keep Dame in check.
In fact, Dame Time takes into effect in the fourth quarter and the Mavs are a bad fourth-quarter team; Portland is fifth in clutch net rating while Dallas is 24th. If this game is within a couple of possessions late, I trust Dame to close it out. GIMME TRAIL BLAZERS (+170) for a quarter-unit.
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Against the spread (ATS)
BET TRAIL BLAZERS +5.5 (-115) heavier or instead of the money line. Portland is 4-2 ATS in road games vs. losing teams and Dallas 1-3 ATS in home games vs. winning teams.
Both are terrible defensively, however, according to CleaningTheGlass.com, Portland is 6-1 with a plus-5.3-point ATS margin and is third in net efficiency vs. bottom-10 teams in defensive efficiency. Dallas is 3-2 with the 19th-ranked net efficiency and a minus-4.7 ATS margin, which ranks 28th.
Over/Under (O/U)
The last five Trail Blazers-Mavericks games went Over the projected total and it’s hard to see this one not follow suit.
Either team is capable of scoring in the 130s to help push the game Over if the other team is shooting poorly and neither team can defend. I prefer sides more than totals so I only lean OVER 235.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit if at all.
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Also see:
- Bet Slippin’ Podcast
- Hoops Hype rumors: Blazers | Mavericks
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